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Brexit: Now What? Part III

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ceptimus said:
We've already said that we won't install any physical infrastructure on the NI-Ireland border. If the EU insist on installing physical infrastructure on the EU side of the border, then it's up to them to persuade the Irish to build it.

Paradoxically the EU (and some remain enthusiasts here) insist that no one wants any such infrastructure but that it *must* be built anyhow. The EU further insist that we must significantly define the form of any such infrastructure before moving on to possible trade talks that might result in the infrastructure not being required - and certainly any trading agreements reached (or not) will determine the amount of checks and paperwork they'll require whenever goods or people pass across the border.
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It doesn't have to be built, no.

There are some drawbacks to having a customs policy that basically runs on the honor system, however.

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That Irish border will be a bootlegger and smugglers dream. Any price differences will see booze, tobacco and fuel flowing across. It will be impossible to police.
 
ceptimus said:
We've already said that we won't install any physical infrastructure on the NI-Ireland border. If the EU insist on installing physical infrastructure on the EU side of the border, then it's up to them to persuade the Irish to build it.

Paradoxically the EU (and some remain enthusiasts here) insist that no one wants any such infrastructure but that it *must* be built anyhow.
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We've been though this before, in earlier posts; haven't we? If you want to leave the EU there is no need, in addition, to want border checks. They're going to be there whether you want them or not. They follow from the UK leaving the single market. In the past there was a Common Travel Area. That depended on Ireland incorporating UK immigration regulations into its own laws. But I don't think that'll work with Ireland constrained by EU rules.

The alternative: we hand loyal true N Ireland over to swarms of border-crossing foreign interlopers and have a "Border" in U.K. Mainland points of entry.

However, if you think you've seen people not wanting things, just wait till you see how May's lambeg playing chums respond to that idea. The DUP don't want it. It's happened before.
After the war, the Irish re-instated their previous provisions allowing free movement but the British declined to do so pending the agreement of a "similar immigration policy" in both countries. Consequently, the British maintained immigration controls between the islands of Ireland and Great Britain until 1952, to the consternation of Northern Ireland's Unionist population.​

Apart from saying "we don't want it so it won't happen", have you any other ideas on how to resolve this border conundrum?
 
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3point14 said:
"Simply" returning to WTO rules isn't as simple as it may have been portrayed...

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41581705


Really, at what point do the rubes realise they've been played by Boris, Nigel and Aaron and come out and say so?
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Are there laws on the books saying foreign goods must have proof of inspection, etc. in order to sell them at a retail location or any other such "point of sale" liability upon merchants in the UK?

If so, then any uncertainties in customs scrutiny then falls upon the businesses in ways that will reduce productivity and/or increase liability insurance/lawyer retainer fees, etc. This will then be passed on to the consumer in the form of increased prices.

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Craig B said:
Apart from saying "we don't want it so it won't happen", have you any other ideas on how to resolve this border conundrum?
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I didn't say that. We (the UK) are NOT going to install any border infrastructure. Remember that the UK wants free trade to continue after Brexit and if we get our way, then just the same as it's been for the last few decades, no border checks for goods will be necessary.

If the EU insist on non-free trade, we intend to use softer means of deterring smuggling and such - paperwork trails, number plate recognition - that sort of thing.

If the EU wants to install border infrastructure on their side of the border that's up to them (and the Irish) and they'll have to pay for it.
 
ceptimus said:
We've already said that we won't install any physical infrastructure on the NI-Ireland border.
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No Theresa May has said that, which given her track record means nothing. Campaigned for Remain, insisted she wouldn't call an early general election, flip-flopped on the public sector pay cap, student debt, and council homes. The woman is at best spineless at worst an out and out liar.
 
ceptimus said:
I didn't say that. We (the UK) are NOT going to install any border infrastructure. Remember that the UK wants free trade to continue after Brexit and if we get our way, then just the same as it's been for the last few decades, no border checks for goods will be necessary.

If the EU insist on non-free trade, we intend to use softer means of deterring smuggling and such - paperwork trails, number plate recognition - that sort of thing.

If the EU wants to install border infrastructure on their side of the border that's up to them (and the Irish) and they'll have to pay for it.
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How does it work to have an open border between the UK and the EU whilst still controlling movement of goods or people?
 
If the EU insist on non-free trade, we intend to use softer means of deterring smuggling and such - paperwork trails, number plate recognition - that sort of thing.
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Lol.

As soon as there is a price difference or tariff one way or the other on fags, booze and fuel the stuff will be going backwards and forwards by the van load.


paper trail? what paper?

ANPR? On every farm track and back lane along the border?
 
jimbob said:
How does it work to have an open border between the UK and the EU whilst still controlling movement of goods or people?
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We (the UK) don't want to control the movement of goods between Ireland and the UK, so that's not a concern to us.

We do want to control the movement of people, but we also don't want to cause tension - and perhaps eventually fighting/war by scrapping the Good Friday Agreement - so we have to consider the pros and cons.

We've determined that the installation of hard physical infrastructure at the border is likely to provoke violence so we think it better not to do that, and instead attempt to police the movement of people across the border by softer means. We can hope to find most people illegally living or working on the UK side of the border by means of employment records, tax returns, housing records, bank accounts and similar. Of course that won't catch 100% of illegal immigrants, but neither does a hard border. Admittedly the soft border will be more porous to illegal migration than a hard border but we consider that a price worth paying to hopefully preserve peace.

If the EU insist in installing hard border infrastructure on their side, then they need to raise the money to build it and convince the Irish that it's necessary. If it does get built and, regrettably, result in conflict and violence, then unfortunately both sides will have to deal with that. This would be a terrible tragedy so I hope the EU won't be so stupid as to go down that road; I don't have much confidence in the EU behaving sensibly though so I pin my hopes more on the Irish people and government refusing to install such a dangerous folly - regardless of the EU's demands.
 
Dangerous Folly? When the cheap fags booze and fuel starts to flow into NI and puts legit importers and wholesalers out of business and robs the exchequer of the extortionate duty revenue the govt will soon be asking for a hard border.
 
ceptimus said:
We (the UK) don't want to control the movement of goods between Ireland and the UK, so that's not a concern to us.

We do want to control the movement of people, but we also don't want to cause tension - and perhaps eventually fighting/war by scrapping the Good Friday Agreement - so we have to consider the pros and cons.

We've determined that the installation of hard physical infrastructure at the border is likely to provoke violence so we think it better not to do that, and instead attempt to police the movement of people across the border by softer means. We can hope to find most people illegally living or working on the UK side of the border by means of employment records, tax returns, housing records, bank accounts and similar. Of course that won't catch 100% of illegal immigrants, but neither does a hard border. Admittedly the soft border will be more porous to illegal migration than a hard border but we consider that a price worth paying to hopefully preserve peace.

If the EU insist in installing hard border infrastructure on their side, then they need to raise the money to build it and convince the Irish that it's necessary. If it does get built and, regrettably, result in conflict and violence, then unfortunately both sides will have to deal with that. This would be a terrible tragedy so I hope the EU won't be so stupid as to go down that road; I don't have much confidence in the EU behaving sensibly though so I pin my hopes more on the Irish people and government refusing to install such a dangerous folly - regardless of the EU's demands.
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This is disingenuous claptrap. You know full well that if the UK leaves the customs union both the UK and Ireland will have to have customs checks at the border, as per WTO rules. You also know that if the UK starts importing substandard food products from third countries, the Irish will erect a hard border as quick as they possibly can to prevent Irish agricultural products from being tainted with chlorinated chicken, hormone stuffed beef and the like.

Any fall out that results in terms of a breakdown in the peace process and/or a breakdown in NI's economy will be Britain's problem to deal with.
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Dangerous Folly? When the cheap fags booze and fuel starts to flow into NI and puts legit importers and wholesalers out of business and robs the exchequer of the extortionate duty revenue the govt will soon be asking for a hard border.
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What makes you think booze and fags will be cheaper on the EU side of the border?

In any case, this sort of thing already happens at lots of borders - including the existing Irish border or have Ireland and the UK somehow harmonized all the duties on alcohol, fags and everything else? Anyone living near the border will routinely cross it to buy petrol, fags, food, whatever on whichever side is the cheapest.
 
Things will be cheaper because the UK Govt stick extortionate duty on these three items and with the state the economy will be in when this is all over they will ramp it up even more.
 
ceptimus said:
What makes you think booze and fags will be cheaper on the EU side of the border?

In any case, this sort of thing already happens at lots of borders - including the existing Irish border or have Ireland and the UK somehow harmonized all the duties on alcohol, fags and everything else? Anyone living near the border will routinely cross it to buy petrol, fags, food, whatever on whichever side is the cheapest.
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Which is fine because both countries are in the single market and the customs union. Leaving both those things is a game changer for NI far more than for any other region of the UK.
 
Strawberry said:
This is disingenuous claptrap. You know full well that if the UK leaves the customs union both the UK and Ireland will have to have customs checks at the border, as per WTO rules. You also know that if the UK starts importing substandard food products from third countries, the Irish will erect a hard border as quick as they possibly can to prevent Irish agricultural products from being tainted with chlorinated chicken, hormone stuffed beef and the like.

Any fall out that results in terms of a breakdown in the peace process and/or a breakdown in NI's economy will be Britain's problem to deal with.
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I like how you say that Ireland will erect a hard border as quick as they can, but any resulting breakdown in the peace protest will be the UKs problem.

Anyway, you're entitled to your opinion. Time will tell who was right.
 
ceptimus said:
I like how you say that Ireland will erect a hard border as quick as they can, but any resulting breakdown in the peace protest will be the UKs problem.

Anyway, you're entitled to your opinion. Time will tell who was right.
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It will be the UK's problem. Its the British government which has the job of running NI, so who else is going to deal with the problems there?
 
Captain_Swoop said:
Things will be cheaper because the UK Govt stick extortionate duty on these three items and with the state the economy will be in when this is all over they will ramp it up even more.
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So there must already be plenty of cross border selling of stuff from Ireland if the Irish government don't put extortionate duty on these items? I've not noticed the hundreds of trucks thundering across the border stuffed with booze and fags, but perhaps I've not been observant enough.

If the Irish and UK governments impose different levels of duty on things like alcohol at present, then why are you so worried that they might continue to do so after Brexit? What's the difference?

It's strange that in my frequent travels to Northern Ireland and Ireland, I don't notice how incredibly cheap stuff becomes when I cross the (open) border. Sure the locals all drive to the cheapest side to fill up with petrol and do their shopping, but the price differences don't seem to be high enough to make mass "smuggling" (or whatever you want to call it when the borders are open) worthwhile.
 
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