Brexit: Now What? Part III

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So looks like food of the non chlorinated chicken kind may get cheaper post Brexit (it was very generous of all those Brexit voting farmers to vote against their economic interests). From the FT which requires registering and maybe a bit technical:

https://www.ft.com/content/92bb5636-a95b-11e7-ab55-27219df83c97

To summarise a number of WTO countries are objecting to the proposed splitting between the UK & EU of low tariff quotas on imports of their countries agricultural products as they may limit their ability to export at low tariff levels to the two.

Anyway if this happens the UK may have to accept lower tariffs than it wanted to on some agricultural imports. So good news on Brexit! (assuming you're ignore the wider context of countries (especially the US) not being willing to bend over backwards to give the UK everything it wants under WTO rules or you're a farmer).
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Same story covered here: http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news...w-to-may’s-brexit-plans/ar-AAsV1RW?li=BBx1bGE without needing a subscription.
 
One of my sisters is a bit upset about Brexit. She thinks it will end up with her children going to Australia. My own experience is that Polish hotel staff and Rumanian restaurant waiters, and waitresses, are very efficient. Boris Bonkers does not seem to be particularly interested in places like Liverpool.

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So May is hardly being reassuring about Brexit In her latest speech:

The UK has set out how it could operate as an "independent trading nation" after Brexit, even if no trade deal is reached with Brussels.
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Hooray! 'Only Fools and Horses' is back. "You plonker Theresa!"

She rejected existing models for economic co-operation, such as membership of the European Economic Area or the Canadian model, calling instead for a "creative" solution that would be "unique" to the UK.
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Is 'have your cake and eat it' actually a solution?
On Northern Ireland, she said the government had begun "drafting joint principles on preserving the Common Travel Area, and associated rights and we have both stated explicitly we will not accept any physical infrastructure at the border".
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And you know Theresa May, not one to suddenly do a 180 on something she stated explicitly wouldn't happen..

All quotes from:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41546701
 
Farm incomes may halve after Brexit according to study

The report, by the Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), says the "worst-case scenario" would cut average farm profits from £38,000 a year to just £15,000.

The analysis tries to model the effects of cheaper imported food, reduced subsidies and more expensive labour.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41570648

Is there any set of circumstances in which Brexit is abandoned as a bad job because of the consequences ?

"We know you want to keep foreigners out and sell potatoes by the pound, but it'll bankrupt the country and we'll need the foreigners anyway"
 
The Don said:
Farm incomes may halve after Brexit according to study

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41570648

Is there any set of circumstances in which Brexit is abandoned as a bad job because of the consequences ?

"We know you want to keep foreigners out and sell potatoes by the pound, but it'll bankrupt the country and we'll need the foreigners anyway"
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The problem is congitive dissonance. The more bad news seep in about Brexit the more Brexitards cling to the necessity of Brexit.

Counterinutitively, good news about Brexit could might make abandoning Brexit more viable. All you need is a flock of invisbile pink unicorns for the Royal guard, so to speak.

McHrozni
 
The Don said:
Farm incomes may halve after Brexit according to study
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41570648

Is there any set of circumstances in which Brexit is abandoned as a bad job because of the consequences ?
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There are winners (farm workers and food consumers) and losers (farmers):

The analysis tries to model the effects of cheaper imported food, reduced subsidies and more expensive labour.
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Up to the Government where the balance is struck.
 
Aber said:
There are winners (farm workers and food consumers) and losers (farmers):
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So many farmers voted Brexit because they were quite sure that, post-Brexit, their incomes would increase considerably. "Project Fear" warned that this may not be the case but that was pooh-poohed by the Leave campaign.
 
Imported food will be a thing of the past but everyone likes watery cabbage soup, and in a couple of generations people will have forgotten courgettes and oranges ever existed.
 
Here's a Brexiter's take: https://peterjnorth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/10/i-dont-like-this-brexit-but-i-will-live.html

Initially we will see food prices plummet but this won't last. Domestic agriculture won't be able to compete and we'll see a gradual decline of UK production. UK meats will be premium produce and no longer affordable to most.

Once food importers have crushed all UK competition they will gradually raise their prices, simply because they can.
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But on the plus side;
I expect to see a cultural revolution where young people actually start doing surprising and reckless things again rather than becoming tedious hipsters drinking energy drinks in pop-up cereal bar book shops or whatever it is they do these days.
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So that's all right then. Why do so many of these people seem to despise those younger than them?
 
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Hubert Cumberdale said:
It seems hard to imagine that they are actually just liars. They would have to know that they will be found out, and in spectacular fashion, in spring of 2019......

....so maybe they are just slightly unhinged?
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Maybe they figure that at that point they'll cash out and take the private sector appointments they've 'earned'?
 
The Don said:
So many farmers voted Brexit because they were quite sure that, post-Brexit, their incomes would increase considerably. "Project Fear" warned that this may not be the case but that was pooh-poohed by the Leave campaign.
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Watch out, if you go around pooh-poohing their pooh-pooh we might end up having to disband the regiment.
 
The farm income thing is just speculation by remain enthusiasts. Anyone can speculate.

Farm incomes may double after Brexit.

There you go.
 
ceptimus said:
The farm income thing is just speculation by remain enthusiasts. Anyone can speculate.

Farm incomes may double after Brexit.

There you go.
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Typical from the Leave campaign. Speculation from people with little or no relevant knowledge is equivalent to, or indeed trumps, detailed research using published models carried out by experts in the field. :rolleyes:
 
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