- Re #1. Agreed. Given H, the current existence of my self is unimaginably small.
The specific existence of any individual thing is unimaginably small, whether or not it has a sense of self. There's a phone here next to me, and (setting aside the fact that, as with anything that exists, the likelihood of it existing is literally 100%) the odds of it existing are super duper small. So many things had to happen for this specific phone to exist with the specific apps and scratches and everything on it! Does that mean my phone is immortal?
The fact that under H there is nothing special about the self does not mean that my argument applies equally to things without such an emergent property.
It means that having or not having self awareness doesn't make a thing more or less likely to exist (under H). Agreed?
Since that is the case, and since the rest of your argument is "it's really unlikely that X exists!" your argument applies equally to rocks.
We of this thread have accepted that when all of the potential results of the situation are equally likely (or unlikely), for a particular event to be appropriate as E in the Bayes formula, it needs to be "set apart" from most other potential results in a way that is relevant to H.
Well, YOU have decided that. I haven't seen anyone else agree with the way you do that yet.
Anyway, my claim is that this emergent property of self is what sets me apart. Rocks don't have such an emergent property.
Your entire argument is "X is super unlikely". Under materialism, a sense of self is nothing special and does not make something more or less likely in any significant way. So the "X" above would apply equally to you, or a rock, or a gopher.
Furthermore, 'sense of self' is a spectrum. When you're sleeping you don't really have one. Do you stop being immortal? What about lizards? They have a sort of sense of self, but I don't think anyone would say it's the same as the one a human has. Elephants, on the other hand, are extremely similar to humans when it comes to a sense of self. So some animals have it, some don't. But it's not a hard line. It's a gradual thing, with lots of variations. You're trying to say that this one random property is somehow SUPER important, but you can't justify why. You haven't given any reason that this one property would change everything.
I literally begged you to give me nine yes/no answers. This should be really fast and easy for you, and you skipped it. I'll ask again.
Assuming a physically perfect copy could be made, is there a difference between two completely identical:
1. Jabbas?
2. Other, non-Jabba people?
3. Dead bodies?
4. Plants?
5. Dogs?
6. Bacteria?
7. Rocks?
8. Snowglobes?
9. Snowglobes where one of them was a gift from a loved one and one wasn't, but in all physical ways they are identical?