Matt Rouge on Why Skeptics will never accept the existence of psi

[caveman1917]

No you can't if you don't know what the claim is

Yes I can, I just did. The claim can be either true or false, partitioning the universe into two sets, call them claim-true and claim-false. Maximum entropy distribution is 50/50. Doesn't need to "mean" anything (yet).

you can't even know how many claims are even being made if there is no understanding of the words behind the claim.

It is the claim which can be either true or false, those were the assumptions, remember?

 

[MuDPhuD]

And? Clearly these soldiers don't believe it.

And?
The religious believe they talk to GOD, and some people who have survived cardiac arrest believe they have seen the afterlife. When valid alternate rational explanations exist there is no need to pursue unevidenced fantasy explanations.
The Defense department calls their program,
(From the article)
" Under the Perceptual Training Systems and Tools banner, ... In official Defense Department literature sensemaking is defined as “a motivated continuous effort to understand connections (which can be among people, places, and events) in order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively.”"
The defense department apparently does NOT call it "precognition", ESP, or psi. The author of that article, on the other hand, does call it those things. I wonder why? Could it be she has written a 550 page book about it which has come to market in March 2017?("Jacobsen is a journalist and the author of Phenomena, from which this was adapted")
This "article" is essentially an advertisement, a teaser if you will, for her book. Have you read it?

When "information about things they could not know about is provided to them, which would make it extrasensory perception", be sure to let me know.

It's irrational and a good idea? It is irrational to train soldiers to use their "precognitive skills" merely because a couple of them think they have extrasensory perception, right?
Again, and?

Your straw man is becoming overstuffed.

In the interest of open mindedness I have purchased the woman's book (Kindle version). Perhaps the long version will be more forthcoming with the "information about things they could not know about" being provided through extrasensory means.
It will take me many weeks to plow through 550 pages but I'll let you know what I find.

 

[caveman1917]

And?

And in all cases Darat needs a better argument. After reading a couple of reports of soldiers claiming to have magical abilities, it is no less rational to conclude that you have to train magical abilities than it is that you have to train abilities which are, like, totally unknown and stuff as well as do, like, the exact same thing as the magical abilities are purported to do, but which are not called magical abilities.

And that's even assuming you are correct, rather than that they just have another round of psi stuff but are too embarrassed to actually call it that. If this really was an epiphany about letting soldiers go with their gut instincts, then you'd expect them to have gotten the epiphany from reports which went like "I had a lucky hunch and went with it" rather than the "I have magical powers" ones. And then of course there's the history of previous rounds of psi stuff at this particular institution.

The Defense department calls their program,
(From the article)
" Under the Perceptual Training Systems and Tools banner, ... In official Defense Department literature sensemaking is defined as “a motivated continuous effort to understand connections (which can be among people, places, and events) in order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively.”"
The defense department apparently does NOT call it "precognition", ESP, or psi.

Yes because calling something differently actually makes it different.

The author of that article, on the other hand, does call it those things. I wonder why? Could it be she has written a 550 page book about it which has come to market in March 2017?("Jacobsen is a journalist and the author of Phenomena, from which this was adapted")
This "article" is essentially an advertisement, a teaser if you will, for her book. Have you read it?

No, not really interested either.

Your straw man is becoming overstuffed.

How is it a straw man?

In the interest of open mindedness I have purchased the woman's book (Kindle version).

Why? What are you expecting to find there?

 

[caveman1917]

Some humans can perform acts which look like psi, they're called magicians.

The definition of paranormal abilities as abilities which are incompatible with the laws of physics does not presume that all those laws are already known.

Suppose someone comes up to you, claims to be able to make entropy spontaneously decrease, and actually backs it up by chemical mixtures spontaneously decreasing in entropy. You check everything and it all checks out, entropy going down.

Would you consider this to show a paranormal ability? I think most would, but by your definition it wouldn't because you can't exclude superior knowledge of physics.

 

[Donn]

Suppose someone comes up to you, claims to be able to make entropy spontaneously decrease, and actually backs it up by chemical mixtures spontaneously decreasing in entropy. You check everything and it all checks out, entropy going down.

Would you consider this to show a paranormal ability?

The second something like that happens, reproducibly, physics will subsume it.

It may be seen as paranormal by those lacking the technical education in the field, but science will be happy to welcome it.

 

[Darat]

Yes I can, I just did. The claim can be either true or false, partitioning the universe into two sets, call them claim-true and claim-false. Maximum entropy distribution is 50/50. Doesn't need to "mean" anything (yet).



It is the claim which can be either true or false, those were the assumptions, remember?

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”​

 

[Darat]

And in all cases Darat needs a better argument. After reading a couple of reports of soldiers claiming to have magical abilities, it is no less rational to conclude that you have to train magical abilities than it is that you have to train abilities which are, like, totally unknown and stuff as well as do, like, the exact same thing as the magical abilities are purported to do, but which are not called magical abilities. ...snip...

Or as I mentioned the military try to "train" for such abilities and the ones that are yet again found to not exist the military won't move forward with but will move forward with those that consistently work enough.. just like they have always done. Which is why in the thousands of years of recorded history the military has never developed "magic"" powers.

You do realise you are providing more evidence for my conjecture (not argument by the way). Please do carry on - saves me effort!

 

[Darat]

Suppose someone comes up to you, claims to be able to make entropy spontaneously decrease, and actually backs it up by chemical mixtures spontaneously decreasing in entropy. You check everything and it all checks out, entropy going down.

Would you consider this to show a paranormal ability? I think most would, but by your definition it wouldn't because you can't exclude superior knowledge of physics.

There are probably as many fictions about the supernatural as there are people on this earth (note that is poetic use of language, not literal).

Show it happens, then one can debate its nature.

 

[caveman1917]

“When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, “it means just what I choose it to mean—neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”​

I'll take that as a retraction.

Or as I mentioned the military try to "train" for such abilities and the ones that are yet again found to not exist the military won't move forward with but will move forward with those that consistently work enough.. just like they have always done. Which is why in the thousands of years of recorded history the military has never developed "magic"" powers.

I didn't claim they developed magic powers, I claimed they are sufficiently stupid/overfunded/desperate/whatever so that what they do or do not do has no bearing on whether the thing actually exists.

But hey, I'm sure that in that wild goose chase for patterns in the randomness it will turn out that there are many patterns to be found indeed, especially when the search is influenced by the guys who do claim to have magical powers.

You do realise you are providing more evidence for my conjecture (not argument by the way). Please do carry on - saves me effort!

Your conjecture that if psi was real then the military would be using it? Ok fine, support your conjecture.

There are probably as many fictions about the supernatural as there are people on this earth (note that is poetic use of language, not literal).

Show it happens, then one can debate its nature.

No, one can do that before that just fine.

 

[caveman1917]

The second something like that happens, reproducibly, physics will subsume it.

It will only subsume it the second it figures it out, which might be a lot later than when it first happens. It may very well never figure it out.

It may be seen as paranormal by those lacking the technical education in the field, but science will be happy to welcome it.

Yes indeed.

 

[Donn]

It will only subsume it the second it figures it out, which might be a lot later than when it first happens.

Nope. Hypotheses would immediately begin to form and be tested against the facts of the phenomenon. That's science.

Until it's a fact, it's a fiction.

 

[caveman1917]

Nope. Hypotheses would immediately begin to form and be tested against the facts of the phenomenon. That's science.

Yes because the, for example, 50 years it took to solve Mercury's precession was actually just a second.

 

[Fudbucker]

Nope. Hypotheses would immediately begin to form and be tested against the facts of the phenomenon. That's science.

Until it's a fact, it's a fiction.

Is dark matter a fiction?

 

[Darat]

Is dark matter a fiction?

Depends on what you mean by the term. I've just finished reading a science fiction book that has "dark matter" in it - that was certainly a fiction.

 

[Nay_Sayer]

Nope. Hypotheses would immediately begin to form and be tested against the facts of the phenomenon. That's science.

Until it's a fact, it's a fiction.

This

 

[sadhatter]

Those are clearly claims of extrasensory perception.

No they are not.

Sometimes you gain a really good ability to judge situations simply via practise. When I throw a knife I know before it hits the board if it is going to be a bad hit or not. Could I tell you exactly how I know or am processing that fast? Not explicitly, but there is nothing psychic about it. I've thrown knifes thousands of times, seen thousands of hits, and likely I have just learned to feel how the throw leaves my hand and analyse the angle it leaves at to determine if I should throw another or move out of the way of a possible rebound.

Am I psychic? No. I'm not even in that good of shape (by that I mean my reaction time in general is not this quick. ) , but via experience I have a "spidey sense" in regards to knife throwing.

 

[caveman1917]

No they are not.

"I have an extra sense through which I perceive things" is not a claim of extrasensory perception... Do you have an example of something which would be a claim of extrasensory perception?

 

[sadhatter]

And? Clearly these soldiers don't believe it.



It's irrational and a good idea? It is irrational to train soldiers to use their "precognitive skills" merely because a couple of them think they have extrasensory perception, right?



Again, and?

To clear this up for you.

In general in combat it is better to follow through with a plan than attempt to abort it. For example if I believe there are people in a building it is better to decide to either wait, or to go in. If I decide to go in them change my mind, (or vice versa) it is going to lead, in general to a less tactically beneficial outcome.

This is simply implementing that line of thinking. If I feel I need to do x better to do it and waste energy than to not do it and get killed. Or worse yet attempt to stop doing it and get killed.

 

[caveman1917]

This

50 years, a second, they're just easy to confuse timescales...

 

[caveman1917]

To clear this up for you.

In general in combat it is better to follow through with a plan than attempt to abort it. For example if I believe there are people in a building it is better to decide to either wait, or to go in. If I decide to go in them change my mind, (or vice versa) it is going to lead, in general to a less tactically beneficial outcome.

This is simply implementing that line of thinking. If I feel I need to do x better to do it and waste energy than to not do it and get killed. Or worse yet attempt to stop doing it and get killed.

And you've recently learned this from reading reports of soldiers claiming to have magical powers? There really is wisdom in magic, who'd have thought.