How long before Trump is gone?

[Upchurch]

That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency.

As an aside, Trump lost any claim to being pro-business when he did not step in on the FCC vote to walk back network neutrality.

 

[The Don]

As an aside, Trump lost any claim to being pro-business when he did not step in on the FCC vote to walk back network neutrality.

It depends on which crowd he's playing to. While owners of large businesses may understand this, small business owners and members of the public may continue to think he is pro-business, not least because of the yuge corporate tax rate cuts he is promising.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

A while back I offered to bet $20 that, one way or another, Trump would not be president one year post-inauguration.

No one took me up on it.

But now, who knows? Never have so many pundits been so wrong about so many things so many times!

 

[elgarak]

I really can't place a vote. IMV, It's clear as can be that Trump is guilty of 2 serious crimes at a minimum. One being obstruction of justice and the second is violating the emoluments clause of the US Constitution. Both of which are reasons for Impeachment. The third reason to Impeach Trump isn't a crime but frankly is the best reason for Impeachment. The man is batcrap crazy.

But guessing what Congress will do is impossible.

You forgot high treason by telling the Russians code-word level intelligence (and very likely other intelligence as well).

I don't think THAT has ever happened before. We're in uncharted waters.

 

[The Don]

You forgot high treason by telling the Russians code-word level intelligence (and very likely other intelligence as well).

As I understand it, it cannot be treason because as the President he has full control over what is classified and what it not, and to be high treason the US would have to be at war with that country (less sure about that second bit).

I don't think THAT has ever happened before. We're in uncharted waters.

What Trump has done may be ill-advised and "wrong" but AFAIK it's not illegal.

 

[McHrozni]

I really can't place a vote. IMV, It's clear as can be that Trump is guilty of 2 serious crimes at a minimum. One being obstruction of justice and the second is violating the emoluments clause of the US Constitution. Both of which are reasons for Impeachment. The third reason to Impeach Trump isn't a crime but frankly is the best reason for Impeachment. The man is batcrap crazy.

But guessing what Congress will do is impossible.

Hm. How did he violate the emoluments clause?

McHrozni

 

[seayakin]

My bet is that he will not run for a 2nd term and therefore is out in 2020. I think he will come up with some BS about how he had the biggest best presidency and was able to accomplish everything like no other leader in history. He will declare the country is now great again and that it is time for him do his great and wonderful business things. In reality, he will be tired from the job requirements as well as the criticism and continued unpopularity.

Here are my odds about two other possibility for getting out earlier:

5% chance he will be resign/forced out or impeached.
25% he will have a serious health issue that will require Pence to take over

I think he will lose support from the rust belt supporters when there condition has not changed. Everything I have seen these are people who only supported him hoping to bring a change and are not a part of the core supporters who will never leave Trump.

 

[Upchurch]

It depends on which crowd he's playing to. While owners of large businesses may understand this, small business owners and members of the public may continue to think he is pro-business, not least because of the yuge corporate tax rate cuts he is promising.

Not owners of large businesses. Owners of a handful of ISPs.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

I think he will lose support from the rust belt supporters when there condition has not changed. Everything I have seen these are people who only supported him hoping to bring a change and are not a part of the core supporters who will never leave Trump.

Nope. They'll retain them by spinning it with "at least he tried," nevermind that he didn't.

 

[NoahFence]

As I understand it, it cannot be treason because as the President he has full control over what is classified and what it not, and to be high treason the US would have to be at war with that country (less sure about that second bit).



What Trump has done may be ill-advised and "wrong" but AFAIK it's not illegal.

Trump's entire administrations mission statement:

"AFAIK it's not illegal"

 

[Resume]

Too long.

 

[Vixen]

He's toast. He has too many enemies in the establishment.

The entire FBI and intelligence community loathes him. The Republicans are embarrassed by him.

 

[Upchurch]

I'd vote for "how", but there is no telling on the "when".

 

[NoahFence]

It's only been 130 days. All we are saying, is give Trump a chance.

Not that they could have. Well, that's not true. They could have impeached Bush with all the Democrats voting for Impeachment. Meaning like a grand jury the house could issue charges for a trial. But thats as far as it goes. Like Bill Clinton, the trial phase would be a dead end since it requires a 2/3rds majority to convict and remove the President. They never had 67 votes in the Senate.

I'm willing to bet the majority of males in congress were guilty of the same things that Clinton did, so it was difficult for them to swallow getting rid of him.


Trump on the other hand has been doing some very shady and extremely illegal (borderline traitorous) things.

 

[dudalb]

Most likely to still be president at the beginning of 2025. This is not a hard pick. It's all on the economy, and fortunately for him, Trump inherited a very slow-growth economy with extremely low interest rates. That's a pretty good situation for a pro-business, pro-growth presidency. The corporate tax cut will lead to increased economic activity; that's finance 101.

Ah, the good old Trickle Down theory. that has worked so well in the past for the average Americans.
You also ignore non economic issues, which could Bring Trump down.