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Will Trump be re-elected?

Will trump be re-elected?

  • Yes

    Votes: 28 14.5%

  • No

    Votes: 80 41.5%

  • Don't know, but I hope not

    Votes: 82 42.5%

  • Don't know, but I hope he does

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • Total voters
    193
To get a clear idea we would need to know the following:

1) What is the economy like in the key rust-belt states that barely swung his way?
2) Who are the Democrats running?
3) Have tens of millions been purged from healthcare?
4) Are there any new wars?
5) How fatigued are people by the scandals?
 
The Don said:
Depending on how voter ID and roll purging goes, this could be quite sufficient.
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I'd say this is the major variable. USAians need to make damn sure this doesn't happen, or that there are work-arounds. The GOP plays dirty. Being nice won't help the Democrats win.
 
halleyscomet said:
Trump's currently trying to antagonize Iran into war. Once we have a fresh shooting war Trump's win in 2020 is pretty much in the bag. He'll ramp up the fear and terror to new heights.
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Remember though, the Iraq invasion is still fresh in many people's minds, and currently the majority of people view it as a mistake. While some may think Trump leading the country to war makes him more popular, it probably won't be as big a bump as other wars.

If Trump presides over a terrorist attack on US soil he's going to be VERY difficult to defeat in 2020.
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Perhaps. On the other hand, it may actually decrease his popularity. After all, some may think "He's supposed to protect us but didn't".

He's not going to be impeached. By the time the mid-term elections come around, he'll have so much Fear, Uncertainly and Doubt in play the Democrats will probably lose seats, not gain them.
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I figure what will cause the Democrats to loose seats is just pure luck... (There are more democratic seats up for reelection in the midterms than republicans; this makes them more vulnerable.)
 
Given the fact that Trump won despite so many saying he had no chance, making predictions can be a bit tricky.

But, if I had to, I'd say he has no chance for re-election (assuming he runs) for a number of reasons:

- Trump's victory was extremely slim... he lost the popular vote, and only won the electoral college because he won a small number of states by a very tiny margin. It would not have taken much to tilt things in the Democrats favor last time. So, for Trump to win again, he'd have to ensure that he holds on to every vote he had last time, and/or attempt to reach out to moderates

- Trump has shown little or no interest in increasing his voter base. Little mention of "If you didn't vote for me hopefully I'll still make things better" statements in his early speeches. His rallies have been aimed at his current supporters. And his constant attacks on the media, etc. are unlikely to get him new votes. The lack of any sort of prolonged "honeymoon" period suggests that.

- Demographic shifts will continue to favor the democrats (i.e. increasing proportion of minorities, who tend to vote democrat.) Granted, its only 4 years, so demographics won't change THAT much, but as I said, Trump's victory was very slim so even a slight change may make a difference

- The media may be smarter when it comes to dealing with Trump, being less likely to give him a free pass on many of his lies as they did early in is 2016 campaign.

- Non-Trump protest Voters may be smarter now. Many sat out the election, or voted for Stein or did a write-in of Sanders in protest. You have to figure at least a few of these people will look at the 2016 election, realize that the lesser of 2 evils actually is less evil, and actually vote for the Democratic candidate. (Some will continue to be idiots to the end, but as I said, you don't need many votes to erase Trump's margin of victory.)

- A few of Trump's voters may wise up. After all, many of Trump's supporters voted for him based on some pretty vague promises that Trump has no way or intention to fulfill (bringing coal mining/manufacturing jobs back, drain the swamp). Other promises sounded good, but may make things worse for the country (build a wall, which will cost $billions, protectionist trade policies, etc.) Not to mention Trump's handing of health care will probably end up killing off many of his own supporters. Literally. (I remember reading that on average the past Republican health care bill would have affected Trump supporters more negatively than non-trump supporters.) Yes, he will continue to get support from of the more brain-damaged in the population, but he only needs to lose a few votes to be defeated.
 
The Don said:
- Russia might not try to/be able to meddle in the election - at least not to the same extent. Hell, they might not even favor Trump a second time around.
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Russia doesn't want a stable and coherent U.S.. I cannot imagine a Democratic Party candidate who would make the U.S. less stable and less coherent than Trump.
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I think the main point the other poster was making was that Russia may not be ABLE to meddle in the election. The media is more aware of Russian hacking issues, and voters are 'bothered' by it. Hopefully that will mean russia won't have the same ability to convince voters to vote for a racist Orangutan.

As for Russia favoring Trump, Putin wants what's best for Putin. In the last election that was "destabilize the U.S., and punish Hillary". If Hillary isn't running, that will eliminate at least some of the personal motive.

Journalists will do whatever drives the most traffic to their paper/website/channel. If covering Trump's every pronouncement does that then that's what they'll do. Trump will IMO be box office in 2020, possibly even more than he was in 2016.
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True, journalists are interested in ratings/sales/etc. and will cover Trump extensively in 2020 because of it.

But, they may be more proactive in pointing out his flaws. Remember, one of the main criticisms of the media is that they allowed Trump to basically spout nonsense for months before they started engaging in more fact checking.

Depending on how voter ID and roll purging goes, this could be quite sufficient.
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We've already seen Voter ID / purging happen in the past election. I'm sure it hurt the democrats, but Hillary still won the popular vote. In order for things to be worse for the Democrats, there would have to be NEW voter ID laws in key swing states (and those states would have to be run by republicans.)
 
MrFliop said:
New polling came out this week!

Trump (43%) vs Warren (48%)

Trump (40%) vs Biden (54%)

Trump (42%) vs Booker (45%)

Trump (41%) vs Franken (46%)

Trump (41%) vs Sanders (52%)

Trump (40%) vs Oprah (47%)

Trump (41%) vs Mark Cuban (40%)

Trump (35%) vs Generic Democrat (43%)

http://http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2017/PPP_Release_National_33017.pdf
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There are some crazy results in there. One thing it does show is how far the divide between the US right and the Center-Left is, and how far out of touch with both reality and the rest of Moderate and Liberal America those on the far right really are.
 
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halleyscomet said:
That's a good point. He is still, for all intents and purposes, running as if he is still just a candidate.
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Rally's are fun and you don't have to deal the the press like when you sign executive orders. Those are unfun things for losers. So sad they would use that as a chance to attack him with lies!
 
Argumemnon said:
Anything's possible, but I seriously doubt he'll get reelected.
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Because he won't be a candidate (because he's been removed as president or he chooses not to stand) or because he will run and be defeated by the Democratic Party candidate ?

My own opinion is that if he runs in 2020 he wins regardless of how ineffectual his presidency has been because he'll have near 100% support from GOP supporters (either because they think he's a good candidate or blind party loyalty) and at least some "independents" will be swung by the media.

I don't see him voluntarily standing down as President or not running again so IMO the only reason he wouldn't run is because he cannot - either because he is disqualified or because he is unable to run through ill health (or worse).
 
The Don said:
Because he won't be a candidate (because he's been removed as president or he chooses not to stand) or because he will run and be defeated by the Democratic Party candidate ?

My own opinion is that if he runs in 2020 he wins regardless of how ineffectual his presidency has been because he'll have near 100% support from GOP supporters (either because they think he's a good candidate or blind party loyalty) and at least some "independents" will be swung by the media.

I don't see him voluntarily standing down as President or not running again so IMO the only reason he wouldn't run is because he cannot - either because he is disqualified or because he is unable to run through ill health (or worse).
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The GOP could also nominate someone else, leaving him with only the option of running as independent.

Not all that likely, I know.

McHrozni
 
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