Indyref 2: This time it's personal.

[Worm]

Oh don't worry when someone pointed that out to them they suggested building TWO. One on the border and one on the historical site.

Seems like an awful lot of effort to express unhappiness with one person but I guess that is OK and just proves that the SNP and independence campaigners are anti-English, you see.

They're going to build a wall down the middle of the River Tweed? That will be a sight to see

 

[Rolfe]

I had assumed that any Welsh or Northern Irish person wouldn't have to be told they are welcome.

If you want to fight the battle for England not being the UK then I am with you. The place to start would appear to be with those presumably English commentators who seem to think it is.

As you only joined the forum in 2015 you might not be aware of the extent of the pointless sniping and derailing that occurred during 2013 and 2014 when people (one poster in particular) called out every and all use of the words "England" and "English" as being tantamount to racial discrimination against people from Wales and Northern Ireland. It was one of the reasons I left the discussion then and one of the reasons I'm stepping back now. It's a pointless distraction but we can't get past it.

The fact is that England is in the driving seat in the union by virtue of its population size. What England votes for, England gets, regardless of what any or all the other three constituent parts vote for. So talking about England is not unreasonable in this context, but it will be called out every time it's done.

It's also no use saying, well, say "British" then. Scots are British too, so that doesn't convey the sense of what we're talking about. To say, as a Scot, that British people are welcome in Scotland, just seems senseless. For a while I was using "England+" as a way to get past this, but I'm not sure even that did the trick.

It's also the case that we're specifically being called out for anti-English racism. (That's AGG, who lives in England, and Architect and myself who used to live there - I lived in the south-east of England for 25 years, and indeed searching for the first three years of my posts on the forum will show me posting from Sussex.) I don't think it's unreasonable in this context to make specifically welcoming gestures to English people, without being called out for anti-Welsh or NI racism. And then when we address that, we're anti-Falkland Islanders. Gibraltarians next, I guess?

Meh, back to lurking.

 

[Rolfe]

I saw the line touted today that the people who voted Remain only did so as a strategic vote to get an excuse to hold another Indyref and actually the country wants out of the EU as much as everywhere else. You couldn't make this stuff up!

Oh but they did!

 

[Strawberry]

I saw the line touted today that the people who voted Remain only did so as a strategic vote to get an excuse to hold another Indyref and actually the country wants out of the EU as much as everywhere else. You couldn't make this stuff up!

That's what I did. Not that I want to leave the EU particularly, I don't really care either way, I just want a united Ireland. I'd be in the minority though, so it would be misleading to say that the Scottish remain vote means nothing.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

That's what I did. Not that I want to leave the EU particularly, I don't really care either way, I just want a united Ireland. I'd be in the minority though, so it would be misleading to say that the Scottish remain vote means nothing.

The only strategic voting talk I saw prior the EU referendum was in fact the exact opposite of this. Suggesting that independence supporters should vote to leave to push the UK into a Brexit as a justification for independence.

I don't think it was ever taken seriously or got any kind of traction as a movement so I doubt it is significant in the final result.

What I think could be fairly said is that a lot of people who voted to remain don't see it as the be all and end all to the extent that they would vote for independence purely to stay in the EU. I think all we can really say is that anti-EU sentiment in Scotland is significantly lower than it appears in England and Wales.

 

[Strawberry]

The only strategic voting talk I saw prior the EU referendum was in fact the exact opposite of this. Suggesting that independence supporters should vote to leave to push the UK into a Brexit as a justification for independence.

I don't think it was ever taken seriously or got any kind of traction as a movement so I doubt it is significant in the final result.

What I think could be fairly said is that a lot of people who voted to remain don't see it as the be all and end all to the extent that they would vote for independence purely to stay in the EU. I think all we can really say is that anti-EU sentiment in Scotland is significantly lower than it appears in England and Wales.

Yes but Brexit only works as an argument for independence because Scotland voted one way and England the other. The SNP wouldn't have a leg to stand on if Scotland had voted by a majority to leave the EU. That's why I think there may be an element of strategic pro-indy votes among the Scottish remainers, but I'm sure they're a minority.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Yes but Brexit only works as an argument for independence because Scotland voted one way and England the other. The SNP wouldn't have a leg to stand on if Scotland had voted by a majority to leave the EU. That's why I think there may be an element of strategic pro-indy votes among the Scottish remainers, but I'm sure they're a minority.

I agree it doesn't make sense, that's why I don't think it got any traction. But all I am saying is that this was the tactical voting that was suggested before the event. Nobody ever suggested voting Remain even though you wanted to leave the EU.

http://www.independent.co.uk/uk-politics/snp-activists-back-brexit-in-tactical-vote-for-independence

The only other tactical suggestion I can see is that No voters might have voted Remain to scupper further Independence momentum.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/4pmhob/remain_a_tactical_vote/

Both of those seem to be contrary to the claim being made. And neither I think is a serious movement.

 

[Rolfe]

Yes but Brexit only works as an argument for independence because Scotland voted one way and England the other. The SNP wouldn't have a leg to stand on if Scotland had voted by a majority to leave the EU. That's why I think there may be an element of strategic pro-indy votes among the Scottish remainers, but I'm sure they're a minority.

You'll find 24-carat idiots doing all sorts of stupid things, but as you say, not many. Some people did muse about voting Leave in the hope of tipping the overall vote to Leave while expressing confidence that Scotland would muster a Remain vote without their help, but they were derided as Russian roulette-players and that criticism appeared to be accepted.

I never heard anyone in Scotland say they were actually anti-EU but would vote Remain in the hope of getting a referendum out of it, but anything's possible. The fact that switching both ways is being said to favour the Scotland Remain/UK Leave outcome demonstrates how specious the argument is.

I only know of one declared tactical vote. A Scot living in England who wasn't certain whether or not remaining in the EU was a good idea voted Leave specifically to boost the English Leave tally with an eye to that outcome.

I don't know anyone in Scotland who didn't vote according to their genuine beliefs about EU membership.

 

[Strawberry]

I was really talking about people who voted remain for tactical reasons, not leave voters. Some of us, me included, anticipated that the English would be the most anti-EU section of the UK and voted the opposite way in the hope that it would drive a wedge between England and the rest of the UK.

Mind you, even I didn't vote remain while wanting to leave the EU, I'm quite happy to stay in the EU, I was just viewing Ireland as a higher priority.

 

[Rolfe]

I seriously do not think anyone in Scotland did that. Or, OK there are oddities everywhere, but nobody beyond a handful. The talk was the other way, of voting Leave to push the overall vote to Leave, while hoping Scotland would vote Remain anyway.

Cue a flood of people pointing out that we needed a strong Remain vote in Scotland and that a marginal one wouldn't cut it so don't be so stupid. That counter-argument seemed to work. But that's the way the conversation was going. Never encountered anyone in Scotland who was pro-Leave voting Remain tactically!

 

[Architect]

It's also the case that we're specifically being called out for anti-English racism. (That's AGG, who lives in England, and Architect and myself who used to live there.....

Did some of my finest work in the northwest of England, greatly enjoyed myself there, worked with a fantastic team.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

At the end of the day I don't think the two things are as linked as the discussion tends to suggest. I think the issue is more that the EU referendum is symptomatic of a larger problem - that Scotland and particularly England (though quite possibly Wales and N Ireland as well) are politically different and there is no way for those differences to be resolved equitably within the UK setup.

I don't think it can be assumed that more than maybe 10% of Remain voters feel so strongly about Remain that they would break up the UK to stay in the EU. But added to all the other arguments it may be enough to sway a significant number.

And there will also be a number that go the other way... that want to leave the EU and would prefer to be part of the UK out of the EU than independent inside it.

The only number that counts is the % who will vote for independence and while polls put it at roughtly 50/50 right now I would personally say that it would need to be tracking closer to 60/40 before I would say there is a strong chance that independence would occur. On the day when it comes to the crunch I'm sure there will be a percentage who get cold feet and vote to stay in the UK even though they favour independence in theory.

The thing is it so finely balanced and there are so many things that could affect the result in the meantime. Trump does something stupid in the States... independence gains 2 points. Wilders does something stupid in Netherlands... independence loses 2 points.

I think independence at this point does need someone to come out and back it to swing it. Hopefully Nicola is working on something to that end. Probably difficult to achieve but if we could get a major financial institution or manufacturing plant openly saying they would seriously consider relocating to Scotland in the event of independence I think that could tip it.

 

[ceptimus]

One thing that would help tip the vote in favour of independence would be some kind of guarantee from the EU that Scotland would be eligible to join ( or 'remain' ). What's the likelihood of getting such a guarantee?

 

[dudalb]

Yes, breaking away from a larger democratic structure so that power flows more to a single ethnicity is so unenlightened.... what was that thing called Brexit? At least Scotland can argue they wish to remain part of the world, but you seem to be claiming a right to drag neighbors down to the bottom of dark pits, because.... yes, here it is, way down below any semblance of reason: "England Prevail!" Oh, my, and no fig leaf to cover the contradiction. Oops!

The EU and the UK government are two different animals. Bad comparasion.

 

[dudalb]

IMHO the UK will either go to more of a federal system or collapse.
Revenge of the "Celtic Fringe".

 

[Craig B]

IMHO the UK will either go to more of a federal system or collapse.
Revenge of the "Celtic Fringe".

If it adopts a federal system it will still collapse, as its foundational ideology will be exploded.

A century ago, in the case of Ireland, the U.K. preferred partition and violence over any federal solution. Have lessons been learned? One might hope so, but Brexit suggests that the "ascendancy" is still uneasy in federal relationships.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I don't see how a federal system solves the issues to be honest. A medium term sticking plaster maybe but not a permanent solution

 

[dudalb]

I don't see how a federal system solves the issues to be honest. A medium term sticking plaster maybe but not a permanent solution

A medium term sticking plaster might give you time to figure out a permanent solution.
Anyway, you have the whole issue that that the problems of Scotland,Wales,and NI might be different then that of England, and that there is no "Solution" that is right for all four "kingdoms". Better to allow them to develop their own solutions.
The idea of a powerful central government, with lower poltical units existing only as a administrative convenience for the central government ,seems to be the standard for many countries in Europe, and the idea of a system where local government have power and rights NOT dependent on the good will of a central government is a hard one to grasp for many in Europe.

 

[Rolfe]

I think independence at this point does need someone to come out and back it to swing it. Hopefully Nicola is working on something to that end. Probably difficult to achieve but if we could get a major financial institution or manufacturing plant openly saying they would seriously consider relocating to Scotland in the event of independence I think that could tip it.

A lot of these institutions are institutionally unionist as well as pragmatically though. Indeed when you consider the opportunities independence would have presented in 2014 it's difficult to sustain the idea that it's even pragmatic. They may be hoping to capitalise on some sort of post-Brexit special deal for the City of London, which could make them reluctant to come out in favour of independence.

But the fact is that Edinburgh is going to be an extremely attractive prospect as the capital of an independent EU member state, so someone might figure it's worth it.

One thing that would help tip the vote in favour of independence would be some kind of guarantee from the EU that Scotland would be eligible to join ( or 'remain' ). What's the likelihood of getting such a guarantee?

There are already some extremely positive noises coming out of various EU sources. Whether they will ever go as far as giving a definite guarantee I don't know, but it's likely this will be made as clear as it can be made short of an actual guarantee.

All bets will continue to be hedged until May triggers article 50 though.

 

[Rolfe]

A medium term sticking plaster might give you time to figure out a permanent solution.
Anyway, you have the whole issue that that the problems of Scotland,Wales,and NI might be different then that of England, and that there is no "Solution" that is right for all four "kingdoms". Better to allow them to develop their own solutions.
The idea of a powerful central government, with lower poltical units existing only as a administrative convenience for the central government ,seems to be the standard for many countries in Europe, and the idea of a system where local government have power and rights NOT dependent on the good will of a central government is a hard one to grasp for many in Europe.

The federal boat sailed some time ago. It's also practically unachievable because it requires England voluntarily giving up effective overlordship over the other three nations. I don't see it ever happening. I think we have to leave by our own choice and then negotiate a future mutual modus vivendi from a position of strength.

In fact Germany is a good example of a federal system in Europe that works, and Belgium is so "devolved" it's almost not a country. So it does exist within Europe. It's anathema to the mindset of the English ruling classes though.

We're seeing the bizarre phenomenon of English "Leave" leaders lauding the virtues of taking back control and not being in any sense governed by a larger neighbour while still lecturing "Yes" supporters about the benefits of having your entire budget appropriated by a larger neighbour who can abolish your parliament on a whim and is handing you back less and less pocket money every year.

It's not difficult to work out that they don't like the EU because England or the UK (often these terms mean the same thing to these people) is not pre-eminent king pin in the EU, but they do like the UK because they want to hold on to Scotland as some sort of powerless vassal state.