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Will Trump be re-elected?

Will trump be re-elected?

  • Yes

    Votes: 28 14.5%

  • No

    Votes: 80 41.5%

  • Don't know, but I hope not

    Votes: 82 42.5%

  • Don't know, but I hope he does

    Votes: 3 1.6%
  • Total voters
    193
Not sure. Depends on how long it takes Wall Street/hedge funds/bankers and insurance companies to tank the economy with all the deregulation. They been chomping at the bit to get back to screwing the general public like the good ole days.

If they push it, the economy could be in a Yuge Recession by 2020.
 
seayakin said:
To me, Trump's reelection depends on a few things.

  • How do those working class voters, especially in the rust belt, feel about there economic situation in 2019 (since perception is everything in politics, these people need to feel their situation is improving whether it actually is or not would be a discussion)
  • Do the Democrats nominate someone with as many negatives as Hillary

I bring up the first bullet because it seems that if Hillary and the Democrats were able to have any appeal to these voters, Hillary would be in the White House. I also think that these working class voters were not loving Trump and their support is thin. Trump cannot alienate any of his voters in the next 4 years or he loses (unless the Democrats nominate an abysmal candidate which cannot also be ruled out).
Click to expand...

And I think that Trump, so far, if proving to be totally incompetent will be a major factor.
 
Let's see how all our predictions of Trump have turned out

March 2011: Donald Trump has come out as a birther, he can now kiss away his chance of being president

April 2011: Donald Trump is the front-runner for the GOP, but he'll never run. This is all a publicity stunt

May 2011: See, told you he'd never run

4 years later....

May 2015: DT says every 4 years he will run for president, which will never happen. This is all just so he can sell his brand

June 2015: OK so Donald Trump is running for president, but he'll likely be out of the race by the end of the summer, he probably won't even be on the main debate stage

July 2015: OK so Donald Trump is the frontrunner but he'll quickly fade in a few months

Fall 2015: Ok so Donald Trump has been the frontrunner for several months and its likely he'll win some states, but don't worry once the primaries begin more candidates will drop out making it easier for another one of the candidates to beat him

November 2015: Ben Carson is the frontrunner, Trump is finished

December 2015: Ok, so Trump is frontrunner again(ahead by 50 points of his nearest opponent) but his recent muslim ban comments will be his downfall. I mean he can't just say these things and get away with it.

February 2016: Cruz and Rubio are the clear alternatives to Trump. He will easily be beaten.

March 2016: Ok, so Trump has won the most states and has the most delegates. But its ok, no candidate will get a majority of delegates leading to a brokered convention where Trump will lose.

May 2016: Ok, so Trump is the GOP nominee. But he will get crushed in the general election

October 2016: Welp, that recent tape is the final nail in the coffin for a Trump presidency

Early November 2016: Ok, so polls do say that its slightly possible that Trump might win. But not by a landslide, its impossible that he'll get over 275 electoral votes. But, even if he does win there's we shouldn't worry the republicans will lose control of congress.

November 8, 2016: Ok, so all the exit polls for swings states clearly show that hillary will win

November 9, 2016: OK, so Trump won by 306 EV and the GOP still controls congress, but its ok Trump won't really do the things he said he would in his campaign

February 2017: Donald Trump will not be re-elected in 2020
 
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MrFliop said:
Let's see how all our predictions of Trump have turned out

March 2011: Donald Trump has come out as a birther, he can now kiss away his chance of being president

April 2011: Donald Trump is the front-runner for the GOP, but he'll never run. This is all a publicity stunt

May 2011: See, told you he'd never run

4 years later....

May 2015: DT says every 4 years he will run for president, which will never happen. This is all just so he can sell his brand

June 2015: OK so Donald Trump is running for president, but he'll likely be out of the race by the end of the summer, he probably won't even be on the main debate stage

July 2015: OK so Donald Trump is the frontrunner but he'll quickly fade in a few months

Fall 2015: Ok so Donald Trump has been the frontrunner for several months and its likely he'll win some states, but don't worry once the primaries begin more candidates will drop out making it easier for another one of the candidates to beat him

November 2015: Ben Carson is the frontrunner, Trump is finished

December 2015: Ok, so Trump is frontrunner again(ahead by 50 points of his nearest opponent) but his recent muslim ban comments will be his downfall. I mean he can't just say these things and get away with it.

February 2016: Cruz and Rubio are the clear alternatives to Trump. He will easily be beaten.

March 2016: Ok, so Trump has won the most states and has the most delegates. But its ok, no candidate will get a majority of delegates leading to a brokered convention where Trump will lose.

May 2016: Ok, so Trump is the GOP nominee. But he will get crushed in the general election

October 2016: Welp, that recent tape is the final nail in the coffin for a Trump presidency

Early November 2016: Ok, so polls do say that its slightly possible that Trump might win. But not by a landslide, its impossible that he'll get over 275 electoral votes. But, even if he does win there's we shouldn't worry the republicans will lose control of congress.

November 8, 2016: Ok, so all the exit polls for swings states clearly show that hillary will win

November 9, 2016: OK, so Trump won by 306 EV and the GOP still controls congress, but its ok Trump won't really do the things he said he would in his campaign

February 2017: Donald Trump will not be re-elected in 2020
Click to expand...

According to the poll, the current prediction is "I don't know"
 
dudalb said:
You have totally lost faith in Democracy in the US, haven't you?
I just don't think the American people are as dumb or willing to give up their freedom as you think there are. Some desperate voters in the Rust Belt States made a bad decision;I don't think that is cause for basically indulging in despair porn.
And this verges on Conspriacy Theory thinking.
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"No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have researched the records for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby." -- H. L. Mencken.
 
Wayward son said:
"No one in this world, so far as I know—and I have researched the records for years, and employed agents to help me—has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby." -- H. L. Mencken.
Click to expand...

If Democracy does not work anymore, what do we replace with it.
I enjoy Mencken,but never forget that Mencken was a racist, and in his later year was a advocate of a kind of authoritarian rule.
 
The "We Are So Much Better then the Proles" attitude that some posters have is getting unbearable.
 
dudalb said:
You have totally lost faith in Democracy in the US, haven't you?
I just don't think the American people are as dumb or willing to give up their freedom as you think there are. Some desperate voters in the Rust Belt States made a bad decision;I don't think that is cause for basically indulging in despair porn.
And this verges on Conspriacy Theory thinking.
Click to expand...

I've set a reminder for November 4, 2020, the day after the election, with a link to my comment.

I'll do my best to reply to this thread at that time with an honest assesment of what I got right, and what I got wrong.

Assuming, of course, I'm not dead or in a gulag somewhere.
 
dudalb said:
If Democracy does not work anymore, what do we replace with it.
I enjoy Mencken,but never forget that Mencken was a racist, and in his later year was a advocate of a kind of authoritarian rule.
Click to expand...
That doesn't necessarily make him wrong.

Democracy is worst form of government, except all the others. - Winston Churchill (or something to that effect, I didn't look it up.)
 
MrFliop said:
Let's see how all our predictions of Trump have turned out
Click to expand...

My predictions on Trump so far have been:

Trump will not only win the Republican nomination, but he will win the Presidency. (Made early last year and met with complete derision here)

The Republican establishment will fall in line behind Trump.

The Republicans will increase their control of the Senate in 2018.

Trump will win re-election in 2020 pretty easily.

Trump will be a complete disaster, but that doesn't matter anymore.
 
halleyscomet said:
I've set a reminder for November 4, 2020, the day after the election, with a link to my comment.

I'll do my best to reply to this thread at that time with an honest assesment of what I got right, and what I got wrong.

Assuming, of course, I'm not dead or in a gulag somewhere.
Click to expand...

And assuming this website still exists.
 
Wayward son said:
My predictions on Trump so far have been:

Trump will not only win the Republican nomination, but he will win the Presidency. (Made early last year and met with complete derision here)

The Republican establishment will fall in line behind Trump.

The Republicans will increase their control of the Senate in 2018.

Trump will win re-election in 2020 pretty easily.

Trump will be a complete disaster, but that doesn't matter anymore.
Click to expand...

I repeat:If what you said is true then Democracy is a failure.
What would you replace it with?
 
dudalb said:
If Democracy does not work anymore, what do we replace with it.
Click to expand...

I don't think that democracy will be completely replaced. Putin has shown how well his kind of "democracy" works for people like him.

But personally, I think that the kind of Liberal democracy we have enjoyed since the end of WWII is on the way out for now. Trump (and Le Pen etc) is not the cause of that, he is a symptom of decades where elites ignored the common people and were only interested in making the well off richer and more comfortable.
 
Wayward son said:
I don't think that democracy will be completely replaced. Putin has shown how well his kind of "democracy" works for people like him.

But personally, I think that the kind of Liberal democracy we have enjoyed since the end of WWII is on the way out for now. Trump (and Le Pen etc) is not the cause of that, he is a symptom of decades where elites ignored the common people and were only interested in making the well off richer and more comfortable.
Click to expand...

The US and Russia are different. Russia does not have the tradition of Democracy that the US has, and nothing like the Constituion.
And Putin might not be as invincible as you think.
 
dudalb said:
And I think that Trump, so far, if proving to be totally incompetent will be a major factor.
Click to expand...

I can only hope voters recognize the incompetence. I think many definitely will and many are currently which is reflected in his low approval rating. However, things are so unpredictable and it is a long way until 2020.

I also agree that despair is not the path. Everyone needs to continue to call him out on the lies and idiocy driven by his narcissism. I also have more confidence in the working class voters in the rust belt to recognize this. If they don't see their wages increase by 2020, they will vote him out of office.
 
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