Brexit: Now What? Part III

[3point14]

I completely agree.

What I am not certain about is what the best option is having left the EU. I think and continue to think the UK should be part of the EU. But if we have to leave perhaps not being part of the EFTA is the right course. Being part of the EFTA offers all the disadvantages of being in the EU but none of the advantages. It seems definitely worse than being in the EU. Is not being part of the EFTA better than being in the EFTA? Is not being part of the customs union better than being part of the customs union?

The problem is this will not be clear until detailed negotiations are done, and the options are clearer.

Personally I would like a redo referendum once the shape of Brexit was much clearer, but that is because I am a sore loser and want a second bite at the poisoned apple because I think the pro Brexit voters were clearly mad, stupid or both.

Would the EU offer a compromise to keep the UK in the EU? I do not think so. I suspect if the EU came back with 'perhaps we could consider a limited suspension of freedom of movement for the UK' then this might be in Scottish speak a significant change to justify a repeat referendum. But this has not nor do I think it will happen. The principle of freedom of movement for the EU is more important than unity.

The reality is that there will be no second EU referendum whatever I may wish for.

The best option is to not leave the EU. There's no need or necessity for the UK to leave the EU. We had a non-binding referendum with unchecked lies being thrown around by the lying, unprincipled commanders of the leave campaign. Now that this has become abundantly clear, now the cost of leaving the EU has become crystallised it is extremely obvious that leaving is to the detriment of almost everyone in the country.

Now that this is clear, it is obvious to anyone with half a brain who's looked at the lies told by the leave campaign that leaving is a total disaster.


We have a parliament full of politicians with no backbone and no principle most of the the conservative members of which were bang alongside remaining in the EU until June and now they think it's a cracking idea because their concern for the safety of their parties nomination for their seat outweighs their concern for the economic and political future of the country.

As, just one MP said, it's suicide.

 

[ceptimus]

What makes you think that the EU do nothing?

I never said they did nothing - I said they did nothing useful. Obviously they do do some things - such as awarding themselves generous pension entitlements that are paid for by European taxpayers.

 

[3point14]

I never said they did nothing - I said they did nothing useful. Obviously they do do some things - such as awarding themselves generous pension entitlements that are paid for by European taxpayers.

What makes you think they do nothing useful?

Has the enormous list of things that the UK will now need to pay for itself not swayed you?

 

[ceptimus]

We voted to leave. We didn't vote to leave contingent on getting a good deal, or indeed any kind of deal. Remain enthusiasts who are bad losers need to remember that simple fact.

 

[Planigale]

Who would sign a trade deal with Britain if we just walked away from an obligation?
How much trade would we have with Europe?
It would wreck any standing we had in the world as a reliable partner.

You say in your example on Scotlands share of debt

That would apply equally to Britain running from obligations to the EU.

Well because the Rest of the UK would have a huge amount of debt and the last thing anyone would want to do is upset the international financial markets by taking any action to endanger the security of that debt. That includes large amounts of dubious money by even more dubious oligarchs who really would not like anything to upset their running away fund. The financial reality is the UK could walk away and it would leave the EU feeling grumpy but no one would do much about it. Can you see the US under Trump coming down on the EU side? China, Japan? So the dispute will be EU vs UK. A clean break to WTO status will leave the EU with little that they can do.

Having lots of debt actually is a powerful position.

 

[ceptimus]

What makes you think they do nothing useful?

Has the enormous list of things that the UK will now need to pay for itself not swayed you?

No - for the simple fact that we won't pay for most of them. The EU is flying a kite and trying to get us to agree to pay for the moon. Obviously we'll pay what's really owed - and the EU can pay us what they owe us too. After we leave we won't be making any further payments.

 

[3point14]

We voted to leave. We didn't vote to leave contingent on getting a good deal, or indeed any kind of deal. Remain enthusiasts who are bad losers need to remember that simple fact.

'We' voted to leave off the back of a campaign run on lies.

You might think it's a good idea to plunge headlong into global oblivion off the back of a blatantly manipulated, poorly informed, non binding, poor turnout public vote.

I think that shows an alarming lack of foresight and a fundamental deficiency in understanding how global and national politics and finance work. Which, to be fair, is not a conclusion I find myself surprised to arrive at.

 

[Planigale]

We voted to leave. We didn't vote to leave contingent on getting a good deal, or indeed any kind of deal. Remain enthusiasts who are bad losers need to remember that simple fact.

I agree with this.

Whilst I did not vote for Brexit. Those that I know that did so more on a point of principle. They would accept a cost to leaving. They knew that the shape of Brexit was uncertain.

I completely accept I am a bad loser on this (in general I am a bad loser on Monopoly and Scrabble too but I do better with Epidemic). Interestingly I was not a bad loser on Scottish indolence* because I was much more ambivalent about it, perhaps unlike 'ethnic' Scots I did not have emotional investment in being "Scottish'.

*Whoops spell check error Scottish 'indolence' was supposed to read Scottish 'independence' my computer has obviously decided to adopt a pro unionist stance! I assume the computer will be cheering for France!

 

[ceptimus]

poor turnout

No. Higher turnout than in any UK General election since 1992. 72.2%

 

[3point14]

I agree with this.

Whilst I did not vote for Brexit. Those that I know that did so more on a point of principle. They would accept a cost to leaving. They knew that the shape of Brexit was uncertain.

They were told, in no uncertain terms that the UK would have more money after leaving the EU - it was a fundamental point of the leave campaign. It was a lie. Poorly informed people were grossly manipulated to vote for a lie. Nobody on the leave side ever said 'we might all be poorer after this - it was simply not part of the discussion.

I completely accept I am a bad loser on this (in general I am a bad loser on Monopoly and Scrabble too but I do better with Epidemic). Interestingly I was not a bad loser on Scottish indolence* because I was much more ambivalent about it, perhaps unlike 'ethnic' Scots I did not have emotional investment in being "Scottish'.

*Whoops spell check error Scottish 'indolence' was supposed to read Scottish 'independence' my computer has obviously decided to adopt a pro unionist stance! I assume the computer will be cheering for France!

If someone can find me the 'we will be poorer but happier' memo from the leave campaign, I'll reconsider, but at the moment it is grossly obvious we are headed for international oblivion on the back of lies.

 

[3point14]

No. Higher turnout than in any UK General election since 1992. 72.2%

If that's all you have then my worldview remains unrocked.

 

[ceptimus]

They were told, in no uncertain terms that the UK would have more money after leaving the EU.

I think you're overstating this, but in any case it might yet prove to be true, your opinion notwithstanding.

I've always thought that the UK will be worse off during and immediately following Brexit but that there will probably be long term benefits. Most leave campaigners said the same thing and this was even the forecast by the Bank of England - despite their biased pro-remain position.

 

[Planigale]

They were told, in no uncertain terms that the UK would have more money after leaving the EU - it was a fundamental point of the leave campaign. It was a lie. Poorly informed people were grossly manipulated to vote for a lie. Nobody on the leave side ever said 'we might all be poorer after this - it was simply not part of the discussion.






If someone can find me the 'we will be poorer but happier' memo from the leave campaign, I'll reconsider, but at the moment it is grossly obvious we are headed for international oblivion on the back of lies.

Here are a couple of articles that include the concept of a short term cost to Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-is-like-the-titanic-and-we-need-to-jump-off/
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/brexit-short-term-pain-long-term-gain/
The second includes an opinion poll suggesting that the concept of short term cost vs long term gain was widely appreciated.

 

[3point14]

Here are a couple of articles that include the concept of a short term cost to Brexit.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-is-like-the-titanic-and-we-need-to-jump-off/
http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/brexit-short-term-pain-long-term-gain/
The second includes an opinion poll suggesting that the concept of short term cost vs long term gain was widely appreciated.

Thank you. Neither of those are from the leave side of things and therefore would be dismissed by the leaders of the leave campaign as nothing more than the opinion of experts.

Again, no-one on the leave side of things said, as far as I'm aware, "It'll get much worse before it gets better."

 

[Planigale]

Thank you. Neither of those are from the leave side of things and therefore would be dismissed by the leaders of the leave campaign as nothing more than the opinion of experts.

Again, no-one on the leave side of things said, as far as I'm aware, "It'll get much worse before it gets better."

One was from the Daily Telegraph, I assumed this was a pro-leave paper?

 

[3point14]

One was from the Daily Telegraph, I assumed this was a pro-leave paper?

Possibly, but not formally part of the leave campaign which was, simply put, a pack of lies. According to the campaign it was going to be roses and honey and we were all going to be £350M/week better off.

There was never any acknowledgement from a leave campaign filled with the unscrupulous and with those who had no particular opinion but that thought it might be good for their career to hitch their wagons to a train run on ********.

The campaign to remain was practically non-existent, the campaign to leave was a body of work in which one would struggle to find a grain of truth and our entire press corps was too damn afraid of rocking the boat to actually print the required headline, prior to the referendum, which would have looked like this:

LIES!
Here is the list of lies told by Boris and Nigel. See also pages 2, 3, 5-7, 9, 15 and our special, 'lies told by leave' four page pullout.

 

[CapelDodger]

A clean break to WTO status will leave the EU with little that they can do.

"Fog in Channel, Continent isolated".

 

[ddt]

I completely accept I am a bad loser on this (in general I am a bad loser on Monopoly and Scrabble too but I do better with Epidemic). Interestingly I was not a bad loser on Scottish indolence* because I was much more ambivalent about it, perhaps unlike 'ethnic' Scots I did not have emotional investment in being "Scottish'.

You mean Pandemic, I presume? Duh, it's a cooperative game; you either all win or all lose. BTW, one of my favourite games.

 

[Planigale]

You mean Pandemic, I presume? Duh, it's a cooperative game; you either all win or all lose. BTW, one of my favourite games.

Yes I did mean pandemic. Thank you.
Yes I agree an excellent game.

 

[Garrison]

We voted to leave. We didn't vote to leave contingent on getting a good deal, or indeed any kind of deal. Remain enthusiasts who are bad losers need to remember that simple fact.

Really? Because until they got the vote they wanted that was exactly what the Leave campaign promised.