Brexit: Now What? Part III

[ceptimus]

Well they can hope for it. But it will never happen in reality. Wait and see. Anyway, I'm done discussing this with you. Time will tell.

 

[Strawberry]

Well they can hope for it. But it will never happen in reality. Wait and see. Anyway, I'm done discussing this with you. Time will tell.

It always amazes me that you Brexit types never have any understanding of how the EU actually works. You'd think you'd make an effort to understand what you're a member of, and what leaving would entail, before you voted to leave.

 

[Andy_Ross]

It serves them right, British Citizens working for the EU are obviously traitors and don't deserve a pension.

 

[dudalb]

What the hell did the EU do to make ceptimus have such a over the top hate for it?

 

[ceptimus]

It serves them right, British Citizens working for the EU are obviously traitors and don't deserve a pension.

They'll get their state pension plus any pension rights that they've already accrued. Once we leave the EU they'll be out of a job and they can't expect their previous employer to carry on putting money into their pension pots - no employer does that. They'll be free to look for a new job just like any other ex-employees. If the EU wants to continue to employ them that's fine - obviously the EU will then pay into their pension pots using the EU's own funds.

I don't see why any of this is difficult to understand. It's only in the bizarre EU universe that anything different would be dreamt of.

 

[wobs]

We won't be paying the pensions of retired EU bureaucrats after we've left. Currently their average pension is about three times the average British worker's salary.

We paid into their pension pot for all the time we've been members (that's part of the £350 million per week). Why on earth do you think we should continue to pay after we've left? If you leave a job, do you expect your ex employer to continue making contributions towards your pension? If so, I wonder what colour the sky is in your universe.

I'll just leave this here:

Pensions make up the third component. The liabilities for the EU’s unfunded scheme stand at over €60bn. Britain may be prepared to cover its own nationals. But European officials insist that all liabilities are a joint responsibility, as Eurocrats work for the EU, not their national governments. This may be the fiercest row of all.

Brussels’s demand will combine these three elements with a few miscellaneous items, and may adjust for Britain’s share of EU assets, its budget rebate and payments it is due from the EU (see chart).

http://www.economist.com/news/brita...ti-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

Might not be as cut & dry as you say.Bill stands at between Euro40-60bn.. ish

 

[ceptimus]

The EU hasn't had audited accounts for years. No one really knows how much debt they have. They're just plucking wishful figures out of thin air. Of course the EU would like Britain to pay its pensions but of course we will refuse to do so.

 

[CapelDodger]

And you think that one of the first things we should do as a newly 'independent' nation is to make it clear to the world that we cannot be relied on to fulfill obligations that we signed up for?

That.

 

[CapelDodger]

The EU hasn't had audited accounts for years.

What do you mean by that, and where did you get it from?

No one really knows how much debt they have.

Thay do. They don't know how much they'll have in two years time, but then who does?

They're just plucking wishful figures out of thin air.

They really aren't. You must be thinking of "£350m a week".

Of course the EU would like Britain to pay its pensions but of course we will refuse to do so.

How very Trumpian of us.

 

[CapelDodger]

What the hell did the EU do to make ceptimus have such a over the top hate for it?

Joining Europe was a stark recognition of the End of Empire. That's a trauma some people have never come to terms with.

 

[ddt]

We paid into their pension pot for all the time we've been members (that's part of the £350 million per week). Why on earth do you think we should continue to pay after we've left? If you leave a job, do you expect your ex employer to continue making contributions towards your pension? If so, I wonder what colour the sky is in your universe.

It's an unfunded scheme. No-one has been paying into their pension pot ever, the EU pension obligations are paid out of current accounts. And actually, that's the dominant scheme in the UK as well:

Approximately 60% of pension provision in the UK is unfunded, comprising http://www.actuaries.org/EVENTS/Seminars/Brighton/presentations/lewis.pdfstate
pension benefits and some public sector occupational pension schemes.

So yes, when the UK leaves it'll have to contribute to future pension claims of EU personnel.

http://www.economist.com/news/brita...ti-billion-euro-exit-charge-could-sink-brexit

From that link:

If a compromise cannot be reached, Britain might find itself hauled before the International Court of Justice.

Couldn't it be the ECJ, pretty please? Brexiteers LOVE the ECJ.

The EU hasn't had audited accounts for years.

Brexit propaganda.
https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36276175

No one really knows how much debt they have.

[ citation required ]

They're just plucking wishful figures out of thin air.

[ citation required ]

Of course the EU would like Britain to pay its pensions but of course we will refuse to do so.

That sounds so crude. I think the British tradition is to promise to pay its debts but not do it. There's still some debt outstanding dating back to the South Sea Bubble of 1720.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

All the EU talk of the UK making payments to the EU in order to leave is nonsense on stilts. They want €60 billion so they can pay pensions to retired EU officials after we've left. Hahaha!

No one pays to leave a club. When you leave a club you just walk away and if the club asks you for money you tell the club to get stuffed.

Not if you owe them money you don't. They sue you if you do that.

 

[Planigale]

It's an unfunded scheme. No-one has been paying into their pension pot ever, the EU pension obligations are paid out of current accounts. And actually, that's the dominant scheme in the UK as well:


So yes, when the UK leaves it'll have to contribute to future pension claims of EU personnel.

From that link:

Couldn't it be the ECJ, pretty please? Brexiteers LOVE the ECJ.

Brexit propaganda.
https://fullfact.org/europe/did-auditors-sign-eu-budget/
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36276175

[ citation required ]

[ citation required ]

That sounds so crude. I think the British tradition is to promise to pay its debts but not do it. There's still some debt outstanding dating back to the South Sea Bubble of 1720.

I think this is likely to be the truth. It is difficult to make nations pay debts. If the EU want UK cash, this will be a negotiating issue. The UK could walk away, the EU then could undertake prolonged legal action at the ICJ to enforce the debt, the problem is any enforcement is done via the UN security council on which the UK is a permanent member with a veto. So effectively the EU will be unable to enforce any decision against the UK. Equally there will have to be negotiations over a lump sum payment vs. staged payments, currency, interest.

So since this is effectively an unenforceable debt to get payment the EU will have to offer incentives to the UK. The EU does itself no favours by bigging up the debt, as any smaller amount agreed at the end of the negotiations looks like a loss for the EU and gain for the UK.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

So since this is effectively an unenforceable debt

Funny that. When it was suggested that Scotland would not be on the hook for UK debt that it never ran up post independence this was considered the end of the world. When the UK wants to walk away from the debt it is legitimately due then it's unenforceable and not an issue.

I think the UK may find it slightly harder to walk away from this debt than the foam-mouthed Brexiteers seem to think.

 

[3point14]

I think the UK may find it slightly harder to walk away from this debt than the foam-mouthed Brexiteers seem to think.

I've not actually met anyone in favour of the UK leaving the EU that actually has a realistic grasp on the issues.

This is somewhat understandable as the entire campaign in favour of leaving was a pack of lies. And yet, here we are.

 

[Planigale]

Funny that. When it was suggested that Scotland would not be on the hook for UK debt that it never ran up post independence this was considered the end of the world. When the UK wants to walk away from the debt it is legitimately due then it's unenforceable and not an issue.

I think the UK may find it slightly harder to walk away from this debt than the foam-mouthed Brexiteers seem to think.

The reality is that the UK has a veto on the Security Council. Now politically one may not want to be in the position of vetoing action against one's self but the EU will know that getting the money if they want it is a matter of negotiation. I do not think the Uk government will walk away from the payment but they will not agree to it pre-negotiation. I would not expect them to. I would expect the UK to say entirely neutral things neither recognising the debt nor denying that any payment will be made. I guess that if the EU want £60 billion in cash then they will have to concede £60 billion in tarrifs. This may mean some deal on the city.

An indépendant Scotland will not be in a powerful negotiating position, this is reality. It may not be fair but once independence has happened the rest of the UK has to get the best deal they can at the cost of Scotland. Scotland's negotiator's will get the best deal they can for Scotland at the cost of the rest of the UK. Any split on assets will include a split on debt. Remember no other existing country will look in favour of territories becoming independent doing so without a split in debt, so it is not as if there will be a popular support from other nations. Just as the EU wants to discourage Brexit imitators so other countries will want to discourage splits and are likely to favour a hard deal for Scotland to discourage local cessationist movements. It is all like being back at school, there are bitches and bullies and cliques and some nice but boring girls who will be your friend if attend CU.

Anyway we now know that the drive for Scottish Independence is being driven by the Kremlin, Nicola is presumably a fellow traveller rather than a sleeper. Perhaps Trump can have words with his friend Putin and close down this campaign!

 

[Andy_Ross]

Who would sign a trade deal with Britain if we just walked away from an obligation?
How much trade would we have with Europe?
It would wreck any standing we had in the world as a reliable partner.

You say in your example on Scotlands share of debt

Remember no other existing country will look in favour of territories becoming independent doing so without a split in debt, so it is not as if there will be a popular support from other nations.

That would apply equally to Britain running from obligations to the EU.

 

[ceptimus]

Oh dear! Who will pay the pensions after the EU collapses?

In any case, like any contracting organization that is losing funding, the EU needs to get a grip on its pension bill.

• The pensions are ludicrously munificent - three times average UK salary. There should be an immediate 50% cut with further cuts staged till the pensions get down to the average pensions paid by other organizations.
• Raise the retirement age - as is being done by most countries for their unfunded pensions. The EU bureaucrats don't do anything useful anyway so their jobs could be done just as well, arguably better, by doddering octogenarians. An immediate rise of the retirement age to 75 is justified with further raises staged in later.
• No pension entitlements for any new employees. Let them save for their own private pensions just like any normal employee. This will be in their own interests anyway as when the EU eventually collapses the ex-employees will still hold onto their private pensions.

 

[3point14]

Oh dear! Who will pay the pensions after the EU collapses?

In any case, like any contracting organization that is losing funding, the EU needs to get a grip on its pension bill.

• The pensions are ludicrously munificent - three times average UK salary. There should be an immediate 50% cut with further cuts staged till the pensions get down to the average pensions paid by other organizations.
• Raise the retirement age - as is being done by most countries for their unfunded pensions. The EU bureaucrats don't do anything useful anyway so their jobs could be done just as well, arguably better, by doddering octogenarians. An immediate rise of the retirement age to 75 is justified with further raises staged in later.
• No pension entitlements for any new employees. Let them save for their own private pensions just like any normal employee. This will be in their own interests anyway as when the EU eventually collapses the ex-employees will still hold onto their private pensions.

Can you prove any of the above?

What makes you think that the EU do nothing - have you been reading the fiction that is the daily mail again? you know they lie, don't you? Not even Wikipedia believes the daily mail.

 

[Planigale]

I've not actually met anyone in favour of the UK leaving the EU that actually has a realistic grasp on the issues.

This is somewhat understandable as the entire campaign in favour of leaving was a pack of lies. And yet, here we are.

I completely agree.

What I am not certain about is what the best option is having left the EU. I think and continue to think the UK should be part of the EU. But if we have to leave perhaps not being part of the EFTA is the right course. Being part of the EFTA offers all the disadvantages of being in the EU but none of the advantages. It seems definitely worse than being in the EU. Is not being part of the EFTA better than being in the EFTA? Is not being part of the customs union better than being part of the customs union?

The problem is this will not be clear until detailed negotiations are done, and the options are clearer.

Personally I would like a redo referendum once the shape of Brexit was much clearer, but that is because I am a sore loser and want a second bite at the poisoned apple because I think the pro Brexit voters were clearly mad, stupid or both.

Would the EU offer a compromise to keep the UK in the EU? I do not think so. I suspect if the EU came back with 'perhaps we could consider a limited suspension of freedom of movement for the UK' then this might be in Scottish speak a significant change to justify a repeat referendum. But this has not nor do I think it will happen. The principle of freedom of movement for the EU is more important than unity.

The reality is that there will be no second EU referendum whatever I may wish for.