Brexit: Now What? Part II

[McHrozni]

Won't that likely lead to an increase in migration numbers to U.K pre-brexit then?

Why yes, it most likely will. I mentioned earlier that most Leave voters didn't know what they were voting for and that most of those who did won't get it anyway, didn't I?

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

I
Wouldnt be sure that deal will happen. Hanging the uk expats out to dry might be seen as a price worth paying to oust the eastern europeans that the deplorables hate so much

Possible, but unlikely. The disruption would be pretty severe. Unless Theresa May is really out to make Brexit as damaging as possible for that idiotic Dunkirk spirit thing, there will be a deal of sorts.

McHrozni

 

[Amazer]

Nope. Thats not needed for tourism for most people. I know from personal experience.

True, lots of countries have signed visa waiver programs which allow citizens of those countries to enter without a visa.

Just one more item on the agenda once article 50 is triggered.

 

[The Don]

Nope. Thats not needed for tourism for most people. I know from personal experience.

I guess it depends on how the UK is classified in the future. IMO it's most likely to be classified in the same way as most non-EU developed countries and given some kind of visa waiver.

Then again it will also depend on the way in which the UK treats EU tourists. If, in order to "keep control of EU migration" and EU citizens sneaking into the UK as tourists and staying on to work, we implement strict border controls for EU tourists including insisting that they have visas, then it's likely that those moves would be reciprocated by the EU.

A ex-colleague from South Africa who was working in Scotland on a work visa had a sister living in Paris. Every time he wanted to go and visit her, he had to take a day off work and go to the consulate in Edinburgh and apply for a once-only visa to get access to the Schengen area. Because he was from Africa they refused to give him a multi-entry visa. IIRC applying for it was expensive both in terms of time and money.

It's possible, but unlikely that UK citizens could find themselves in a similar situation, that before our summer trip to Spain, Italy or Greece, or a ski holiday in France, Italy or Austria the family has to spend £100 or so getting the visas sorted out. IMO it all depends on what measures the UK puts in place.

As for visiting the EU to do a few days work - as I currently have to do regularly - that will IMO become more difficult but the "good news" is that my company is likely to lose those contracts to our EU competition in any case so:

• Those (relatively) high paying, highly skilled jobs will be lost from the UK economy
• The several hundred thousand pounds in "invisible" exports will be lost and the UK's balance of trade surplus in services will drop
• The exchequer will lose close to £100k in corporation tax that it curently receives, possilby more if we can kep the comapny going in profit and the UK drops corporation taxes in a desperate attempt to attract business to the UK

Happy days

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

True, lots of countries have signed visa waiver programs which allow citizens of those countries to enter without a visa.

Just one more item on the agenda once article 50 is triggered.

I dont think it will be a huge issue though. On the list of things to be agreed it should be one of the most simple provided the Brexiteers dont do anything stupid like try to avoid it applying to Romanians.

 

[The Don]

Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Mr Johnson said: "We will no longer be part of the common commercial policy, or bound by the Common External Tariff, and we will no longer have our trade policy run by the EU commission.

"That means - crucially - that we will be able to do new free trade deals with countries around the world. They are already queuing up.

"Under EU rules, we are not formally allowed to negotiate these new treaties until we leave. But there is nothing to say that ideas cannot be pencilled in."

"We will continue the joyous exploration of other European culture and civilisation that has been expanding ever since the dawn of cheap air travel, and we will continue to welcome vast numbers of EU tourists to the UK.

"We are not slamming the door to migrants, or hauling up the drawbridge."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38658998

Which brings us back to the "benefits" of Brexit.

I'm not aware of huge swathes of international export contracts that the UK has lost out on by being a member of the EU. Indeed, our competition for those overseas markets is often our EU partners. I can see how "free trade" arrangements with developing markets will likely be a boon for those importing to the UK but I simply do not see where this tidal wave of UK exports will come from. Looking at my own business, Management and IT services, the only countries who can afford our rates (£1000+ a day) for our highly skilled consultants are in the EU. Dealing with the US is a nightmare (we know, we've tried) and in any case getting our required rates is almost impossible.

There isn't the demand out there in the developing world for our skills, much less the skills at the rates we charge.

Another Brexit myth was that, freed of the shackles of EU bureaucracy, the UK would become far more competitive on the world stage. I still haven't seen anyone explain how this can be achieved without a significant erosion in pay, conditions and job security for UK workers and/or getting rid of all kinds of legislation that protects workers, the public and the environment.

UK "inefficiency" isn't the fault of the EU, many EU countries have far higher efficiency and output per person, it's the fault UK management, workforce, working practices and a host of other factors under the control of the UK whether we're in the EU or not.

No-one on the Brexit side has explained how we will suddenly become more efficient.

 

[The Don]

Certainly most EU countries do for non eu tourists. It is called a Shengen tourist visa

"Who needs a Schengen Visa?
Non-European citizens willing to travel to the Schengen Area are bound to apply for a short-term Schengen visa under “tourist” specification. Depending on the visa issued they may be allowed to enter once (single entry) or multiple times (multiple entry) and stay for no longer than 3 months 90 days per year in between the period of 6 months. Such a decision is made by the authorities depending on the nature of ones travel purpose and other relevant factors"

Nope. Thats not needed for tourism for most people. I know from personal experience.

You're right. The countries that require a Schengen Visa are either in the developing world or parts of the former Soviet Union outside the EU:

http://www.schengenvisainfo.com/who-needs-schengen-visa/

 

[The Don]

Possible, but unlikely. The disruption would be pretty severe. Unless Theresa May is really out to make Brexit as damaging as possible for that idiotic Dunkirk spirit thing, there will be a deal of sorts.

McHrozni

I have little confidence that the UK has the skills to get any kind of deal.

So far (and I'm including Cameron's pre-referendum negotiations) our approach appears to be "If we don't get everything we want, we're going to throw the baby out with the bath water". I don't see how this will be any different.

We will want UK citizens living abroad to enjoy the full benefits of being an EU resident (with the costs being borne by the host country) whilst not reciprocating that for EU citizens, especially those who have arrived relatively recently and/or who are not currently in full time employment.

 

[McHrozni]

I have little confidence that the UK has the skills to get any kind of deal.

So far (and I'm including Cameron's pre-referendum negotiations) our approach appears to be "If we don't get everything we want, we're going to throw the baby out with the bath water". I don't see how this will be any different.

We will want UK citizens living abroad to enjoy the full benefits of being an EU resident (with the costs being borne by the host country) whilst not reciprocating that for EU citizens, especially those who have arrived relatively recently and/or who are not currently in full time employment.

This is how the current situation arose, true. And Theresa May did say no deal was better than a bad deal, although there is no democratic mandate for that at all or indeed how her statement could be true.

Incidentally, how do they intend to negotiate trade deals with that attitude? Do they realize EU has been especially accommodating to UK and they won't find such live elsewhere?

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

You're right. The countries that require a Schengen Visa are either in the developing world or parts of the former Soviet Union outside the EU:

http://www.schengenvisainfo.com/who-needs-schengen-visa/

That of course doesn't mean UK couldn't be added on the list if it leaves the EU. It's highly unlikely to happen, but entirely possible.

McHrozni

 

[3point14]

Of course this isn't all about keeping out the foreigners, the Conservatives are positively salivating at the thought of all those employment rights they can rip up now we won't have the EU to force them to treat workers like people instead of disposable parts.

This has been my belief since the whole thing started.

Bleak times ahead, erosion of civil liberties, erosion of workers rights and environmental protections. I really think this is the thrust of it, the aim of the demagoguery of the right wing is to make doing business as cheap as possible regardless of the consequences thereof.

It's at times like these I'm rather glad I didn't have kids.

 

[Aepervius]

Wrong. There are buckets of migrants working on a cash only basis in every EU country. In the UK, the border control folks are overwhelmed by the sheer volume of illegals,

Agaim you are speaking of non EU migrant. I am speaking of illegal UK nationals in the EU. And vice versa.

That is unlikely for the reason I mentioned. Non EU is another matter altogether.

 

[Mid]

...snip...

Another Brexit myth was that, freed of the shackles of EU bureaucracy, the UK would become far more competitive on the world stage. I still haven't seen anyone explain how this can be achieved without a significant erosion in pay, conditions and job security for UK workers and/or getting rid of all kinds of legislation that protects workers, the public and the environment.

...snip...

Well the obvious answer is that in the long term these protections will be removed but not many Brexiters are going to want to admit that. And when they are removed it will be spun as being a positive thing rather like the right to be instantly fired in a number of US states is called right to work laws.

 

[McHrozni]

Well the obvious answer is that in the long term these protections will be removed but not many Brexiters are going to want to admit that. And when they are removed it will be spun as being a positive thing rather like the right to be instantly fired in a number of US states is called right to work laws.

That's one thing where Brexit should be called out repeatedly, loudly and often. It's high time that those in charge of Brexit explain what other consequences it will have on the country.

If that results in a drop of support, then perfect.

McHrozni

 

[Mid]

That's one thing where Brexit should be called out repeatedly, loudly and often. It's high time that those in charge of Brexit explain what other consequences it will have on the country.

If that results in a drop of support, then perfect.

McHrozni

I quite agree but it won't be as Corbyn can't stop himself from going off tangent into something irrelevant. And also anytime any other politician mentions the consequences of Brexit they get accused of going against the "Will of the People".

 

[The Don]

That of course doesn't mean UK couldn't be added on the list if it leaves the EU. It's highly unlikely to happen, but entirely possible.

McHrozni

Exactly, as I said earlier....

I guess it depends on how the UK is classified in the future. IMO it's most likely to be classified in the same way as most non-EU developed countries and given some kind of visa waiver.

Then again it will also depend on the way in which the UK treats EU tourists. If, in order to "keep control of EU migration" and EU citizens sneaking into the UK as tourists and staying on to work, we implement strict border controls for EU tourists including insisting that they have visas, then it's likely that those moves would be reciprocated by the EU.

...<snip>....

 

[The Don]

And also anytime any other politician mentions the consequences of Brexit they get accused of going against the "Will of the People".

....and if they attempt to demonstrate what's likely to happen they will be shouted down because "experts don't know anything".

I've said it repeatedly, somehow we've allowed ourselves to be convinced that a narrow referendum victory for a poorly defined outcome is somehow an enormous and ringing mandate for fundamental (and IMO catastrophic) change.

 

[McHrozni]

I quite agree but it won't be as Corbyn can't stop himself from going off tangent into something irrelevant. And also anytime any other politician mentions the consequences of Brexit they get accused of going against the "Will of the People".

There is a very easy counter to that: British people did not vote on whether or not to drastically reduce employment rights. Brexit does not dictate, or even imply, reducing those rights.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

In other Brexit news, Boris is claiming that countries are queuing up for trade deals:

That means - crucially - that we will be able to do new free trade deals with countries around the world. They are already queuing up.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38658998

Well of course they are, in much the same way as there are queues outside shops on Boxing day - prospective international trading partners have a one-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get an amazing deal while the UK is desperate

 

[The Don]

There is a very easy counter to that: British people did not vote on whether or not to drastically reduce employment rights. Brexit does not dictate, or even imply, reducing those rights.

McHrozni

Trouble is that there's no guarantee that it's going to happen - we're just very suspicious that it will.

Brexiteers will talk of a new golden age of more and better employment once the new trade deals are in place but that'll take at least years, if not decades, by then it's too late. They've specifically mentioned workers' rights.