Brexit: Now What? Part II

[ceptimus]

Rule 12.

Nothing to stop you attacking the Daily Mail, but in a critical thinking forum it's bad form to do that just because you can't address the argument. At its worst it's a sort of diversion tactic (a.k.a. derailing the thread).

People asked for a source to back up my statement that Romanian immigrants are disproportionately likely to be thieves. I did a Google search and the Daily Mail link was the top one. I don't read the Daily Mail myself - in fact I've not bought a newspaper for over thirty years. I sometimes read newspapers that others have left lying around in waiting rooms and similar - but they are very rarely the Daily Mail. I get most of my news from the BBC which seems to me to be rather left leaning of late.

 

[ceptimus]

Rule 12.

Nothing to stop you attacking the Daily Mail, but in a critical thinking forum it's bad form to do that just because you can't address the argument. At its worst it's a sort of diversion tactic (a.k.a. derailing the thread).

People asked for a source to back up my statement that Romanian immigrants are disproportionately likely to be thieves. I did a Google search and the Daily Mail link was the top one. I don't read the Daily Mail myself - in fact I've not bought a newspaper for over thirty years. I sometimes read newspapers that others have left lying around in waiting rooms and similar - but they are very rarely the Daily Mail. I get most of my news from the BBC which seems to me to be rather left leaning of late.

 

[Lothian]

Rule 12.

Nothing to stop you attacking the Daily Mail, but in a critical thinking forum it's bad form to do that just because you can't address the argument. At its worst it's a sort of diversion tactic (a.k.a. derailing the thread).

People asked for a source to back up my statement that Romanian immigrants are disproportionately likely to be thieves. I did a Google search and the Daily Mail link was the top one. I don't read the Daily Mail myself - in fact I've not bought a newspaper for over thirty years. I sometimes read newspapers that others have left lying around in waiting rooms and similar - but they are very rarely the Daily Mail. I get most of my news from the BBC which seems to me to be rather left leaning of late.

No your claim was

"Compared to the Romanian population in the UK, the number of Romanian metal thieves in the UK is VERY disproportionately high. "

We have a source that claims that way less than 1% of the Romanian population in the Uk are in prison. Given that stealing metal is only one possible crime I think your claim remains unproven.




P.S. Thanks for the sig line. Shame you left out the context. Given that is also a trait of the newspapers you find lying around in waiting rooms perhaps they influence you more than you think.

 

[Pixel42]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2963368/Romanians-EIGHT-times-likely-jailed-Britons.html

Yes, it's from the Daily Mail. But remember in this forum you're supposed to address the argument and not attack the source.

What argument are you making which you think this statistic supports?

I trust I do not need to explain to you why, for example, an argument that all Romanians should be barred from entry to the UK would not be supported by this statistic.

 

[The Don]

No your claim was

"Compared to the Romanian population in the UK, the number of Romanian metal thieves in the UK is VERY disproportionately high. "

We have a source that claims that way less than 1% of the Romanian population in the Uk are in prison. Given that stealing metal is only one possible crime I think your claim remains unproven.

I'd also be interested to see those numbers adjusted for gender, age and economic circumstances on the grounds that a poor, young, male is much more likely to commit a crime and end up in jail than a rich, old, lady.

 

[Lothian]

I'd also be interested to see those numbers adjusted for gender, age and economic circumstances on the grounds that a poor, young, male is much more likely to commit a crime and end up in jail than a rich, old, lady.

2.0% of Romanians in the UK are doctors working in the NHS. 5.9% if you count nurses.

0.3% of people born in the Uk living here are doctors

The 'disproportion' in respect of doctors is similar to the Daily Fail figures drooled over by ceptimus.



sources:
doctors
romanians
people born in the UK still here
nurses

 

[The Don]

2.0% of Romanians in the UK are doctors working in the NHS. 5.9% if you count nurses.

0.3% of people born in the Uk living here are doctors

The 'disproportion' in respect of doctors is similar to the Daily Fail figures drooled over by ceptimus.



sources:
doctors
romanians
people born in the UK still here
nurses

For sure, but compared to the UK population at large I would guess that Romanians are more likely to be young and male than the UK population in general.

I'd be interested to know whether young male Romanians are significantly more likely to be offenders than young male UK-born people.

For example in England men are approximately 20 times more likely to be in prison than women. 65% of the prison population are aged between 21 and 35.

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN04334/SN04334.pdf

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Apart from the statistical issues pointed out (it's not an apples to apples comparison) and a further issue could be that Romanians are more likely to be caught, charged, arrested and jailed than locals, there's also the issue that there is still nothing to stop Romanians coming to the UK to steal things if they want to even after Brexit.

You can certainly stop them working legally, I can't see how you can stop them visiting to do illegal things without some rather draconian measures that nobody in their right mind is going to suggest.

This is therefore a complete red herring.

 

[Aepervius]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2963368/Romanians-EIGHT-times-likely-jailed-Britons.html

Yes, it's from the Daily Mail. But remember in this forum you're supposed to address the argument and not attack the source.

The daily mail is ****. I am sorry but I linked you a PROPER study (which takes into account confounding factor like age, social class, and various other). If you are not able to link a proper study, then at least ADMIT that you were wrong about foreigner having more crime.

 

[abaddon]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2963368/Romanians-EIGHT-times-likely-jailed-Britons.html

Yes, it's from the Daily Mail. But remember in this forum you're supposed to address the argument and not attack the source.

You seem to be misinformed. "Attack the argument, not the arguer" is the rule. Unless you are claiming to actually be the Daily Fail, you are flat out wrong on that. The Daily Fail is fair game, low hanging fruit, and a tabloid nonsense source.

 

[Garrison]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2963368/Romanians-EIGHT-times-likely-jailed-Britons.html

Yes, it's from the Daily Mail. But remember in this forum you're supposed to address the argument and not attack the source.

Right... The credibility of the source is paramount and the Daily Mail has no credibility. Even if this story was true so what? What percentage of EU immigrants do these Romanian criminals represent? How many of them came here legally?

 

[Garrison]

You can certainly stop them working legally, I can't see how you can stop them visiting to do illegal things without some rather draconian measures that nobody in their right mind is going to suggest.

This is therefore a complete red herring.

Yep one of the delights of Brexit is that we get to keep out migrants willing to work hard and make a better life for themselves, while creating a boom for people traffickers to bring in people to work as little more than slaves for the unscrupulous and of course those criminals Ceptimus is so frantic about.

 

[abaddon]

Please try to debate more honestly.

One of the many issues in the referendum debates was to take back control over immigration from the EU - and for many of those who voted leave, I'm sure this was the main issue.

But no one - or at least hardly anyone, and certainly not me or Prime Minister May voted for 'an end to EU immigration period.' That would be an absurd thing to wish for and quite impossible to implement.

EU immigration will continue after Brexit, but those wishing to come and work here will need to get some sort of work visa - just the same as if they wished to emigrate to the USA or Australia.

If there is, for example, a shortage of doctors or nurses in the UK, and there are EU citizens who can fill those roles who wish to come to live and work in the UK then I'm sure they will be welcomed in.

On the other hand if some unqualified Romanians wish to come to the UK to steal copper pipes and electrical cable then they'll find it more difficult to come here than they do under the present rules.

Most people would agree that this is a good thing.

So what? The law abiding will abide by whatever visa regulations are put in place. That's hardly any surprise.

On the other hand, these ravening hordes of Romanian criminals, in your view, will also abide by these regulations because what? They are ravening hordes of criminals, according to you. Why would they conform to whatever regulations you want in any way? It is trivially easy to penetrate the porous UK border. If the romanians criminals and pickpockets you detest so much want to go to the UK so be it. You cannot stop it. The UK cannot stop it. Brexit cannot stop it. Post brexit, your streets will be just as littered with Romanian beggars as they ever were.

They only way you might vaguely address this is by plunging any brexit savings into border control and you have not enough to deal with the problem even then.

 

[Garrison]

So what? The law abiding will abide by whatever visa regulations are put in place. That's hardly any surprise.

On the other hand, these ravening hordes of Romanian criminals, in your view, will also abide by these regulations because what? They are ravening hordes of criminals, according to you. Why would they conform to whatever regulations you want in any way? It is trivially easy to penetrate the porous UK border. If the romanians criminals and pickpockets you detest so much want to go to the UK so be it. You cannot stop it. The UK cannot stop it. Brexit cannot stop it. Post brexit, your streets will be just as littered with Romanian beggars as they ever were.

They only way you might vaguely address this is by plunging any brexit savings into border control and you have not enough to deal with the problem even then.

Yeah as far as I can see Ceptimus wants tougher immigration rules to stop those people who will simply ignore those rules anyway.

And Ceptimus is now say immigration will continue, well at what level? How big a reduction in immigration are we trading away our economic future to achieve?

 

[abaddon]

Yeah as far as I can see Ceptimus wants tougher immigration rules to stop those people who will simply ignore those rules anyway.

And Ceptimus is now say immigration will continue, well at what level? How big a reduction in immigration are we trading away our economic future to achieve?

Yup. It matters not a whit what laws are passed. The criminal fraternity, by definition, don't care.

 

[McHrozni]

I'd like to use this Daily Fail article lauded by ceptimus to make a point. In the article they present an infographic about foreigners in English or Welsh jails. Let's assume everything in it is correct.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...imes-likely-jailed-Britons.html#ixzz4VRFdAPrt

It shows that non-British isles EU nationals - Romanians, Poles and Lithuanians are more likely to be involved in petty crime (theft), "violence" (as a result of alcohol consumption maybe?), and burglary.

Romanians are the first in fraud category, closely followed by two non-EU states, Albania and Nigeria. Irish lead the robbery category, followed by Romanians and Somalis. There are no EU member states in the top three of drugs category.

What Daily Fail shows is that EU nationals are, at worst, notable contributors to petty crimes, but more serious categories are dominated by non-EU nationals or from states who UK either has or would have a special relationship irrespective of EU (Ireland).

Later on there is a demographic of what percentage of nationals of any country are jailed. Vietnamese, Albanians and Algerians lead the way, Romanians are fourth. They make a big thing of EU nationals taking the first three spots of most foreigners jailed, but fail to note that there are three non-EU states that lead the way among percentages of populations imprisoned or that jailed Poles (second in absolute numbers) rank about the same as British national background value in percentages imprisoned.

Even Daily Fail taken at face value but critically analyzed doesn't show controlling EU immigration would be of a significant benefit to UK. There would be minor benefits, but the immigration control fanatic must demonstrate that benefits of marginally reducing petty theft (7 out of 8 prisoners are British nationals remember?) would outweigh the downsides this would impose.

McHrozni

 

[The Don]

Well this won't be damaging for business

Companies could be charged to hire skilled workers from the European Union after Brexit, Immigration Minister Robert Goodwill has suggested.

A £1,000 immigration "skills charge" is being brought in this April for firms recruiting workers from outside the EU.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38581873

Are they actually trying to make UK industry as inefficient and un-competitive as possible ?

 

[Guybrush Threepwood]

Well this won't be damaging for business
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38581873

Are they actually trying to make UK industry as inefficient and un-competitive as possible ?

You have to hope so, if they are then they seem to have a clear plan and are executing it well.

If it's not deliberate then the level of incompetence is terrifying.

 

[The Don]

Today's Private Eye has yet another excellent front page..

Theresa May is standing next to a swimming pool full of kids....

Kids: "Can we get out Miss ?"

May: "The time frame will be established in due course when the right objectives have been clearly defined"

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Well this won't be damaging for business



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38581873

Are they actually trying to make UK industry as inefficient and un-competitive as possible ?

This seems to be nothing to do with Brexit though. It's something that is already coming in for immigrants. It's just that EU will be treated the same as everyone else and be subject to the same stupid rules post Brexit.

I doubt £1000 will be a dealbreaker for the vast majority of these jobs. It's just more ways for the government to get paid.