I’ll conclude by giving my answer to the question that all of these studies ask, starting with the IOM report: How many deaths in the US are due to medical errors? The answer is: I don’t know! And neither do Makary and Daniels—or anyone else for sure. I do know that there might be a couple of hundred thousand possibly preventable deaths in hospitals, but that number might be much lower or higher depending on how you define “preventable.” I’m also pretty sure that medical errors, in and of themselves, are not the number three cause of deaths. That’s because medical errors rarely occur in isolation from serious medical conditions, which means it’s very to attribute most deaths to primarily a medical error. That number of 250,000 almost certainly includes a lot of deaths that were not primarily due to medical error, given that that’s 9% of all deaths every year.
But it’s even more than that. As I mentioned above, According to the CDC, of the 2.6 million deaths that occur every year in the U.S., 715,000 occur in hospitals, which means that, if Makary’s estimates are correct, 35% of all hospital deaths are due to medical errors. On its face, such a claim is very hard to believe, especially if you consider that, of those who died in a hospital, 75% were age 65 and over, and 27% were age 85 and over. That’s a lot of people prone to dying because they are old and ill, regardless of how good their care was. Add to that the fact that between 2000 and 2010, hospital deaths decreased 8% even though the number of hospitalizations increased 11%, and Makary’s numbers become less and less credible.