Will Russia invade Poland?

Will Russia invade Poland?

  • Very likely scenario

    Votes: 2 3.0%

  • Somehow likely

    Votes: 1 1.5%

  • 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Unlikely

    Votes: 6 9.1%

  • Very unlikely

    Votes: 31 47.0%

  • Zero chances

    Votes: 26 39.4%
  • Total voters
    66
The Great Zaganza said:
Russia's multi-level informal warfare system is capable of engineering a scenario in which it can claim that the NATO partner attacked it.
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There's also the Sudetan ploy - claim that Russian nationals are being oppressed and need protection. Which is effectively what they've done in Ukraine.

If Trump accepts that pretext, he will not be bound by the NATO pact to assist.
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Technically, I suppose not.
 
I checked Google News and found that Poland had some strong windstorms, a big protest over an abortion ban and the Polish military isn't going to buy Airbus helicopters. If this were likely, I would think it would beat the weather and helicopter sales.
 
I voted zero because I can't think of a scenario where that happens and the world doesn't end.
 
Loss Leader said:
I voted zero because I can't think of a scenario where that happens and the world doesn't end.
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Really? No scenario where the United States president decides that it's better to let Russia have Poland than to end the world?

Hypothetically, do you think Barack Obama would choose to end the world over Poland?
 
Does Russia have an redeeming qualities? I can't think of any. I know they used to have some of the best minds in the world and contributed greatly to science. But now? As far as I can see it tries to stick it's nose in just about any issue with it's goal to destabilize. At least China provides the world with cheap goods and their people contribute to science and technology. Even the most ****** parts of China stem from following Russia into Communism. Just an awful country overall.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Russia's multi-level informal warfare system is capable of engineering a scenario in which it can claim that the NATO partner attacked it. If Trump accepts that pretext, he will not be bound by the NATO pact to assist.
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This isn't 1939, and Russia has a reputation for lying about such things. I sincerely doubt anyone outside of Russia would believe them. It's a pretty big "if" there.

Besides, it's not like European part of NATO is exactly defenseless, or that Russian army has a particularly effective war machine. They struggled mightily with a fund starved and untrained army of Ukraine. There are at least six European NATO members who are individually stronger than that, and at another ten whose combined strength is greater than that.

McHrozni
 
McHrozni said:
This isn't 1939, and Russia has a reputation for lying about such things. I sincerely doubt anyone outside of Russia would believe them. It's a pretty big "if" there.

Besides, it's not like European part of NATO is exactly defenseless, or that Russian army has a particularly effective war machine. They struggled mightily with a fund starved and untrained army of Ukraine. There are at least six European NATO members who are individually stronger than that, and at another ten whose combined strength is greater than that.

McHrozni
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I agree that this wouldn't work for Poland; but it might for the Baltic States: If Russia manages to invade and occupy within a week (easily possible), then NATO members might think very long and hard whether they would invoke the Pact or accept the pretenses, especially if domestic (engineered) opinion is on Russia's side.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
I agree that this wouldn't work for Poland; but it might for the Baltic States: If Russia manages to invade and occupy within a week (easily possible), then NATO members might think very long and hard whether they would invoke the Pact or accept the pretenses, especially if domestic (engineered) opinion is on Russia's side.
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Yes, that is a real concern. Poland is a complete no-go, but Baltic states are another matter altogether. They're small, have substantial Russian minorities and are strategically vital for Russia to have any hope of competing with NATO in Baltic, plus Estonian border is less than 200 km from St.Petersburg, making it doubly strategically important.

All of this could be resolved in a much more cost-effecient way, called mutual cooperation and peace, but this is incompatible with Russian insistence on being government by an unstable dictatorship.

McHrozni
 
ponderingturtle said:
But a Putin-Trump pact might well make that a workable proposition. Trump doesn't care about NATO allies.
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I think that Trump signng over Eastern Europe to Putin would result in the worst revolt among members of his own party that a President would ever see.I could see a bipartisan vote to void the pact.
 
Giz said:
Have you met Jeremy Corbyn?
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No, but politicians have been known to lie about what they believe in order to secure their comfortable no-work jobs and hefty paychecks.

Case in point: just about all Brexit leaders.

McHrozni
 
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