• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Will Russia invade Poland?

Will Russia invade Poland?

  • Very likely scenario

    Votes: 2 3.0%

  • Somehow likely

    Votes: 1 1.5%

  • 50%

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Unlikely

    Votes: 6 9.1%

  • Very unlikely

    Votes: 31 47.0%

  • Zero chances

    Votes: 26 39.4%
  • Total voters
    66
Pigs will fly before that happens again.

Pork wings sound unusually tasty :)

McHrozni
 
Extremely unlikely. Closer to 0% than 1% chance. Nothing is impossible, but this is highly unlikely in the short or medium term.

In the very long term, who knows.
 
Not going to happen.

Poland wasn't a very stable member of the Warsaw pact to start with, what with religion and all, and it will not go back peacefully, what with nationalism and religion and whatnot.

Unless we get a Russia leader as shrewd as Putin but way more insane, he will realize that Poland just isn't worth the trouble. It will be enough to put it into a position where it can't go against Russia interests in any meaningful way.
 
There are plenty of other countries much more likely to be invaded (or otherwise taken over) than Poland. Wouldn't it be more interesting to ask about Ukraine, Bulgaria, the Baltic states, Finland and most of the ---stan countries before Poland?
 
If Russia invaded Poland it wiuld be WW3.They would be invading Nato.
 
Tolls said:
I was going to ask, what timescales are we talking about...
:)
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'll just say not within my lifetime. Probably not within anyone here's lifetime.

ETA: the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) are a more interesting question.
 
Last edited:
On a practical note, how would they do it? Russia does not share borders with Poland but the enclave of Königsberg Kaliningrad. Gathering an invasion force there would not go unnoticed. The other option would be to go through the Baltic States, Belarus, and/Ukraine but this would probably make things even more difficult.

Furthermore Russia got its share of issues with Poland after WW II and before WW II. I just wonder why they would think to start this again.
 
Degeneve said:
On a practical note, how would they do it? Russia does not share borders with Poland but the enclave of Königsberg Kaliningrad. Gathering an invasion force there would not go unnoticed. The other option would be to go through the Baltic States, Belarus, and/Ukraine but this would probably make things even more difficult.
Click to expand...

Going through Belarus might be workable, if Lukashenko is replaced by an even more pro-Russian dictator first. An actual invasion through Belarus has it's own share of logistical problems however.

Furthermore Russia got its share of issues with Poland after WW II and before WW II. I just wonder why they would think to start this again.
Click to expand...

The same reason they've invaded Georgia and Ukraine and are currently scaring their people a nuclear war is right around the corner: to solidify popular support for the regime, to distract people from the abysmal state of economy and disorder in the nation, to be able to remove viable opposition figures as traitors, to justify even less social and medical spending, to justify further militarization of society, to justify greater control over media and education and so on.

Poland is too tough a nut to crack though. They're too large, too powerful and too wealthy. It might be hard to imagine, but Russia only has an economy about 10% larger than Poland does, and Poland has far better short, medium and long term forecast on that front.

The Baltic states are another question altogether.

McHrozni
 
Last edited:
Argumemnon said:
If the US refuses to enforce the NATO article, it might just lead to the alliance's dissolution.

Otherwise, zero chance of Putin invading a NATO member.
Click to expand...

That's one of reasons why Trump is outright dangerous for US. He doesn't need to refuse to enforce the article 5, all he needs to do is to make Putler think he will do so, and we might have a war on our hands.

Then again, that could be the plan in the first place. Russian armed forces are more than matched by merely the European part of NATO, and they would conceivably be backed by non-NATO members of the EU. US forces outmatch them easily. Getting their asses kicked within a spitting distance of their dear leaders' birthplace could result in some interesting results in Russia.

I'd rather stick with something more boring though. I'm not prepared to go extinct just yet :)

McHrozni
 
Russia's multi-level informal warfare system is capable of engineering a scenario in which it can claim that the NATO partner attacked it. If Trump accepts that pretext, he will not be bound by the NATO pact to assist.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Russia's multi-level informal warfare system is capable of engineering a scenario in which it can claim that the NATO partner attacked it. If Trump accepts that pretext, he will not be bound by the NATO pact to assist.
Click to expand...

The traditional way is to stage a coup and have the new government quit NATO and "invite" the Russians* in. The beauty of that tradition is that the coup does not need to be initially successful, just sow enough confusion to keep the armed forces from functioning properly until "facts on the ground" are established.

That said, I doubt Russia would invade Poland. Modern Russia is much more focused on Russian ethnicity than the USSR was. They'll clip off areas that have Russian majorities, but I doubt they want to rule over rebellious non-Russians any more (except within Russia proper). The Baltic nations have large ethnic Russian populations and face some risk from this.


*The Nazis also used this method.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom