Trump could win presidency: Yes or No?

[Foolmewunz]

The odd thing is, it most likely will not hurt him! We shall see...

I think it's already hurting him. My read on the situation, which could be totally wrong, is that there's a ceiling in there for Trump and he's hit it. I feel that the last holdouts who were likely to switch to Trump came over with the OMG She's Dying nonsense. And some of that support is soft.

If I'm right, Trump's peaking at 40% of the vote and that won't get him elected. (Ignore the 2-way polls - why we even still have them is beyond me.) The daily Trump Steals Money From Salvation Army Bucket headlines are going to keep him running and hiding from the press and that'll just bring out more of them. And who knows how damaging the latest Playing Footsie With Russia is going to be. He had to dump Paulie The Weasel, but he's still kept his Russian connection hiding in the background.

More important is that Hillary's holding on and apparently stable in the swing states she needs, which already put her over 270, but she's also closing on his temporary lead in two biggies - OH and FL. And he's done as much as possible to shoot himself in the face (he ran out of feet long ago) in those states, particularly OH.

 

[Dog Town]

I think it's already hurting him.

Really? Having spent less, and gained? Please...
It saddens me none the less!

 

[The Atheist]

I think it's already hurting him.

Something certainly is - his charge towards even footing with Hillary appears to have blown up and the gap looks like it'll be back in the 4-5% range in the next week or so.

[some] People finally starting to realise the guy's just a cheap crook?

 

[Dog Town]

Something certainly is - his charge towards even footing with Hillary appears to have blown up and the gap looks like it'll be back in the 4-5% range in the next week or so.

[some] People finally starting to realise the guy's just a cheap crook?

Tell me, Cruz, Rubio, and Bush didn't feel the same way! We are in uncharted political territory! If I prayed, I would 24/7/365! I do not!

 

[Dog Town]

What scares me even more! The polls may be skewed. By the shamed for wanting TRUMP! That show up and vote for his mange! Terrifies me!

 

[Dog Town]

Once again this is why Bernie was the best option! I know many think I'm fighting a lost battle. Hear me out! He would have the base plus his overly motivated crew, new to voting( many who feel now disenfranchised by the Dems)! HRC excites no one, but the Republicans who have hated her for decades! Not the ones trying to get elected, and ride imaginary coattails! Betting on the wrong horse is a political prize!

 

[Foolmewunz]

What scares me even more! The polls may be skewed. By the shamed for wanting TRUMP! That show up and vote for his mange! Terrifies me!

All this is street-corner wisdom. There is no such "hidden" or "shame" vote. In repeated studies, Trump supporters are actually more likely to answer polls in his favor but then not follow through and vote.

Further, you need to follow the trends in the polls. Trump stopped gaining about ten days ago. He's gone from within a fraction of a point to trailing by 2.3 in the four-way and by 3 in the two-way. Anyone following the arc, as TA apparently was, would've thought he'd be ahead by 5 heading into the debates.

I think he's flattened out. The cumulative total of all the trash in Aug/Sep has peaked (or bottomed) and starting to reverse.

 

[Dog Town]

All this is street-corner wisdom. There is no such "hidden" or "shame" vote. In repeated studies, Trump supporters are actually more likely to answer polls in his favor but then not follow through and vote.

Further, you need to follow the trends in the polls. Trump stopped gaining about ten days ago. He's gone from within a fraction of a point to trailing by 2.3 in the four-way and by 3 in the two-way. Anyone following the arc, as TA apparently was, would've thought he'd be ahead by 5 heading into the debates.

I think he's flattened out. The cumulative total of all the trash in Aug/Sep has peaked (or bottomed) and starting to reverse.

Once again! The press, public(overall), and Republican leaders felt the same false sense! Have you paid no attention? History is being written! Scares the HELL out of me! I wish I had your false sense...

 

[Dog Town]

All this is street-corner wisdom. There is no such "hidden" or "shame" vote.

This is not our fathers election cycle, or anyone we have witnessed! Please, pay attention!

 

[Dog Town]

Night...night! Another day working I Heart music festival in hours. Need a few winks of shuteye!

 

[Foolmewunz]

This is not our fathers election cycle, or anyone we have witnessed! Please, pay attention!

I'm arguing the science and you're arguing the tradition. You're saying that from past elections we know about the shame vote. I'm saying this is a different world. People who are ashamed of Trump are against Trump. His supporters are rabid Trumpistas and proud of it. They aren't lying to pollsters, saying they're for Clinton but secretly going to support Trump.

As I said, it was shown that a lot of 'em are lazy blusterers and will say they're Trumpies but don't actually show up to vote. Some of 'em, I believe, were saying they were positively voting for Agent Orange but weren't even registered. "Woooo! Go Trump!" is fun to say, but if they've got back-to-back episodes of The Voice, they could just skip the election.

 

[CapelDodger]

This is not our fathers election cycle, or anyone we have witnessed! Please, pay attention!

Us old dogs gotta learn some new tricks.

Or to put it another way, the world is on a cusp.

 

[aleCcowaN]

Latest battleground states polls:

Georgia: Trump 44%, Clinton 38% / Trump 47%, Clinton 43% (2 different pollsters)

If there's something interesting to highlight is that, in Georgia, the Republican candidate for the Senate is 21% ahead his Democratic opponent. I'm not clear whether Trump is indeed helping or damaging the Republican majority in the Senate.

 

[Tero]

No Florida, no presidency!

 

[aleCcowaN]

No Florida, no presidency!

So far it's no presidency in spite of Florida.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

So far it's no presidency in spite of Florida.

I ignore Florida polling since I fully expect the Republicans to cheat their way to victory there ... again.

 

[Noztradamus]

It's a Cheney reference. Made me smile.

But it only worked for Cheney because he shot a lawyer in the face

 

[Puppycow]

Just one of thousands of lies told by Trump during this campaign, but there's proof for this one:

Donald Trump Either Lied to the Republicans or Broke the Law (Exclusive)

Remember back when Jeb! was still in the race and there was a debate (this was the 2nd Republican debate over a year ago now) where there was an exchange between Bush and Trump. Here's that exchange:

"The one guy that had some special interests that I know of that tried to get me to change my views on something—that was generous and gave me money—was Donald Trump,” Bush said. “He wanted casino gambling in Florida."

Trump interrupted Bush:

Trump: I didn’t—

Bush: Yes, you did.

Trump: Totally false.

Bush: You wanted it, and you didn’t get it, because I was opposed to—

Trump: I would have gotten it.

Bush: Casino gambling before—

Trump: I promise, I would have gotten it.

Bush: During and after. I’m not going to be bought by anybody.

Trump: I promise, if I wanted it, I would have gotten it.

Bush: No way. Believe me.

Trump: I know my people.

Bush: Not even possible.

Trump: I know my people.

So Trump says that allegation that he tried to get Bush to soften up his opposition to gambling was "totally false". So Newsweek found this deposition Trump gave back in 2007 in connection with a lawsuit Trump filed against someone else. Here's what he said in that deposition:

A lawyer asked Trump, “Did you yourself do anything to obtain any of the details with respect to the Florida gaming environment, what approvals were needed and so forth?”

Trump: A little bit.

Lawyer: What did you do?

Trump: I actually spoke with Governor-elect Bush; I had a big fundraiser for Governor-elect Bush…and I think it was his most successful fundraiser, the most successful that he had had up until that point, that was in Trump Tower in New York on Fifth Avenue.

Lawyer: When was that?

Trump: Sometime prior to his election.

Lawyer: You knew that Governor Bush, Jeb Bush at that time, was opposed to expansion of gaming in Florida, didn't you?

Trump: I thought that he could be convinced otherwise.

Lawyer: But you didn't change his mind about his anti-gaming stance, did you?

Trump: Well, I never really had that much of an opportunity because Fields resigned, telling me you could never get what we wanted done, only to do it for another company.

Well it's too late for Jeb! but here we have incontrovertible proof that Trump straight-up lied in that debate (or committed perjury, but Occam's razor is that he lied at the debate).

I'm sure this story will have no effect whatsoever on the race, and his supporters will care not one whit, but it should be noted for the record.

 

[Puppycow]

(mistake)

 

[The Great Zaganza]

The sentiment that businessmen don't need to be held to the same standard as politicians is understandable: lower risks and greater flexibility is what makes commerce possible. What we applaud in an entrepreneur we would consider reckless in a person in charge of our country.

But the one question that no Trump supporter has been able to answer for me is why they believe that Trump, a man who's been dealing all his life, can suddenly become a responsible politician.