Brexit: Now What? Part II

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Post Brexit, Honda would have no automotive plants in the EU. I doubt that will be allowed to stand.

Is the Belgium plant gone now?

I wouldn't be surprised to see something in Eastern Europe appearing at some point. It would certainly help explain why Honda seem committed to the UK in the near term if they don't have other options.

Nissan could presumably use Renault plants if they wanted to? Not sure about Toyota think they also have French plants but not certain they could move production to them.

Most analysts seem to think that it will be difficult to maintain Japanese car production in the UK post-Brexit but that it will take a long time for that play out. Of course again these are highly political decisions and it wouldn't be beyond reason to think that a deal could be struck to keep them here as I doubt that they would want the hassle of moving if it can be avoided.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

This is the real worry and I just don't believe that some of the people voting for Brexit had any idea that it might cause them to be unemployed or considerably worse off. The argument that the short and medium term effects of Brexit don't matter only holds until you cannot pay your mortgage or you have to find the money to buy expensive Health insurance if you are a UK citizen in the EU because your employer or you do not have enough money in the budget to cover it. The short and medium term effects will cause real problems for lots of UK families both resident in the UK and in the EU.

The majority of people who voted for Brexit will be dead in thirty years time. I wonder what they were voting for then?

 

[MCel58]

The majority of people who voted for Brexit will be dead in thirty years time. I wonder what they were voting for then?

At a guess, the lies of the leave campaign, a degree of xenophobia and some sort of belief that the world has not become more global, and that Britain can return to being an Empire?

 

[abaddon]

Is the Belgium plant gone now?

I wouldn't be surprised to see something in Eastern Europe appearing at some point. It would certainly help explain why Honda seem committed to the UK in the near term if they don't have other options.

Nissan could presumably use Renault plants if they wanted to? Not sure about Toyota think they also have French plants but not certain they could move production to them.

Most analysts seem to think that it will be difficult to maintain Japanese car production in the UK post-Brexit but that it will take a long time for that play out. Of course again these are highly political decisions and it wouldn't be beyond reason to think that a deal could be struck to keep them here as I doubt that they would want the hassle of moving if it can be avoided.

Belgium is logistics/R&D only now, I believe, no assembly. Both Toyota and Nissan have other EU assets, so it would be relatively easy to retool those at the time of the next model revisions and abandon the UK plants. Honda don't have that luxury, they would be starting from scratch. Somewhere like Slovakia would do nicely. Peugeot moved the Ryton operation there on foot of some tasty incentives. Jaguar Land Rover is planning on a plant there too by 2018.

 

[catsmate]

The majority of people who voted for Brexit will be dead in thirty years time. I wonder what they were voting for then?

The Imperial Delusion.

 

[ceptimus]

Responding to Klimax's post...

I was certainly not the first person to mention Schengen. The first time I used the word was in replying to your post, and I copied your spelling. I don't know where you copied it from (if anywhere).

Hungary built its anti-immigration fence to stop NON-EU people.

If your country is an EU-member, then whether or not it is part of Schengen, it is not allowed to stop the free movement of EU citizens at its borders. There are some minor exceptions for stopping criminals and suspected terrorists, and sometimes transitory arrangements when a country first joins the EU.

Let me try to make it clearer for you.

Obviously it's not about to happen, but if the entire population of, say, Poland decided to move to Britain then at the moment our border police would not have the right to stop them entering. Our British government can't pass any new laws to stop such movement of EU citizens as this is against EU law which trumps our own British law.

Once we've left the EU then the British Parliament could pass legislation that would restrict the movement of foreigners into Britain (though of course they may not chose to do so). That is the sense in which Britain leaving the EU allows Britain to regain control of its borders.

 

[Airfix]

Responding to Klimax's post...

I was certainly not the first person to mention Schengen. The first time I used the word was in replying to your post, and I copied your spelling. I don't know where you copied it from (if anywhere).

Hungary built its anti-immigration fence to stop NON-EU people.

If your country is an EU-member, then whether or not it is part of Schengen, it is not allowed to stop the free movement of EU citizens at its borders. There are some minor exceptions for stopping criminals and suspected terrorists, and sometimes transitory arrangements when a country first joins the EU.

Let me try to make it clearer for you.

Obviously it's not about to happen, but if the entire population of, say, Poland decided to move to Britain then at the moment our border police would not have the right to stop them entering. Our British government can't pass any new laws to stop such movement of EU citizens as this is against EU law which trumps our own British law.

Once we've left the EU then the British Parliament could pass legislation that would restrict the movement of foreigners into Britain (though of course they may not chose to do so). That is the sense in which Britain leaving the EU allows Britain to regain control of its borders.

Well said.

 

[ceptimus]

So no reply to those who pointed out you are completely wrong about the " corrupt, undemocratic, lumbering" EU or that your claims on tariffs are wrong?

What claims on tariffs are you claiming that I made?

I did answer the points about the corrupt, undemocratic, lumbering... Perhaps you missed my response.

 

[catsmate]

What claims on tariffs are you claiming that I made?

That's where our negotiators should focus: "Okay, we'll agree to x% tariffs on goods if you agree to y% tariffs on services..."

The UK's disconnection from the EU is about far more.

I did answer the points about the corrupt, undemocratic, lumbering...

No, you didn't.

 

[ceptimus]

Obviously the disconnection involves other things. That's why I used the word focus. When you focus on one topic in a negotiation that doesn't mean you completely ignore all other topics.

I did answer. If you didn't like my answer that's fine. If you have specific questions about my answers then I'll try to answer those questions.

 

[Airfix]

The UK's disconnection from the EU is about far more.

Yes, but we only needed the EU for trade.
The incessant federalism was a pain.

 

[Lothian]

Once we've left the EU then the British Parliament could pass legislation that would restrict the movement of foreigners into Britain (though of course they may not chose to do so). That is the sense in which Britain leaving the EU allows Britain to regain control of its borders.

So a brexited UK can take control of its borders in the same way as it could imprison all left handed people. That is it could in theory do something that in practice would cause huge problems, not to mention the expense.

 

[Lothian]

Yes, but we only needed the EU for trade.
The incessant federalism was a pain.

As the new leader of UKIP made clear, the vote for brexit was a vote for leaving the single market. Given UKIP's influence on the vote I think we have to say goodbye to tariff free trade between the EU and the UK. No?

 

[ceptimus]

So a brexited UK can take control of its borders in the same way as it could imprison all left handed people. That is it could in theory do something that in practice would cause huge problems, not to mention the expense.

Well by that (rather silly) argument, the EU could decide to imprison all right handed people...

If the British government decides to enact stupid laws we can at least vote them out of office at the next election - something that British people alone can't do with the EU rulers.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Well by that (rather silly) argument, the EU could decide to imprison all right handed people...

Only if the UK government agreed to it.

As for voting out the government..I've been trying it for decades sadly it doesn't work.

 

[MCel58]

Yes, but we only needed the EU for trade.
The incessant federalism was a pain.

What about EU funding for research and Small and Medium Enterprise(SME) development, the co-operation between Universities, the cross learning for both companies and students, the raising of employment protection standards particularly for women and people with disabilities.
The raising of European Regional Development Funds money for large scale projects such as new railway stations, hospitals, roads, community centres, play areas and European Social Fund money to help the poorest areas in our society access employment, skills and childcare. The use of KONVER money in the 1990s to help the companies who had been involved in steel, defense and mining to get the accreditaions to join other supply chains. The projects in Northern Ireland to help with the Peace Process, Development money to help Wales, Scotland, Lancashire to improve job prospects for young people. Erasmus grants to help our students study in other countries and gain International experience. This is just a few of the things that we have used the EU for over the years. These projects have given large number of businesses in the UK support when they needed it. Do you really believe that the only thing important is trade. We live in a global world and co-operation and knowledge sharing is more important now than ever. The EU provided a framework for all of this and the UK benefitted as a result.

 

[Lothian]

Well by that (rather silly) argument, the EU could decide to imprison all right handed people...

Indeed but I didn't make the original silly argument (that the UK could take back our borders).

 

[Airfix]

What about EU funding for research and Small and Medium Enterprise(SME) development,

We fund the EU in the first place, lets cut out the middleman.

the co-operation between Universities

There are countries in Erasmus Plus who are not members of the EU.

Membership is not necessary for participation.

The raising of European Regional Development Funds money for large scale projects such as new railway stations, hospitals, roads, community centres, play areas and European Social Fund money to help the poorest areas in our society access employment, skills and childcare.

As mentioned before, we fund the EU.
Lets directly invest without middleman instead.

The use of KONVER money in the 1990s to help the companies who had been involved in steel, defense and mining to get the accreditaions to join other supply chains.

Again direct funding is the answer.

[quote[The projects in Northern Ireland to help with the Peace Process [/quote]
Again, it was unnecessary for the EU to be involved. Direct work by UK and Irish governments could have achieved the same.

All we need from the EU is trade. And you don't have to be a member to trade.

 

[ddt]

There are countries in Erasmus Plus who are not members of the EU.

You mean like Switzerland, which has been put on hold because of their anti-immigration referendum?

Again, it was unnecessary for the EU to be involved. Direct work by UK and Irish governments could have achieved the same.

Given the historical biases of both governments and the distrust that is harboured by many in NI against one (or both) of them, I'd say the involvement of a neutral third party is definitely a bonus.

 

[Airfix]

You mean like Switzerland, which has been put on hold because of their anti-immigration referendum?

You mean their control immigration referendum.
Their referendum was not a vote on ending immigration it was a vote on controls, so do not misrepresent it.

Given the historical biases of both governments and the distrust that is harboured by many in NI against one (or both) of them, I'd say the involvement of a neutral third party is definitely a bonus.

There was already a neutral third party in the form of Bill Clinton.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Northern_Ireland_Troubles_and_peace_process#1995