Brexit: Now What? Part II

[ceptimus]

From someone who cannot spell Schengen this is hilarious.

I copied the spelling of Schengen from Klimax's post that I was replying to. So if you want to go all spelling Nazi, you should take it up with him or her.

 

[The Don]

That's where our negotiators should focus: "Okay, we'll agree to x% tariffs on goods if you agree to y% tariffs on services..."

It's not just a matter of tariffs.

For example, one of the reasons why my business can sell so easily into the EU is that we don't have to demonstrate that another EU citizen can do the job. If we're not in the EEA (for which free movement would doubtless be a pre-requisite) then we won't be able to continue to do this.

 

[The Don]

You can stress it as hard and as often as you like.

Brexit is about leaving a corrupt, undemocratic, lumbering organisation.

I think you need to demonstrate that it's more undemocratic (it isn't), more lumbering (who knows) than the UK government.

It's about not having to pay membership fees to that organisation and regaining control of our borders and our law-making system.

Maybe for you it is. For the majority it was keeping immigrants out and/or £350m a week more for the NHS.

 

[The Don]

I think there are too many people here already.

Sure, Brexit's not about keeping foreigners out

 

[The Don]

I copied the spelling of Schengen from Klimax's post that I was replying to. So if you want to go all spelling Nazi, you should take it up with him or her.

Typical Brexit supporter, something goes wrong and you blame someone from the EU

 

[McHrozni]

That's where our negotiators should focus: "Okay, we'll agree to x% tariffs on goods if you agree to y% tariffs on services..."

Edited by kmortis: 

Removed to comply with Rule 12

Here:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36630606

To dumb it up, basically the UK has two choices if it wants to quit the EU:
1. Enter EEA completely as a non-member or
2. Let the financial services move away from London and into other centers (Paris, Frankfurt, Dublin and Amsterdam are usually mentioned as possibilities)

That's up to 10% of British GDP that would leave, never to return. It would make it a massive uphill struggle to make Brexit anything but a catastrophe if that happened.

Point 1 is worse than simply staying in EU by far.

So yeah, good luck with negotiations. You're going to need it.

McHrozni

 

[Airfix]

Honda are investing £200m at their Swindon plant and are planning to broaden the UK factory's export markets beyond Europe.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...a-Brexit-boost-Honda-makes-UK-global-hub.html

 

[The Don]

Honda are investing £200m at their Swindon plant and are planning to broaden the UK factory's export markets beyond Europe.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...a-Brexit-boost-Honda-makes-UK-global-hub.html

The Daily Mail certainly has put a very pro-Brexit spin on the news.

To put some context around this news. The investment was announced in March 2015, over a year before the Brexit referendum. The investment relates to making the new Honda Civic at the Swindon plant. Bear in mind that Honda typically has a 4-5 year cycle on new models so most of the production of the new Civic will take place while the UK is still in the EU.

The Daily Mail may insist that this is a ringing endorsement of Brexit - Honda themselves have said nothing of the sort.

 

[Airfix]

It may be paid for by DMG media, but thisismoney.co.uk is not the same site as the Daily Mail.

Honda knew before the referendum that there *could* be a British departure from the European Union.
They still invested and have no plans to leave.
http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2016-09-16/swindon-moves-up-a-gear-as-honda-unveils-new-car/

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It may be paid for by DMG media, but thisismoney.co.uk is not the same site as the Daily Mail.

Honda knew before the referendum that there *could* be a British departure from the European Union.
They still invested and have no plans to leave.
http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2016-09-16/swindon-moves-up-a-gear-as-honda-unveils-new-car/

They say they have no plans to leave, but they are unlikely to come out and say 'yes, we are thinking about leaving' are they?

However, this is good (but old) news anyway. The UK MD of Honda himself said:

'‘What the consequences might be two or three years down the line, we just don’t know yet.'

 

[Airfix]

It's more the consequences ten or twenty or thirty years down the line which are important. Two or three years is nothing to worry about.

 

[McHrozni]

It's more the consequences ten or twenty or thirty years down the line which are important. Two or three years is nothing to worry about.

The point is this investment will only need to work for a few years anyway. UK will be a member of the EU for most of that time in any case.

McHrozni

 

[ceptimus]

I think you need to demonstrate that it's more undemocratic (it isn't), more lumbering (who knows) than the UK government.

Irrelevant. I agree they are both undemocratic and lumbering, but we got the chance to leave one of them - and the majority of voters decided that it was a good idea.

Just because you have to be ruled by at least one crappy layer of rulers shouldn't mean that you want to sign up for the hassle and cost of additional crappy layers.

 

[abaddon]

They say they have no plans to leave, but they are unlikely to come out and say 'yes, we are thinking about leaving' are they?

However, this is good (but old) news anyway. The UK MD of Honda himself said:

'‘What the consequences might be two or three years down the line, we just don’t know yet.'

Post Brexit, Honda would have no automotive plants in the EU. I doubt that will be allowed to stand.

 

[The Don]

It may be paid for by DMG media, but thisismoney.co.uk is not the same site as the Daily Mail.

It's just the "Money" section of the Daily Mail - same editorial stance, same journalists:

City & Finance: City & Finance is the business part of the Daily Mail, and the Financial Mail is the business paper free with the Mail on Sunday. City & Finance features City News and the results from the London Stock Exchange, and also has its own website called This is Money

 

[The Don]

Irrelevant.

I disagree.

If EU membership makes the UK more democratic and or less lumbering then leaving it is retrograde step and very relevant indeed.

 

[The Don]

It's more the consequences ten or twenty or thirty years down the line which are important. Two or three years is nothing to worry about.

Speak for yourself. If I have to lay off the majority of my employees as a result of Brexit then that's far more important to worry about for me, and them, and their families than whatever state the UK economy may be in 20-30 years time - not least because there wouldn't be a non-Brexit control to compare it to.

 

[Klimax]

Hmmm. You might want to educate yourself about what control EU member countries have over their borders before you make any further posts.

So no evidence about counties no longer having control of borders. So why could Hungary create that Anti-immigration fence? Were they ordered to by Germens or was it their own initiative. Hint: Quite few countries didn't like their actions, et none even tried to stop them. As for EU work force immigration, borders are irrelevant. Great Britain has full control of borders as it is not in any borderless agreement yet we could still enter legally.

Frankly, you have no business lecturing me on my own advice. And better start to learning and/or posting evidence. So far your track record is very poor.

Also had you already educated yourself about EU institutions or you are steadfastly refusing to exit ignorance?

I copied the spelling of Schengen from Klimax's post that I was replying to. So if you want to go all spelling Nazi, you should take it up with him or her.

I wouldn't be so sure who posted incorrect spelling. I used your own when making last reply. (Spellcheck broke somehow so it didn't catch misspelling)

 

[Lothian]

Irrelevant. I agree they are both undemocratic and lumbering, but we got the chance to leave one of them - and the majority of voters decided that it was a good idea.

Just because you have to be ruled by at least one crappy layer of rulers shouldn't mean that you want to sign up for the hassle and cost of additional crappy layers.

I agree there are crappy layer of rules at every level. I don't agree that each layer represents a hassle and cost.
The EU layer has reduced the hassle from that when each country had their own rules and regulations. Harmonisation has saved a lot of hassle.
Neither do I think there is a net cost at the EU level as opposed to the costs that would be needed otherwise. Inefficient as it may be is the EU really over 27 times as inefficient as each country. Can the words "economy", "of" and "scale" be joined together somehow?

 

[MCel58]

Speak for yourself. If I have to lay off the majority of my employees as a result of Brexit then that's far more important to worry about for me, and them, and their families than whatever state the UK economy may be in 20-30 years time - not least because there wouldn't be a non-Brexit control to compare it to.

This is the real worry and I just don't believe that some of the people voting for Brexit had any idea that it might cause them to be unemployed or considerably worse off. The argument that the short and medium term effects of Brexit don't matter only holds until you cannot pay your mortgage or you have to find the money to buy expensive Health insurance if you are a UK citizen in the EU because your employer or you do not have enough money in the budget to cover it. The short and medium term effects will cause real problems for lots of UK families both resident in the UK and in the EU.