Trump runs for POTUS / Trumped Up! Part V

[CapelDodger]

I hate to say this since it is considered film blasphemy but I really can't stand Kubrick with the exception of Spartacus and I've never seen Dr. Strangelove, but my guess is that I should. I just couldn't stand 2001, Clockwork Orange, Full Metal Jacket, The Shining, Eyes Wide Shut so much. But as a cinephile, there are some movies you're supposed to see including every Kubrick movie.

Dr Strangelove is worth seeing: not even Kubrick could smother that material.

 

[CapelDodger]

Think of it less as a Kubrick and more a Peter Seller's movie

 

[pgwenthold]

Of course they're not. Less than 5 percent of the fortune 500 in the last 20 years have been in bankruptcy. Trump's suggestion that bankruptcy shows how smart of businessman he is is absurd. And it's utterly moronic for people to fall for that line of bs.

And were it anyone but the Republican nominee for pres, it would be laughable even to the those who now support him.

But when the Republican nominee for President does it, it must be good.

 

[acbytesla]

Think of it less as a Kubrick and more a Peter Seller's movie

That certainly makes it more attractive.

It supposed to be a comedy or at least a satire. I've seen clips that seem funny like Slim Pickens riding a bomb as it falls. It just seems bizarre to make a joke out of nuclear war...but that I guess is the point.

 

[acbytesla]

And were it anyone but the Republican nominee for pres, it would be laughable even to the those who now support him.

But when the Republican nominee for President does it, it must be good.

WTF is wrong with these people? Seriously. Everybody including them knows it's crap and they're devouring it like it's Mother's apple pie.

 

[NoahFence]

WTF is wrong with these people? Seriously. Everybody including them knows it's crap and they're devouring it like it's Mother's apple pie.

Hillary Derangement Syndrome, and an extreme aversion to facts.

 

[acbytesla]

God did good business when he created Scots.


Finishing with a Glasgow kiss-off:

In your guts, you know he's nuts"

I love this line.

 

[sunmaster14]

Think of it less as a Kubrick and more a Peter Seller's movie

Right. He played 3 major characters, and he was actually supposed to play 4 (he was slated to play Major Kong).

 

[Dave Rogers]

Trump likes Torpedo boat captains who don't have their boat sunk.

It could, I think, rather more reasonably be argued that a torpedo boat captain who's never had a boat sunk lacks the required risk-taking ability than that a businessman who's never been declared bankrupt lacks the required risk-taking ability.

Dave

 

[Frank Newgent]

Think of it less as a Kubrick and more a Peter Seller's movie

That certainly makes it more attractive.

It supposed to be a comedy or at least a satire. I've seen clips that seem funny like Slim Pickens riding a bomb as it falls. It just seems bizarre to make a joke out of nuclear war...but that I guess is the point.

Best satire ever. See for yourself.

 

[The Don]

There are many examples where the creditors took the company out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy and were not only made whole, but made a killing. Charter Communications is one example. Orange County went through a Chapter 9 bankruptcy (which is the code governing municipalities), and the creditors were made whole. It depends largely on why it went into bankruptcy. If it was a cash flow issue, or some bond convenants were breached, then Chapter 11 is usually forced by the creditors in order to protect their claims. Another example is AMBAC (a bond insurer), which went bankrupt in 2010. Its "claim" bonds are trading well over 100 cents on the dollar.

The canonical recovery value used in the credit default swap market for corporations (both US and European) is 40%. That's for senior unsecured debt. Of course, that implies that the recovery will actually be much larger than 40% because there is generally a huge risk premium to be earned in buying defaulted debt, and the recovery value is defined as the market value of the debt just after a default. Often, recovery values are much higher, sometimes exceeding 100%, which is weird but does happen.

Secured debt, by the way, is very likely to be paid back in full in general. Junior creditors are very likely not to be paid back in full. On the other hand, they are usually paid a very high interest so that they might prove to be winners overall if the bonds pay for 5-10 years.

Your claim was that it happens often - you've managed to scratch up a couple of examples - doesn't sound too often to me

I didn't actually claim that 95% of businesses end in bankruptcy. I used it as a mathematical example that if a business has a 1% chance of bankruptcy every year, which is on the low side in the US, at least as implied by the credit default swap market, then it is virtually inevitable that it will go bankrupt in the long term. This is simply a consequence of mathematics. The probability is doesn't go bankrupt in N years is 0.99^N, which is a small number for large N.

My experience is that in the real world most businesses are acquired in full or in part or are wound up in an orderly fashion. If your model predicts a 95% bankruptcy rate then it's faulty.

It is far more often that a company avoids bankruptcy by renegotiating with its creditors when it gets into a little trouble or breaches some covenants. That's because bankruptcy can be a long and expensive process. Still, one side or the other might force a bankruptcy depending on how the negotiations go. A company manager who avoids bankruptcy by conceding to the terms demanded by the creditors might actually be doing a worse job for the owners than one who enters bankruptcy. You have to look at the details.

That still does not go to support your "model" which gives the result that 95% of businesses will go bankrupt.

Once again, the 95% figure is a strawman. Regardless, Donald Trump's six bankruptcies (5 of which involved casinos, and 4 of which happened in 1992) are not unusual in the least given the number of businesses he's been involved in. Most investors have invested in companies that go bust. Usually though don't get tainted by them. It's different for Trump because he slaps his name on everything.

It's a strawman that you created

The size of, and number of Trump's bankruptcies are unusual which is why then cause comment. The nature of those bankruptcies - and other failed businesses - indicate what a poor businessman he really is. His timing is poor and he ignores advice.

 

[Jrrarglblarg]

Why don't you present it? Whereas I'm convinced that half of all businesses fail, I'm pretty sure that most of them don't declare bankruptcy.

Why don't I present what? The data I'm asserting I haven't found yet this morning?

What I'm saying is that I think sunmaster and logger are half right if you squint and look at the data through a pocket comb. I've seen stats over the years that something like 95% of new biz filings fail within 5 or 8 years; I can't remember which, and it may be I've seen the numbers for both over the years.

This doesn't mean that most businesses, even those in "competive markets," declare bankruptcy as a normal part of the business growth cycle. It means that most small business filings are by rank amateurs like me who may be experts at cupcakes or roofing but are unable to competently navigate the many hazards and skill challenges of small business operations, a totally different conversation we could have about small businesses, in another thread.

Trump is a chump.

 

[acbytesla]

It could, I think, rather more reasonably be argued that a torpedo boat captain who's never had a boat sunk lacks the required risk-taking ability than that a businessman who's never been declared bankrupt lacks the required risk-taking ability.

Dave

Isn't it wonderful to be able to play both sides at the same time? Hillary is bad for helping the earthquake ravaged and those infected with HIV in Africa and Trump is good for cheating college students and contractors as well as when he's declaring bankruptcy.

 

[acbytesla]

Why don't I present what? The data I'm asserting I haven't found yet this morning?

What I'm saying is that I think sunmaster and logger are half right if you squint and look at the data through a pocket comb. I've seen stats over the years that something like 95% of new biz filings fail within 5 or 8 years; I can't remember which, and it may be I've seen the numbers for both over the years.

This doesn't mean that most businesses, even those in "competive markets," declare bankruptcy as a normal part of the business growth cycle. It means that most small business filings are by rank amateurs like me who may be experts at cupcakes or roofing but are unable to competently navigate the many hazards and skill challenges of small business operations, a totally different conversation we could have about small businesses, in another thread.

Trump is a chump.

My apologies. I thought you said you found data.

 

[Donal]

The exact number of businesses that fail seems to be a moving target based on who you ask and how they define "fail", but most agree at least half will fail within 5 years and at least another 1/4 will fail in the next 5.

Of course, lasting those 10 years without declaring bankruptcy would be one of the ways to define a successful business. It seems, for all his bluster, Junior is at best a mediocre business man.

 

[Beelzebuddy]

The exact number of businesses that fail seems to be a moving target based on who you ask and how they define "fail", but most agree at least half will fail within 5 years and at least another 1/4 will fail in the next 5.

Of course, lasting those 10 years without declaring bankruptcy would be one of the ways to define a successful business. It seems, for all his bluster, Junior is at best a mediocre business man.

Via this, about 750,000 businesses close each year, while about 33,000 business bankruptcies were filed. So however you define "fail," actual bankruptcy is a small percentage of that.

 

[Donal]

It could, I think, rather more reasonably be argued that a torpedo boat captain who's never had a boat sunk lacks the required risk-taking ability than that a businessman who's never been declared bankrupt lacks the required risk-taking ability.

Dave

Last I checked, the Navy kind of likes its boats to stay on the water, not bellow it. Also, the ability to avoid bankruptcy while taking risks (like Steve Jobs) seems to be a much better indicator of business acumen.

And, of course, there is a huge difference between a calculated risk that doesn't pay off and simply a poor decision.

 

[varwoche]

It's not just the bankruptcies. There are plenty of other business failures this world class loser has left in his wake... Trump Airlines, Trump Steaks, Trump U, Trump Mortgage, Trump Vodka, GoTrump, etc.

DONALD TRUMP'S MANY BUSINESS FAILURES, EXPLAINED

 

[pgwenthold]

Via this, about 750,000 businesses close each year, while about 33,000 business bankruptcies were filed. So however you define "fail," actual bankruptcy is a small percentage of that.

How many bankruptcies have actual SUCCESSFUL businessmen had? Mark Cuban? Warren Buffet? Steve Wynn?

I was looking up Ted Turner, figuring he'd had something, but couldn't find anything. Turner got bought out by AOL, but no sign that he ever declared bankruptcy.

Don't we define "successful businessman" as people who have had success? By definition, bankruptcy is not a sign of a successful businessman.

 

[Segnosaur]

Trumps Latest victim: Preteen girls

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...rls-sue-trump-campaign-for-stiffing-them.html

Back in January, the Trump campaign got a dance group called "Freedom Girls" to perform at a florida rally. They were told that they couldn't be paid, but would be allowed to sell merchandise (T-shirts, CDs, etc.) at the rally to recoup their costs. So they showed up, but were prevented from bringing their stuff into the hall. (For some strange reason they decided to perform anyways.)

They were later scheduled to appear at a second rally, but on the way there (after paying for their own air fair) they were told that their appearance was cancelled.

So now, the group is suing the Trump campaign to cover lost costs.

I'm kind of split on this.

On one hand, its yet another example of how Trump and his people have engaged in rather shady dealings.

On the other hand, these people were performing at a Trump rally. Forget about the fact that they would be performing in front of an audience with a significant number of racists and other bigots in order to get an incompetent business man elected. They (or their manager) should have known Trump had a habit of screwing people. (See: Trump University.) Its even part of his business plan.

Its kind of like a black person going to a Trump rally and being surprised at all the racists. Its Trump.. what do you expect to encounter?