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Trump runs for POTUS / Trumped Up! Part IV

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The Don said:
I really do think that people who assume that Hillary will cruise to victory need to be very careful. The gradual rebound in Trump's numbers and corresponding improvement in his fivethirtyeight chances of winning are, IMO, indicative that there are a lot of people out there looking for reasons not to vote for Hillary and who are therefore willing to switch (back) to Trump if only he'd stop saying ridiculous things.
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I have worried about that. However, I am more confident than ever. You see, I don't think that Trump can just run away from who he has been for 40 years by trying to act normal for a month. The exact same things that Trump has been saying that appealed to a majority of Republican primary voters alienated a majority of general election voters. Trump has received 2 billion dollars of free media over 14 months that branded him. You can't just in 2 months make every one now change their minds. It's not going to happen.

Both of these candidates have been in the public eye for the better part of 25 years. The public knows them both. People will not be changing their minds. Trump's only hope really is to convince pretty much all the undecided voters to vote for Trump and the truth is there are few of them.

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, 90 percent of likely voters said that their minds are made up with only 9 percent saying that they might change their minds

I'm always the guy saying slow down, it's not over yet and am usually panicked right up to election day. While I am not totally comfortable, I'm convinced that there is going to have to be a seriously big October surprise to change the dynamics of this election.
 
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acbytesla said:
... I don't think that Trump can just run away from who he has been for 40 years by trying to act normal for a month. ... Trump has received 2 billion dollars of free media over qualified months that branded him. You can't just in 2 months make every one now change their minds. It's not going to happen.

Both of these candidates have been in the public eye for the better part of 25 years. The public knows them both.
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I think you grossly overestimate the attention span of the American public. I sincerely hope I am wrong and you are right.
 
SezMe said:
That actually might have legs. Didn't Boeing move a lot of production jobs to North (South?) Carolina to avoid union rules?
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Not so much rules, as just to avoid the union. They then got sued for illegally threatening to move jobs as a bargaining chip. The suit was going to be difficult to defend as a senior executive was on record boasting of doing exactly that. They then had to guarantee all future 737 production to Puget Sound (union territory) to make the suit go away. Oops.

Trump's likelihood of making any headway in western Washington is nil. But I'm happy to see him waste his time here.
 
halleyscomet said:
I think you grossly overestimate the attention span of the American public. I sincerely hope I am wrong and you are right.
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LOL. I don't think I ever overestimate them. I have spent a lifetime in sales and marketing as well as in politics. It's at least 10 times harder to get people to change their minds than to get them to decide in the first place. It has nothing to with attention span. In fact that argument works against people changing their minds.

Think of it this way. The reason we all tune in to Trump is to see just what crazy thing he's going to say today, but if Trump starts acting like another boring pol, the world is not going to change their mind about him, they are going to yawn and probably not even notice. And while the press will still cover his speeches, they will stop being headline attention grabbing news.

So how does Trump get the attention required to change voter's minds when he's boring and reasonable? Well be could do it with advertising, but Trump hasn't bought much airtime whereas his opponent owns the airwaves with airtime bought months ago. And much of her ads keep reinforcing how temperamentally unfit Trump is.

Rebranding is far harder than establishing a brand. Especially when your competition won't let you.
 
Donnie Jr retweeted this:

CrG5HdFW8AAqeXK.jpg


https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/770600559414050816

He might be dumber than his dad.
 
acbytesla said:
LOL. I don't think I ever overestimate them. I have spent a lifetime in sales and marketing as well as in politics. It's at least 10 times harder to get people to change their minds than to get them to decide in the first place. It has nothing to with attention span. In fact that argument works against people changing their minds.

Think of it this way. The reason we all tune in to Trump is to see just what crazy thing he's going to say today, but if Trump starts acting like another boring pol, the world is not going to change their mind about him, they are going to yawn and probably not even notice. And while the press will still cover his speeches, they will stop being headline attention grabbing news.

So how does Trump get the attention required to change voter's minds when he's boring and reasonable? Well be could do it with advertising, but Trump hasn't bought much airtime whereas his opponent owns the airwaves with airtime bought months ago. And much of her ads keep reinforcing how temperamentally unfit Trump is.

Rebranding is far harder than establishing a brand. Especially when your competition won't let you.
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When you become a punchline, it is really hard to regain creditbiity.
As for Donald's bounce,Anybody with a knowledge of American Politics knew that would happen.
 
dudalb said:
When you become a punchline, it is really hard to regain creditbiity.
As for Donald's bounce,Anybody with a knowledge of American Politics knew that would happen.
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And Trump is a punchline on just about every station.just watch the late night hosts monologs. They might take a shot at Hillary but the jokes are much more benign. They lay into Trump. Because he's the comedy gift that keeps on giving.
 
The Don said:
I really do think that people who assume that Hillary will cruise to victory need to be very careful. The gradual rebound in Trump's numbers and corresponding improvement in his fivethirtyeight chances of winning are, IMO, indicative that there are a lot of people out there looking for reasons not to vote for Hillary and who are therefore willing to switch (back) to Trump if only he'd stop saying ridiculous things.
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You keep forgetting the one insurmountable problem, Trump is unsuited to be POTUS. That is not going to change no matter how hard you wish.
 
Clinton asks ‘Art of the Deal’ ghostwriter how to rattle Trump in debates

Hillary Clinton’s advisers are talking to Donald Trump’s ghostwriter of “The Art of the Deal,” seeking insights about Trump’s deepest insecurities as they devise strategies to needle and undermine him in four weeks at the first presidential debate, the most anticipated in recent political history.

Her team is also getting advice from psychology experts to help create a personality profile of Trump to gauge how he may respond to attacks and deal with a woman as his sole adversary on the debate stage.

As Clinton pores over this voluminous research with her debate team, most recently for several hours Friday, and her aides continue searching for someone who can rattle her as a Trump stand-in during mock debates, Trump is taking the opposite tack.

...

Clinton, a deeply competitive debater, wants to crush Trump on live television, but not with an avalanche of policy details; she is searching for ways to bait him into making blunders. Trump, a supremely self-confident communicator, wants viewers to see him as a truth-telling political outsider and trusts that he can box in Clinton on her ethics and honesty.

He has been especially resistant to his advisers’ suggestions that he take part in mock debates with a Clinton stand-in. At their first session devoted to the debate, at Trump’s club in Bedminster, N.J., on Aug. 21, the conservative radio host Laura Ingraham was on hand to offer counsel and, if Trump was game, to play Clinton. He declined.
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