Passing Peak Trump?

The remarks about the Japanese 'sitting in front of their Sony TVs' if the USA was attacked suggested any intervention by his campaign was short-lived in its effect. The stupidity of the comments is epic. He doesn't understand the historic reasons for the limits on the Japanese military, or the destabilizing effects on the Asia-Pacific region if they did change their constitution.
 
Distracted1 said:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/05/politics/donald-trump-endorse-paul-ryan/

And here comes the pivot.

A Donald Trump presidency would likely be disastrous but it is far from inconceivable at this point.
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We'll see, but it may be too little, too late, presuming the McCain and Ryan even want Trump's endorsement at this point. *shrug*

Trump winning may not be inconceivable, but it appears to be very unlikely and might require Donald Trump to not act like Donald Trump. This is Clinton's race to lose, at this point, and I'm not honestly sure what she'd have to do to look worse than Trump.
 
jhunter1163 said:
Any candidate who alienates the AARP does so at his peril. AARP is, by far, the largest advocacy group in the country (23 million members; half again as big as the NRA). And they vote.
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Well, that's Florida lost for him. There's 29 electoral votes worth of immigrants and old people down here.
 
Oh man. This thread is a gold mine of armchair quarterbacking. My favorite so far:

Ladewig said:
Clinton has a ground game and is using poll data to target voters very precisely. Trump, however, wants to run his campaign and Trump is against using data, he believes rallies are the key to victory. Also, Clinton can outspend him.
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Although, to be fair to Ladewig:

As I said, if we see a new Trump I will gladly admit to being wrong and will not whine if you say "I told you so."
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I won't say "I told you so", because I didn't. I didn't even see the Trump win coming, until it actually happened.

I never put much weight in the "outspend" argument in political campaigns. It seems like once you have enough money to clear the barrier to entry into the campaign, diminishing returns set in very quickly. By August, it was clear that Trump was getting all the publicity and coverage he needed, at a fraction of what Hillary was spending.

What I don't think any of us knew until after the election was over, was that the Clinton team didn't have a ground game, and that their reliance on targeting models was fatally misguided.
 
While I agree that Clinton's ground game (really the Neo-liberal ground game in general) had a fatal flaw (namely writing off whites, working class, and men) that had a powerful impact on the outcome, I feel constrained to point out that even with Papa Putin pulling every string he could that Clinton won the popular outright and only lost the EC by around 100,000 votes across 3-5 states. Everyone is buying into the Big Red Map and only seeing win/loss and not margin.
 
Peak Trump happened just before his first executive order was shot down.

Despite his japes and buffoonery, we had elected a clown to the highest office in the land. That first week of office brought a general indrawing of breath, as he squatted out toxic EOs like a chimp with the runs. We began to worry that maybe he was the evil kind of clown, the kind with the menacing and the homicide.

Then he started hitting himself in the face with pies.
 
Beelzebuddy said:
Peak Trump happened just before his first executive order was shot down.

Despite his japes and buffoonery, we had elected a clown to the highest office in the land. That first week of office brought a general indrawing of breath, as he squatted out toxic EOs like a chimp with the runs. We began to worry that maybe he was the evil kind of clown, the kind with the menacing and the homicide.

Then he started hitting himself in the face with pies.
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Yeah, he has gone from the Joker to Crusty the Clown.
 
hgc said:
First of all, yes this topic needs its own thread. This is about the long-term trend in Donald Trump's position in this race relative to the competition for the GOP nomination.

The thread title is inspired by an event that Trump did yesterday in South Carolina where the room was not even half filled and the cable news networks gave scant live coverage. The purpose of this thread is to track Trump's progress in poll standings and speculate on his evolving chances of being the nominee.

I'm not saying that Trump is definitely not going to win this nomination. But if he's not going to win it, then we will see a slide somewhere, sometime. Has that slide started now? Trump is a creature of the obsessive coverage by the political and entertainment media, which is a milieu where he generally is the most capable exploiter of the features of the landscape. But when the media coverage starts to slacken, if for no other reason than that the entertainment gets stale, he's probably going to suffer in his popularity.

Thoughts?
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I don't think we've passed Peak Trump yet
 
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