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What happened to convention bounce 4 Dems?

If you look at the RCP poll graph for the general election you'll see the bump for the GOP peaked on July 27th, 6 days after the convention ended. Clinton has now pushed ahead and Trump has taken a precipitous drop.

I have no clue what Nate Silverman is up to, he showed Trump passing Clinton today after steadily moving in that direction. Maybe he wants ratings. :rolleyes:

Election Update: Why Our Model Is Bullish On Trump, For Now

If the polls still show Clinton down a week from now, my faith in humanity will be shaken.
 
What's really freaking out the Right Wing pundits is that Muslim father's speech. That happened on Thursday, and if they're right, and it was one of the most powerful takeaways from the convention (and I think it was), we won't see the effect for another week or so.
 
Fudbucker said:
What's really freaking out the Right Wing pundits is that Muslim father's speech. That happened on Thursday, and if they're right, and it was one of the most powerful takeaways from the convention (and I think it was), we won't see the effect for another week or so.
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And Trump was stupid in his response to it.That is one of Trump's problems,he does not understand at times it is best just to keep your mouth shut about something.
 
dudalb said:
And Trump was stupid in his response to it.That is one of Trump's problems,he does not understand at times it is best just to keep your mouth shut about something.
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But he's sacrificed so much! He really thinks he has, so of course people focusing on this father really gets under his skin in classic narcissist fashion: What about ME?
 
Stacko said:
31% seems really low for Donald as he's been stuck in the ~40% range until his (brief?) convention bump. They might not be pushing the choice on the respondents strong enough.
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I don't know how accurate this is at all. But it wouldn't surprise me one bit. Consider the question; If the election was held today, who would you vote for?

That is essentially the question every poll asks. Figure 10 points for both candidates is or has been soft. Polls are reflecting that.

This is close to where everything was around June 1 with Clinton up by 8 to 12 points 44 to 32. Trump did well from then until the DNC started. But all he did was swing the soft supporters. He didn't lock those supporters up. The DNC, with great speeches from Barack, Bill, Biden and Michelle as well as a solid performance by Hillary took them back and probably added a few undecideds.

Also as a political observer the DNC as a whole really knocked it out of the park. The number of Republicans that are pissed at Trump and the difference between the two conventions is staggering.

Since 1980, it's been the Republicans that have been the optimistic patriotic party and these two conventions flipped that script.

Still, even if there is a 10 points plus lead, I think it's very soft.
 
jhunter1163 said:
Here's a good analysis from the New York Times. Basically, Trump is putting all his effort into winning the big battleground states. He has no realistic chance if he doesn't win them all; that being said, he's likely to lose at least one (Pennsylvania) and probably two (Florida).

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...e-3-states-are-must-win/ar-BBv3Kx9?li=BBnbcA1
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I guess someone who is not a total moron convinced him of the fact that he can't win California or New York.
 
Tony Stark said:
I guess someone who is not a total moron convinced him of the fact that he can't win California or New York.
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It's hard for me to see how Trump can win.He's counting on victories in places that have been strongly Democratic And he has to hold on to Florida where Cuban immigrants have always voted Republican because of their support for the Cuban embargo. An issue that has lost a great deal of its power over time.

This is all monster speculation, but still.
 
Fudbucker said:
It depends on who you go by. 538 has Trump in the lead right now.
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I get that. I was just pointing out that it is no means a consensus. I like 270 to win because they compile the results of all the major polls.
 
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Fudbucker said:
It depends on who you go by. 538 has Trump in the lead right now.
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Trump's lead in that particular forecast is due to the post-convention bounce that he received. If you look 538's polls-plus forecast, which adjusts for convention bounces, Hillary is still at a 60% of winning. Once the next round of polls come out next week, I suspect you will see Hillary reclaim the lead in the polls-only and electoral forecast as well.
 
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Hillary's image has improved following the conventions while Donald's hasn't, according to the latest PPP poll.

Clinton's net favorability improved by 9 points over the last month. She's still not popular, with a -6 net favorability at 45/51, but it's a good deal better than the -15 spread she had at 39/54 a month ago. The gains are particularly attributable to Democrats increasing in their enthusiasm for her, going from giving her a 76/15 rating to an 83/12 one. Trump, on the other hand, is at a -22 net favorability with 36% of voters seeing him favorably to 58% with a negative one. That's barely changed at all from the 35/58 standing we found for him in late June.
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Also, Donald's followers are nuts.

...we find that 74% of Trump voters think Clinton should be in prison, to only 12% who disagree. By a 66/22 margin they say Clinton is a bigger threat to the United States than Russia. And 33% think Clinton even has ties to Lucifer, to 36% who say they don't think so, and 31% who are unsure either way
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...s-following-conventions-leads-trump-by-5.html


Hillary is up five points in that poll, btw.
 
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