What happened to convention bounce 4 Dems?

[wareyin]

What?


ETA:NVM! I see what you are saying. Whew...

Yep, on the survey methods page:
More than 3200 UAS panel members so far (July 2016) have agreed to participate in answering questions about the election, and we expect that number will increase over time. Each day, 1/7th of those who have agreed to participate (more than 400 per day) are invited to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) if you were to vote, you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else (percentages add to 100) and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win (percentages add to 100). The order of the candidates in the questions is randomized so that about half of the respondents see Clinton as the first choice and half of the respondents see Trump as the first choice.

 

[Dog Town]

Yep, on the survey methods page:
More than 3200 UAS panel members so far (July 2016) have agreed to participate in answering questions about the election, and we expect that number will increase over time. Each day, 1/7th of those who have agreed to participate (more than 400 per day) are invited to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) if you were to vote, you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else (percentages add to 100) and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win (percentages add to 100). The order of the candidates in the questions is randomized so that about half of the respondents see Clinton as the first choice and half of the respondents see Trump as the first choice.

Thanks! Once you said that, I knew I must have missed something. I did!

* Blood pressure lowering!

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Pretty sure the bounce effect kicks in after the convention ends.

D'uh.

There was a pundit discussion on this yesterday and they suggested you can't go by any polls until about 2 weeks after both the conventions.

 

[acbytesla]

This is why daily tracking polls are unreliable. They don't often meet these criteria. A single day of over sampling a group can easily throw them off.

The worst polls are the telephone call in polls. It's just way too easy to get skewed results. I'm also convinced that occasionally a pollster will put out a shocking poll just to get a headline with their name on it.

 

[Jrrarglblarg]

Nah...Effective polling takes time. I worked in college for a pollster. BTW, 90 percent of professional polling is commercial not political and one hell of a boring job. You're lucky if 10 percent of the targeted population will even answer your questions. Some pollsters are also not very good. To have a credible poll, you have to reach a solid sample covering the total target demographic. The right number of whites, blacks hispanics, under 30, under 40 over 40 and the right mix of men and women and regionally diverse.

With the advent of Do Not Call lists the sample selection pool has narrowed. I may be personally responsible for the GOP disenfranchising Colorado republicans from voting in the primary by changing the rules after a whole series of phone polls. I registered Republican a couple years ago because the state requires "major" party affiliation to vote in primary elections.

 

[Fudbucker]

That poll seems like an outlier. However, Trump has pulled ahead of Clinton in the RCP average. He obviously got a 3-5 point bounce out of that horrible convention. Hillary continues to be a deeply flawed candidate that a lot of people are having trouble supporting.

However, she has excellent surrogates, like the Obama's, Warren, and now Sanders. I expect she'll get at least a five point bounce, and we'll be back to an overall Clinton lead of about 3 points in a week or so.

 

[GodMark2]

With the advent of Do Not Call lists the sample selection pool has narrowed. I may be personally responsible for the GOP disenfranchising Colorado republicans from voting in the primary by changing the rules after a whole series of phone polls. I registered Republican a couple years ago because the state requires "major" party affiliation to vote in primary elections.

Do Not Call lists specifically exempt political polling, so there should be no change.

The National Do Not Call Registry does not limit calls by political organizations, charities, or telephone surveyors.

link

It's a major loophole that some political machines love to exploit (Push Poll^WP).

 

[acbytesla]

With the advent of Do Not Call lists the sample selection pool has narrowed. I may be personally responsible for the GOP disenfranchising Colorado republicans from voting in the primary by changing the rules after a whole series of phone polls. I registered Republican a couple years ago because the state requires "major" party affiliation to vote in primary elections.

I absolutely try not to even think about a single poll even if it's from Gallup or Pew who are two of the best. I figure you can have some confidence in the results of 5 or 6 and probably tossing out one or two that might be outliers.

Getting excited or panicked over 1 poll in July is not having proper persspective. Joe Biden joked last night when he was told it was tied said few people pay attention until after the World Series.

 

[Dog Town]

Getting excited or panicked over 1 poll in July is not having proper persspective.

Mea culpa!

 

[Tony Stark]

One problem with phone polls is that they often are landline only. The only reason I have a landline is because it is bundled with the cable/internet. There isn't even a phone connected to the modem.

 

[acbytesla]

Mea culpa!

I understand. I lost a pretty penny when I first started trading stocks because I'd panic when my stocks would have a bad day or week and then sell at the wrong time.

Patience Grasshopper.

 

[acbytesla]

One problem with phone polls is that they often are landline only. The only reason I have a landline is because it is bundled with the cable/internet. There isn't even a phone connected to the modem.

And I haven't had a landline in 15 years. And the number of people like that has been growing. Especially among the young. So they are likely to be underrepresented.

 

[Stacko]

And I haven't had a landline in 15 years. And the number of people like that has been growing. Especially among the young. So they are likely to be underrepresented.

People in the Obama campaign also noticed that Hispanic voters are under polled as well.

 

[Tony Stark]

People in the Obama campaign also noticed that Hispanic voters are under polled as well.

Because the pollsters usually don't speak Spanish?

 

[Dog Town]

And I haven't had a landline in 15 years. And the number of people like that has been growing. Especially among the young. So they are likely to be underrepresented.

I always thought that too, and it may be true overall. I did get a poll call, on my mobile during the primaries though. Mostly, I'm guessing, because Bernie/Dems had my number.

"The times...they are a..."

 

[Stacko]

Because the pollsters usually don't speak Spanish?

Possibly. They could also have a lower rate of landline ownership or just be less willing to participate in a poll. With Hispanic immigration (legal and illegal) being a focal point of recent elections, I could see many not wanting to go through the questions about it because it's kinda insulting. Poll participation is often influenced by mood; it's why convention bounces exist because respondents from the party are energized and willing to talk to pollsters. Conversely when bad news, ie. Clinton's private server issue coming to a close, supporters are less willing to go through the processes of poll participation even if they still support the candidate. Things are never as rosy or bad as they seem.

 

[sir drinks-a-lot]

That poll seems like an outlier. However, Trump has pulled ahead of Clinton in the RCP average. He obviously got a 3-5 point bounce out of that horrible convention. Hillary continues to be a deeply flawed candidate that a lot of people are having trouble supporting.

However, she has excellent surrogates, like the Obama's, Warren, and now Sanders. I expect she'll get at least a five point bounce, and we'll be back to an overall Clinton lead of about 3 points in a week or so.

Seems about right, granted that nothing else exceptional happens in the meantime.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Again, it always seemed like the nomination starts the bounce. Maybe I am wrong. I hope so...

The LA Times/USC poll seems to be trying something different and I'm not sure what to make of it.

They report a date range, but their methodology is quite different from most polls. They update daily, polling 1/7th of their total sampling. So at best, if they got a bounce after the activity on Monday, it would only have that fraction of an impact, being largely overwhelmed by the other 6/7ths of the week's sampling.

Note that they claim to update at midnight every day, so I'd tend to discount the thought that they have any results from that day. I can't believe in a national poll that they contacted their entire sampling AFTER the convention events of that evening. Poll respondents probably don't give honest responses to pollsters who wake them.

It's an interesting methodology but with the above caveats:
It says it's from the 20th to 26th, but that really means the answers we received on the days in that range, but would be responding to events from the 19th to 25th, if you're really looking for what polling pros consider "the overnights".
Bear in mind that if you're looking at a single bellwether event.... say Bernie's speech on the 25th, you're going to see six days of prior polling that doesn't reflect whatever impact of the bellwether event.
It's LA. When the say they update at midnight, they mean three a.m. to you fuzzy-headed-eastern-intellectuals. I'll check back in about an hour to see if it really gets updated and there's any movement from Tuesday's events; I expect no movement from Wednesday night's powerhouse bloc of speeches.

 

[Foolmewunz]

That poll seems like an outlier. However, Trump has pulled ahead of Clinton in the RCP average. He obviously got a 3-5 point bounce out of that horrible convention. Hillary continues to be a deeply flawed candidate that a lot of people are having trouble supporting.

However, she has excellent surrogates, like the Obama's, Warren, and now Sanders. I expect she'll get at least a five point bounce, and we'll be back to an overall Clinton lead of about 3 points in a week or so.

I'm not sure it's an outlier. It's taking the daily temperature, so to speak. The same group called the CA primary better than most. They had the mythical dead heat but then continued.... but with likely voters Hillary is outpolling him considerably. The latter proved accurate.

 

[Foolmewunz]

For the charting yes. Info is DAILY. The 7 points is TODAY!

ETA: Try reading the poll link! Chart starts on the 10th.

Yes, and important to note, as I mentioned, that any single day/data point reflects the previous seven days average.