What happened to convention bounce 4 Dems?

[Dog Town]

Well, this is off to a bad start!
Huge LA Times Poll: Trump Takes 7-Point Lead

A new national poll released Wednesday shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 7 points. The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Daybreak Poll shows: Donald Trump: 47 percent Hillary Clinton 40 percent The poll surveyed 3,000 Americans by the Los Angeles Times and the USC Dornsife Center. Trump's skyrocketing numbers come just three days after the same poll, which is updated daily, showed Trump leading Clinton 45 percent to 41 percent. And they arrive just hours after Clinton was officially anointed as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee during Day 2 of its convention in Philadelphia.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/trump-clinton-poll-los-angeles-times/2016/07/27/id/740785/

 

[Molinaro]

Pretty sure the bounce effect kicks in after the convention ends.

 

[Stacko]

They happen after the convention not during.

Just wait to the post RNC polls come out in the middle of the DNC! Donald is polling relatively low with actually Republicans compared to historical nominees so he could see a bigger boost than usual if some neverTrumpers decide to come home to Republicans. Oh the bed-wetting that will happen on the pollercoaster then.

 

[Dog Town]

The nomination usually gets things started.

 

[acbytesla]

Well, this is off to a bad start!
Huge LA Times Poll: Trump Takes 7-Point Lead


http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/trump-clinton-poll-los-angeles-times/2016/07/27/id/740785/

Give it a week after the Convention. Saying that the Convention bounce is missing on Day 2 is absurdly premature. This is exactly what you can expect about a week after the Republican convention.

If Trump is ahead in late September, then I start to panic. Just between you and me I want the Democrats scared. I frankly was annoyed by the suggestions it was in the bag. That it was some kind of formality.

 

[Dog Town]

Just between you and me I want the Democrats scared. I frankly was annoyed by the suggestions it was in the bag. That it was some kind of formality.

Totally agree. Complacency could ruin EVERYTHING!

 

[Dog Town]

Give it a week after the Convention. Saying that the Convention bounce is missing on Day 2 is absurdly premature.

Again, it always seemed like the nomination starts the bounce. Maybe I am wrong. I hope so...

 

[dudalb]

And this was before Trump's wanting Russia to Hack The DNC's computers;that is going to take a lot of the juice out of the bounce.

 

[wareyin]

You expect a poll conducted from July 18th through July 26th to show a bounce from a convention that didn't start until July 25th?

 

[Dog Town]

You expect a poll conducted from July 18th through July 26th to show a bounce from a convention that didn't start until July 25th?

It says it's updated daily. The day after the nomination bothered me.
YMMV!

The "Daybreak poll" is updated just after midnight every day of the week.

 

[wareyin]

It says it's updated daily. The day after the nomination bothered me.
YMMV!

The poll was released today, but was conducted July 18-26. You wouldn't see a bounce until you get a poll conducted after the nomination.

 

[Dog Town]

The poll was released today, but was conducted July 18-26. You wouldn't see a bounce until you get a poll conducted after the nomination.

It's available DAILY!

The 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll represents a pioneering approach to tracking changes in Americans' opinions throughout a campaign for the White House. Around 3000 respondents in our representative panel are asked questions on a regular basis on what they care about most in the election, and on their attitudes toward their preferred candidates. The "Daybreak poll" is updated just after midnight every day of the week.

Note: If you check back often, you may need to refresh your browser page to see the latest update

 

[wareyin]

It's available DAILY!

And the information available today was gathered July 18-26th!

 

[Dog Town]

And the information available today was gathered July 18-26th!

For the charting yes. Info is DAILY. The 7 points is TODAY!

ETA: Try reading the poll link! Chart starts on the 10th.

 

[acbytesla]

Again, it always seemed like the nomination starts the bounce. Maybe I am wrong. I hope so...

Nah...Effective polling takes time. I worked in college for a pollster. BTW, 90 percent of professional polling is commercial not political and one hell of a boring job. You're lucky if 10 percent of the targeted population will even answer your questions. Some pollsters are also not very good. To have a credible poll, you have to reach a solid sample covering the total target demographic. The right number of whites, blacks hispanics, under 30, under 40 over 40 and the right mix of men and women and regionally diverse.

 

[Dog Town]

Nah...Effective polling takes time. I worked in college for a pollster. BTW, 90 percent of professional polling is commercial not political and one hell of a boring job. You're lucky if 10 percent of the targeted population will even answer your questions. Some pollsters are also not very good. To have a credible poll, you have to reach a solid sample covering the total target demographic. The right number of whites, blacks hispanics, under 30, under 40 over 40 and the right mix of men and women and regionally diverse.

That's a little more comforting.

 

[wareyin]

For the charting yes. Info is DAILY. The 7 points is TODAY!

I just looked more at that page. Wow, what a small sample size (they don't give hard numbers, just more than 400), and they only ask 3 questions:
What is the percent chance that... (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) if you were to vote, you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else (percentages add to 100) and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win (percentages add to 100)

The predicted winner according to their own respondents is Clinton by 4.5 points today, with those intending to vote for Clinton also winning, yet somehow USC Dornsife takes that data and forecasts a 7 point Trump win?

 

[Stacko]

Nah...Effective polling takes time. I worked in college for a pollster. BTW, 90 percent of professional polling is commercial not political and one hell of a boring job. You're lucky if 10 percent of the targeted population will even answer your questions. Some pollsters are also not very good. To have a credible poll, you have to reach a solid sample covering the total target demographic. The right number of whites, blacks hispanics, under 30, under 40 over 40 and the right mix of men and women and regionally diverse.

This is why daily tracking polls are unreliable. They don't often meet these criteria. A single day of over sampling a group can easily throw them off.

 

[Dog Town]

I just looked more at that page. Wow, what a small sample size (they don't give hard numbers, just more than 400), and they only ask 3 questions:

What?

Around 3000 respondents in our representative panel are asked questions on a regular basis

ETA:NVM! I see what you are saying. Whew...

 

[acbytesla]

For the charting yes. Info is DAILY. The 7 points is TODAY!

ETA: Try reading the poll link! Chart starts on the 10th.

It's also bs. It's more promo than poll.

Watching this crap day by day minute by minute is as wise as watching your stock portfolio rise and fall minute by minute. If you want to follow the polls, look at an aggregate of the polls once a waeek.