Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread II

Slings and Arrows said:
"Bernie Sanders runs against Wall Street corruption, and then endorses the biggest Wall Street shill in electoral history."

Twitter: #SellOutSanders, #BernieBernedMe, #ByeByeBernie
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You sharing sources with CE? First Russia Today, Putin's propaganda arm, now CounterPunch?

You're not citing reputable sources, or have you noticed? You're also now trolling anti-Bernie-sellout sites? Just a few days ago you were selling us on the Bernie Revolution continuing on up to November. Why don't you just start plugging your Orange Hero? I know there's nothing good to say about him, but someone's gotta be President. You can't just say "no one else".... that winds up being a Trump vote, and no sane person will vote for Trump.
 
If it is the case that no sane person will vote for Trump, then the definition of insanity needs to be broadened considerably. I suspect that HRC will be the next POTUS but it won't be by a landslide.
 
Prokhor Zakharov said:
If it is the case that no sane person will vote for Trump, then the definition of insanity needs to be broadened considerably. I suspect that HRC will be the next POTUS but it won't be by a landslide.
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Hillary will win by a landslide. To be more accurate, although it's a distinction without a difference, politically, Hillary Clinton will win; Donald Trump will lose by a landslide. When comedy writers are threatening to strike because Trump's taken away their jobs and when people rush to the morning news to see what stupid thing the candidate said last night, it's beyond hope.
 
Presently, though their recent performance has not been ideal, the prediction markets have not converged towards a 100% probability that Clinton will be next POTUS:

http://predictwise.com/politics/

This, for example, suggests that the election will not be a straightforward matter.
 
Bernie Fans Say 'Fart-In' Against Hillary Will Go On

Advocates for poor people and progressive causes say they still plan to make a stink – literally – during Hillary Clinton’s big night accepting the Democratic presidential nomination this month.

The plan: feed beans to Democratic National Convention delegates for Bernie Sanders, and send them into the Philadelphia convention hall to show what they think of the former secretary of state.

Sanders-supporting organizers of the odious protest are unswayed by the Vermont senator's Tuesday endorsement of Clinton.

Read more:
http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-07-12/bernie-fans-say-fart-in-against-hillary-will-go-on (July 12, 2016)
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The campfire scene from the movie Blazing Saddles -- the perfect sound track to accompany Hillary's acceptance speech.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
The facts don't support that conclusion, but it does suggest someone's been sucking on the GOP narrative teat.
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Why do you think I've been sucking on the GOP narrative tit? I don't think I've ever said a single thing in favor of the GOP here. It is true that I listen to talk radio, but that's only for entertainment purposes. (I can call to mind Sean Hannity blabbering about Obama celebrating Nowruz "with the mullahs"—obviously not knowing that Nowruz is a pre-Islamic Zoroastrian holiday and therefore seen as blasphemous by said mullahs.)

I don't see why HRC would not be seen as a terrible person by most standards for "terrible person". Merely having jurisprudential qualifications suggests this in itself, as do various other things about her.
 
I'll get to the rest a bit later. Of course US elections for POTUS are decided by the electoral college. Nonetheless, the electoral college has been in accord with the popular vote IIRC ~93% of the time. And in the post in question, I am referring to the popular vote. No matter how the electoral college votes, there will, most likely, be a very substantial contingent of voters who would want Trump to become next POTUS.
 
Prokhor Zakharov said:
I'll get to the rest a bit later. Of course US elections for POTUS are decided by the electoral college. Nonetheless, the electoral college has been in accord with the popular vote IIRC ~93% of the time. And in the post in question, I am referring to the popular vote. No matter how the electoral college votes, there will, most likely, be a very substantial contingent of voters who would want Trump to become next POTUS.
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While there are a number of people that do want Trump to be President, there are (by the numbers I am seeing) more that will vote Trump either to support the GOP or just because he's not Hillary. The trouble for the GOP is that they don't have the support in the States they need it to be. It's no good having 90% support in one of the smaller states when you're losing 53-47 in the big ones.

The email scandal has hurt her in the last week, but there is a long way to go yet and things have hardly even started. Once the campaigning and the debates start, we'll see what happens.
 
PhantomWolf said:
While there are a number of people that do want Trump to be President, there are (by the numbers I am seeing) more that will vote Trump either to support the GOP or just because he's not Hillary. The trouble for the GOP is that they don't have the support in the States they need it to be. It's no good having 90% support in one of the smaller states when you're losing 53-47 in the big ones.

The email scandal has hurt her in the last week, but there is a long way to go yet and things have hardly even started. Once the campaigning and the debates start, we'll see what happens.
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Trump's currently winning two of the three most important battleground states (and tied in the third):
New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing...p-has-edge-in-key-states-225442#ixzz4EOqlSfMv
 
Fudbucker said:
Trump's currently winning two of the three most important battleground states (and tied in the third):
New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing...p-has-edge-in-key-states-225442#ixzz4EOqlSfMv
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But other polls give Clinton an advantage in all three states. Including the new Quinnipiac surveys, POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average — which include the five most-recent polls in each state — gives Clinton a 3.2-point lead in Florida, a 2.8-point edge in Ohio and a larger, 4.6-point advantage in Pennsylvania.

So there's that ...
 
Fudbucker said:
Trump's currently winning two of the three most important battleground states (and tied in the third):
New swing-state polls released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University show Trump leading Clinton in Florida and Pennsylvania — and tied in the critical battleground state of Ohio. In three of the states that matter most in November, the surveys point to a race much closer than the national polls, which have Clinton pegged to a significant, mid-single-digit advantage over Trump, suggest.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing...p-has-edge-in-key-states-225442#ixzz4EOqlSfMv
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Ah, Quinnipiac. While a solid A rating from fivethirtyeight gives them credence, they do consistently skew Republican, by 0.7 points.

You're still focusing on a single poll which gives you the results you want, rather than an aggregate of polls, which gives a much better indication of reality.
 
wareyin said:
Ah, Quinnipiac. While a solid A rating from fivethirtyeight gives them credence, they do consistently skew Republican, by 0.7 points.

You're still focusing on a single poll which gives you the results you want, rather than an aggregate of polls, which gives a much better indication of reality.
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Aggregate still suffers from the problem of treating all polls as equal. It's why Nate Silver's model was so effective since it accounted for errors in polling especially since polling companies aren't polling across demographics properly especially with regards to the minority vote.
 
Stacko said:
Aggregate still suffers from the problem of treating all polls as equal. It's why Nate Silver's model was so effective since it accounted for errors in polling especially since polling companies aren't polling across demographics properly especially with regards to the minority vote.
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I agree. Perhaps I was using the wrong terminology, but I didn't realize that aggregate implied weighting them all equally. I thought the term meant looking at them as a whole, as fivethirtyeight does while weighing each poll differently according to various factors. My point, which perhaps I was unclear on, is that Fudbucker is cherry-picking a single poll from a source known to skew Republican in an effort to find problems for Clinton.
 
TheL8Elvis said:
But other polls give Clinton an advantage in all three states. Including the new Quinnipiac surveys, POLITICO’s Battleground State polling average — which include the five most-recent polls in each state — gives Clinton a 3.2-point lead in Florida, a 2.8-point edge in Ohio and a larger, 4.6-point advantage in Pennsylvania.

So there's that ...
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The RCP spread for Florida is Trump up by .2.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

Clinton's got a three point lead in Penn (RCP average), and in Ohio, Clinton is up by 1 (RCP average).

So I ask again: How on Earth is Trump winning in Florida? What is his coalition?
 
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