I don't know...maybe because you don't want to commit a grouping error? But you don't seem to mind committing a grouping error. So I really don't know why you commit a grouping error leading into a false comparison fallacy.
As I laboriously explained, you shouldn't be surprised that some other lottery winner has won a lottery. Because that posterior probability is 1. And the prior probability that "someone" will win a lottery is very nearly 1.
You should be surprised that you, specifically, have won a lottery. Because that prior probability was, give or take, 0.00000006, depending on the specific lottery odds.
See, those two probabilities are vastly different in both class and magnitude.
No, you shouldn't be surprised about having won the lottery "as opposed to" any irrelevant, extraneous person or event you happen to toss in to cloud the issue, whether it be someone else who plays the lottery or someone whose toe might be lopped off by a micrometeorite. None of that extraneous detritus is remotely relevant to the question of whether you would be correct to be surprised to have won a lottery. Leave it out.
If you can't work it out for yourself, just trust me on this. You should be surprised. You should also be surprised if your toe is lopped off by a micrometeorite. But relatively small stuff like winning lotteries and getting a toe lopped off by a micrometeorite pale to insignificance when compared to the giganogartantuan prior odds against the existence of your specific brain. So, if you have no other possible explanation to your current momentary flicker of sentience in the midst of eternity or aternity, be surprised. Be very surprised.
And I am compelled by experience to preemptively add that the time to be surprised at the occurrence of an event is
after it happens. Mainly because that is the only time you can be surprised at the occurrence of an event.
Bitter experience also compels me to caution you against looking stupid by proclaiming that the posterior probability of an event is 1, therefore surprise at the occurrence of an event is always too late.
I plead not guilty and accuse you of comitting a grouping error.
I am not a member of the group of (other individuals who have won a lottery), and never will be.
If I were to win a lottery, I still wouldn't be a member of the group of (other individuals who have won a lottery). I would become the sole member of a unique class consisting of (myself, having won a lottery)
There would only be one
me that has won a lottery. All these other people you keep wanting to bring in are irrelevant. They do not belong in the class that determines whether I would be correct to be surprised at having won a lottery.
I didn't buy a ticket to the life lottery. So, by your own admission, yeah. It is very suspicious (to me) that I exist. But I can't really say I'm surprised, because I don't automatically subscribe to your premises as to the fundamental nature of reality.
But suspicion at my existence should not extend to you. Keep your classes straight.