Brexit: the referendum

Well, we will know in.. what.. 36 hours ?

I fear the 'remain' camp will win it, and then we shall see the screw tightened !
 
Elagabalus said:
He use to do "The Daily Show" and he is rather famous* for performing this rap


on the TV series "Community".


*to the "Community" Tifosi.


How sexy do you feel now?
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thank you for the link - I clicked on the 'I agree' but it only lasted a few seconds!!
At my age, I do not spend time wondering if I feel sexy or not!! And, you know, Paul Newman died years ago.... I always meant to have a poster of him, but never got around to it! :D

I did not even start to watch the debate last night, but did listen to some of the phone-ins and, as usual, was fed up that they end up with a leaver speaking. As for the ghastly Boris, well, words fail me....
 
SusanB-M1 said:
As for the ghastly Boris, well, words fail me....
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I'm not surprised; I'm sure he's an aberration of nature and therefore beyond description or understanding by mere mortals.

How anyone finds him to be worthy of a vote for anything other than "Tory Tosser" I certainly don't understand.
 
Roofgardener said:
Well, we will know in.. what.. 36 hours ?

I fear the 'remain' camp will win it, and then we shall see the screw tightened !
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Which screw ?

In the event that the Leave campaign win I cannot see a positive outcome.

If we do not agree to abide by E.U. laws and accept the free movement of people then we will be denied access to the European free trade area. That means that all of a sudden 50% or so of our exports will be subject to tariffs on entry to the EU and all kinds of extra red tape to demonstrate that they, and all their components adhere to EU standards. We would end up less competitive in Europe and as far as I can see no more competitive in the rest of the world (unless we're suddenly going to reduce wages, employee safety or environmental standards - none of which sound like a "win" to me). In this model the big winners are people like James Dyson who may be able to import his Malaysian manufactured vacuum cleaners into the UK slightly more cheaply.

The alternative model is one in which we opt to remain in the EU free trade area which means that we will be subject to all the rules, have to pay the same "dues" in terms of EU contributions but not receive any funding back from the EU and not be able to influence any of the legislation by which we would have to abide (and probably lose our opt-outs in the process).

The Leave campaign have suggested that we would be able to get some kind of sweetheart deal in which we get all the benefits of EU membership with none of the obligations or costs. This is sheer fantasy as the EU, those familiar with EU law and pretty much all other economic and legal experts agree. People like Dyson and Bamford accept that this is the case but for them it's a price worth paying, in Dyson's case to be able to import to the UK more cheaply, in Bamford's case he's hoping for great deals in the Far East (good luck with that btw).

I don't even know who is supposed to be the winners in the event of a Brexit....

In an attempt to become more "competitive" (i.e. cheaper) post Brexit, U.K. business will trim its cost base which means some combination of lower staff costs, worse working conditions and worse environmental controls. I cannot see how this is a "win" for workers or the public.

When imports from the E.U. become more expensive (as they will in the Farmers' fantasy), that will increase prices overall. In an environment where wages are already being squeezed to make us more "competitive" then it'll be even harder for people to make ends meet.

Ah, but fewer people will mean that houses will be cheaper. Well yes, if you're waiting to get on the property ladder then that MAY be good but because wages will be being squeezed to make us more "competitive" and because interest rates will have to rise to address the tariff induced inflation (unless we're also going to ask the Bank of England not to worry about that :rolleyes:), houses may actually be less affordable (say if prices only drop 20% but interest rates go from 3% to - still below the long term average - 4.5%) so those waiting to get on the property ladder will worse off and millions with home loans will be in negative equity - how is this a "win" ?
 
Mid said:
Yes all the great thinkers of the age have now come out in favour of remain :D
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The Leave campaign OTOH had to say that they had footballers to, John Barnes and Sol Campbell. The latter certainly has a reputation for looking after number one on and off the field - consistent with those leading the Leave campaign who seem to be saying never mind if we break the UK economy in the process I want to:

- Lead the Tory party - Boris and Gove
- Make importing my vacuum cleaners from Malaysia cheaper - Dyson
- Pretend to live in the 1950s when I can call people nig-nogs - Farage
 
The Don said:
The Leave campaign OTOH had to say that they had footballers to, John Barnes and Sol Campbell. The latter certainly has a reputation for looking after number one on and off the field - consistent with those leading the Leave campaign who seem to be saying never mind if we break the UK economy in the process I want to:

- Lead the Tory party - Boris and Gove
- Make importing my vacuum cleaners from Malaysia cheaper - Dyson
- Pretend to live in the 1950s when I can call people nig-nogs - Farage and Bojo
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Surely you haven't forgotten the picaninnies with their lovely watermelon smiles
 
A colleague pointed out that even Prof Minford's forecast was that leaving would seriously damage British manufacturing. He claimed that our "world-class" service industry would replace it.

I see no reason to believe the latter. There are links and a pretty comprehensive takedown if you search for Minford 4% modelling
 
The Don said:
I don't even know who is supposed to be the winners in the event of a Brexit....
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Well the good old 'British' people of course (for which read 'English' in the minds of most of those uttering this nonsense) - without those nasty foreign types holding us back with their H&S legislation and coming over here stealing our jobs and women we'll be back to ruling the world in no time...and anyone who says different is a traitor who doesn't believe British people are great and would still have a world dominating empire if we hadn't handicapped ourselves by partnering with those lazy foreign types*.

I think that's how the argument goes anyway...

Love the fact that when a pro leave businessman was banging on about Brussels red tape and was challenged as to what specific legislation was holding him back, the best he could come up with was an H&S rule about chairs needing 5 legs to be stable. He'd even misunderstood that, conflating it with the sort of 4 legged chairs where the legs go up to the seat when it actually applies to the office type swivel chair that splays out at the bottom from a central stem - that would be sodding unstable with '4 legs'. He didn't even make chairs and, since all those that do comply with legislation, he was completely unaffected by it and yet that was the best he could do.

*Who are nevertheless hard working enough to apparently steal our jobs...
 
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jimbob said:
A colleague pointed out that even Prof Minford's forecast was that leaving would seriously damage British manufacturing. He claimed that our "world-class" service industry would replace it.

I see no reason to believe the latter. There are links and a pretty comprehensive takedown if you search for Minford 4% modelling
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Well to be fair that's only half the picture as there's also the massive slashing of worker and consumer rights also envisaged in his model which shouldn't be ignored either
 
The main problem in my opinion, is that the Leave can give headline material “Immigrants!!” “£350m week !!” “Make Britain great again !!”.
When the whole thing hasn’t descended into playground arguments, the Remain voice seems to be saying “It’s rather nice here dearie, come in and have a cup of tea.” (Which doesn’t make good headline material.)
 
Don't know if it has been quoted here before, the ramifications of a leave vote (thruth about second referendum etc.) is here. Apologies if duplicated.
 
jimbob said:
A colleague pointed out that even Prof Minford's forecast was that leaving would seriously damage British manufacturing. He claimed that our "world-class" service industry would replace it.
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Well as I've explained complained repeatedly, the small part of the UK service industry I own would likely go out of business in the event of Brexit because outside the E.U. the rates we could charge would be so low and/or the costs of doing business are so high that we couldn't afford to pay our staff .
 
I did some number crunching on online polls versus phone polls. The only way remain can lose in my opinion is by people not getting out and voting in same numbers as the leave side.


For online polls the average responses have been as below:-

Leave - 41.1%
Remain - 41.6%

However, when you look at phone polls, which are generally more accurate, the below is evident:-

Leave - 40.3%
Remain - 49.6%
 
Stuart said:
Don't know if it has been quoted here before, the ramifications of a leave vote (thruth about second referendum etc.) is here. Apologies if duplicated.
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I hadn't yet seen that article. Not comfortable reading if you are a "soft" Leave (i.e. not leave no matter what the cost) supporter.

My take-aways from the article are:

  • Once begun there is no mechanism to stop Brexit
  • There is no mechanism to allow an "oopsie, we messed up" second referendum to withdraw our leave request if the terms of Brexit are too onerous. This runs directly counter to the claims of Boris and Matthew Parris among others
  • The UK doesn't get to sit in the room while the remaining members of the EU decide on the EU's terms for Brexit.
  • Then again, some Remain campaigners have claimed that we would have no say in the exit terms. This is untrue, we would get to negotiate but then again after 2 years there is a cut-off and so the UK could be fillibustered to a very unfavourable deal
 
I had a chat with the landlady of the pub we stop in after band practice. Until yesterday she hadn't fully engaged in the Brexit campaign because she had a beer and music festival to organise (Wyld Bird Seed played). Based on the volume of signs for Leave and the Leave leanings of many of her farming and countrymen regulars she had been leaning towards Leave. Then she sat down and watched the debate on TV last night.

In her words:

  • Until she actually saw it challenged, she hadn't realised how flimsy the Leave case was on detail about what post-Brexit may look like
  • She was unhappy about the vehemence of the anti-immigration message. Her ex-husband was a first generation immigrant so her children are from "immigrant stock"
  • As a businesswoman in a pub which is just finished recovering from 2008 she is worried about a Brexit-triggered recession
  • The calm and clear way in which Nicola Sturgeon spoke impressed her - even though politically they are miles apart

She clearly took the time to inform herself - I was impressed. I hope other people did rather than sticking to the inaccurate soundbytes.
 
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