Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread II

[Skeptic Ginger]

I'm going to predict 58 Clinton 42 Sanders because of the 4% still not reported, a good chunk of that is in heavily populated boroughs Clinton has large leads in. A smaller proportion is upstate.

Currently it's 57.7 to 42.3 with 95.7% reporting.

 

[Travis]

I know a girl taking a graduate film school class at NYU and she assured me going into the election that just about everyone in her class was pro Bernie. Today she posted a pretty angry facebook update excoriating her classmates for not bothering to vote. Apparently she was the only one in her class that did.

That is really, really infuriating.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I'm going to predict 58 Clinton 42 Sanders because of the 4% still not reported, a good chunk of that is in heavily populated boroughs Clinton has large leads in. A smaller proportion is upstate.

Currently it's 57.7 to 42.3 with 95.7% reporting.

Yep, now with 98.5% counted the numbers are 57.9% to 42.1%.

 

[PhantomWolf]

I know a girl taking a graduate film school class at NYU and she assured me going into the election that just about everyone in her class was pro Bernie. Today she posted a pretty angry facebook update excoriating her classmates for not bothering to vote. Apparently she was the only one in her class that did.

That is really, really infuriating.

Unless she has a REALLY BIG class, I doubt the dozen or so votes would have made a difference.

 

[BobTheCoward]

I know a girl taking a graduate film school class at NYU and she assured me going into the election that just about everyone in her class was pro Bernie. Today she posted a pretty angry facebook update excoriating her classmates for not bothering to vote. Apparently she was the only one in her class that did.

That is really, really infuriating.

I always go back to a paper that argued Republicans are an ideological party and Democrats are a transactional party of coalitions. If the umions get a piece, Latinos get a piece, wall Street gets a piece, lgbt gets a piece, etc

Put them together you get a majority. The liberal ideological wing might not be big enough to override it.

 

[Slings and Arrows]

It's not over

"Jeff Weaver, Sanders' campaign manager, insisted his candidate will fight on following the Tuesday loss. He suggested the campaign would look to flip superdelegates from Clinton to Sanders ahead of the Democratic convention in July.

"Look, we're going to go to the convention," he said on MSNBC. "It is extremely unlikely that either candidate will have the requisite number of pledged delegates to get to this number. … It's going to be an election determined by the superdelegates."

http://www.businessinsider.com/sanders-supporters-disappointed-but-determined-after-new-york-2016-4

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

It's not over

"Jeff Weaver, Sanders' campaign manager, insisted his candidate will fight on following the Tuesday loss. He suggested the campaign would look to flip superdelegates from Clinton to Sanders ahead of the Democratic convention in July.

"Look, we're going to go to the convention," he said on MSNBC. "It is extremely unlikely that either candidate will have the requisite number of pledged delegates to get to this number. … It's going to be an election determined by the superdelegates."

http://www.businessinsider.com/sanders-supporters-disappointed-but-determined-after-new-york-2016-4

Poor guy. I watched him on CNN making a fool of himself trying to make the case they can still run the table while Sanders slunk home to Vermont to lick his wounds. If Sanders insists on dragging this out until next week, or worse until California, I'd have to say he's drinking his own koolaid.

 

[Slings and Arrows]

Poor guy. I watched him on CNN making a fool of himself trying to make the case they can still run the table while Sanders slunk home to Vermont to lick his wounds. If Sanders insists on dragging this out until next week, or worse until California, I'd have to say he's drinking his own koolaid.

Sanders only needs to flip 3 or 4 hundred delegates, and then he's right back in the race. That should be fairly easy to do; a cakewalk.

 

[Travis]

How is he going to get super delegates to ignore the will of the party's voters?

 

[The Don]

Sanders only needs to flip 3 or 4 hundred delegates, and then he's right back in the race. That should be fairly easy to do; a cakewalk.

Are you referring only to the superdelegates or are you suggesting that he may be able to flip delegates who have been democratically chosen ?

In order to be in the game he'd need to do it between now and the convention. Is there precedent for pledged superdelegates or elected delegates flipping before the convention ?

edited to add....

Nevermind I see this relates to superdelegates - should be better at reading .

Is there precedent for previously pledged superdelegates flipping en-masse as would be required in this case ?

 

[Slings and Arrows]

How is he going to get super delegates to ignore the will of the party's voters?

If Sanders had a commanding lead, he might be able to persuade the super delegates to flip. But even then, it would still be a hard sell. What he needs is a few hundred suitcases filled with money; that would probably work.

 

[uke2se]

Are you referring only to the superdelegates or are you suggesting that he may be able to flip delegates who have been democratically chosen ?

In order to be in the game he'd need to do it between now and the convention. Is there precedent for pledged superdelegates or elected delegates flipping before the convention ?

edited to add....

Nevermind I see this relates to superdelegates - should be better at reading .

Is there precedent for previously pledged superdelegates flipping en-masse as would be required in this case ?

I suppose there is, but they always followed the popular vote to my knowledge. That means they'll most likely stay with Clinton.

 

[Tony Stark]

Are you referring only to the superdelegates or are you suggesting that he may be able to flip delegates who have been democratically chosen ?

In order to be in the game he'd need to do it between now and the convention. Is there precedent for pledged superdelegates or elected delegates flipping before the convention ?

edited to add....

Nevermind I see this relates to superdelegates - should be better at reading .

Is there precedent for previously pledged superdelegates flipping en-masse as would be required in this case ?

Lots of superdelegates switched from Hillary to Obama in 2008. Freaking Bill Clinton (he's a superdelegate because he's a former D President) voted for Obama at the convention.

Of course, Obama actually won the primaries, while Bernie has essentially zero chance.

 

[applecorped]

If Sanders had a commanding lead, he might be able to persuade the super delegates to flip. But even then, it would still be a hard sell. What he needs is a few hundred suitcases filled with money; that would probably work.

worked for Hillary

 

[The_Animus]

The problem is that fictional characters are all most people are voting for now. If people aren't willing to hold the representatives they vote for to any firm and principled standards it is simply delusional to think that those representatives will hold themselves accountable to such.

They're not fictional, all of them have faults, none of them will agree with you about every issue. That's called a real person.

What candidate will you now be voting for that doesn't have any of the issues you dismissed all the other candidates for?

 

[Tony Stark]

So now Bernie Sanders isn't a True Progressive according to Trakar? LOL

 

[sunmaster14]

I know a girl taking a graduate film school class at NYU and she assured me going into the election that just about everyone in her class was pro Bernie. Today she posted a pretty angry facebook update excoriating her classmates for not bothering to vote. Apparently she was the only one in her class that did.

That is really, really infuriating.

Agreed. Nags and scolds really are annoying. What business is it of hers if other people choose not to vote? By definition, they had something better to do. They shouldn't have to answer to her sanctimonious dictates.

 

[pgwenthold]

Lots of superdelegates switched from Hillary to Obama in 2008. Freaking Bill Clinton (he's a superdelegate because he's a former D President) voted for Obama at the convention.

Of course, Obama actually won the primaries, while Bernie has essentially zero chance.

IIRC, those "lots of superdelegates" that switched from Hillary to Obama was on the order of 150, so hundreds below what Sanders needs. Moreover, as you noted, the big difference is that they switched BECAUSE OBAMA WON the elected delegates!

Sanders supporters seem to be (now) putting their hopes on super delegates switching their votes to the candidate that lost the battle for elected delegates. Why in the world would they do that? Why SHOULD they do that?

It's like students who come to me before the final and ask, "What do I need to get an B?" We add it up and they need to get 99.5%. So it's doable then? Dude, you haven't gotten higher than 73% on any of the exams I've given so far, why do you expect to all of a sudden get it?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

How is he going to get super delegates to ignore the will of the party's voters?

The Sanders camp is still trying to sell the idea he polls better against Trump and Cruz than Clinton does. It's more fantasy. Not only is it a bad selling point because she wins against both of them as well, but only the Sanders camp believes those numbers would hold when the negative campaign against 'socialist' Sanders starts in earnest.

 

[Donal]

Because they are going to treat Hillary so well. And when she gets in the Oval Office, as those Republicans in Congress will fall over themselves to negotiate with her.