Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread II

[TheL8Elvis]

....and Sanders needs significantly more.

So far, Hillary appears to have a lock on the superdelegates which makes her job significantly easier. Currently there are 1,938 or so delegates remaining and Hillary requires 1,094 of them. She apparently has 469 superdelegates pledged which means that she "only" needs 625 regular delegates.

OTOH Sanders requires 1,345 more delegates and only has 31 superdelegates this means he needs more than double the number of regular delegates that Hillary needs.

Now if the superdelegates picture changes significantly or even reverses then the picture changes considerably but at the moment, Sanders appears to have quite a mountain to climb.

Some numbers for bernie;
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slat...nts_a_contested_convention_for_democrats.html

Bernie has even less of a chance of locking up the nomination ahead of the convention. By my count, he’d need to win a whopping 77 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to reach the magic number without the help of superdelegates. He’d need to win a still-daunting 57 percent of them just to arrive in Philadelphia with more pledged delegates than Clinton—which is central to his case that he deserves the nomination over his establishment-backed rival.* Hitting that mark would take a major reversal of fortunes. To date, Sanders has won only 44 percent of pledged delegates.

 

[wareyin]

Looks like Hillary must claim 65% of remaining delegates to avoid a floor fight...

Can you support this with numbers?

Currently, according to Nate Silver, Clinton has 1,307 pledged delegates, while Sanders has 1,097 pledged delegates. To reach a majority, a candidate needs 2,026, which means Clinton only needs 43.6% of the remaining pledged delegates. (eta:there are currently 1,649 pledged delegates remaining)

If you add in super delegates, Clinton has 477 to Sanders' 38. A Candidate needs 2,383 to win counting supers. Clinton needs 599 more, or 32.4% to reach a total majority.(eta: there are currently 1846 total delegates remaining)

How in the world can you come up with 65% needed for Clinton?

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Looks like Hillary must claim 65% of remaining delegates to avoid a floor fight...

I think you need to check your math.

 

[TheL8Elvis]

Can you support this with numbers?

Currently, according to Nate Silver, Clinton has 1,307 pledged delegates, while Sanders has 1,097 pledged delegates. To reach a majority, a candidate needs 2,026, which means Clinton only needs 43.6% of the remaining pledged delegates. (eta:there are currently 1,649 pledged delegates remaining)

If you add in super delegates, Clinton has 477 to Sanders' 38. A Candidate needs 2,383 to win counting supers. Clinton needs 599 more, or 32.4% to reach a total majority.(eta: there are currently 1846 total delegates remaining)

How in the world can you come up with 65% needed for Clinton?

You forgot the supers. 4,764 delegates total, 1/2=2383

To clarify, Bens "Bernie Math" is for clinton to "need" to secure 1/2 the total delegates without including the any supers.

So they count for the total, just not for their current endorsement.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

You keep forgetting those pesky super delegates!

That's not even true, she's well ahead in votes and pledged delegates. Ben has the numbers reversed. Clinton needs about a third of the remaining delegates as it stands and would need 55% if not a single superdelegate voted for her.

 

[Belz...]

I think you need to check your math.

I think the problem here is ideology, not math.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Can you support this with numbers?

Currently, according to Nate Silver, Clinton has 1,307 pledged delegates, while Sanders has 1,097 pledged delegates. To reach a majority, a candidate needs 2,026, [2383] which means Clinton only needs 43.6% [55%] of the remaining pledged delegates [if you don't count a single superdelegate]. (eta:there are currently 1,649 [1959] pledged delegates remaining)

If you add in super delegates, Clinton has 477 to Sanders' 38. A Candidate needs 2,383 to win counting supers. Clinton needs 599 more, or 32.4% to reach a total majority.(eta: there are currently 1846 total delegates remaining)

How in the world can you come up with 65% needed for Clinton?

Corrections are from using numbers from the NYTs delegate counts.

Do you have a link to Silver's latest tally? If you take all the superdelegates out of the mix you don't get the numbers you've posted. I believe there are a couple hundred uncommitted superdelegates but I'm still having trouble making your numbers match. However that's where I think the difference might be coming from on the remaining delegate count. 1959 - 1649=310 but I don't think that's the number of remaining undeclared superdelegates.

Bottom line doesn't change though, Ben's numbers are way off base.

 

[wareyin]

You forgot the supers. 4,764 delegates total, 1/2=2383

To clarify, Bens "Bernie Math" is for clinton to "need" to secure 1/2 the total delegates without including the any supers.

So they count for the total, just not for their current endorsement.

I didn't realize BenBurch was assuming 100% of the supers would go for Sanders. That explains his math, but it's sad after all the Sanders supporter claims about supers not voting against the popular vote.

 

[lobosrul]

Corrections are from using numbers from the NYTs delegate counts.

Do you have a link to Silver's latest tally? If you take all the superdelegates out of the mix you don't get the numbers you've posted. I believe there are a couple hundred uncommitted superdelegates but I'm still having trouble making your numbers match. However that's where I think the difference might be coming from on the remaining delegate count. 1959 - 1649=310 but I don't think that's the number of remaining undeclared superdelegates.

Bottom line doesn't change though, Ben's numbers are way off base.

NYT's delegates remaining list includes super-delegates. Cali has 475 pledged delegates not 546, for example. Wiki probably has the best list FYI.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democ...d_current_standings_of_primaries_and_caucuses

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

NYT's delegates remaining list includes super-delegates. Cali has 475 pledged delegates not 546, for example.

But there aren't 310 undeclared superdelegates left.

Google search says 714 or 715. 500 have declared their votes. That leaves a few over 200 undeclared.

The math doesn't work one way or the other.

 

[lobosrul]

But there aren't 310 undeclared superdelegates left.

Google search says 714 or 715. 500 have declared their votes. That leaves a few over 200 undeclared.

The math doesn't work one way or the other.

Ah, thats because it doesn't matter when the primary is. Super delegates can declare whenever they feel like it, or wait until the convention.

 

[wareyin]

Corrections are from using numbers from the NYTs delegate counts.

Do you have a link to Silver's latest tally? If you take all the superdelegates out of the mix you don't get the numbers you've posted. I believe there are a couple hundred uncommitted superdelegates but I'm still having trouble making your numbers match. However that's where I think the difference might be coming from on the remaining delegate count. 1959 - 1649=310 but I don't think that's the number of remaining undeclared superdelegates.

Bottom line doesn't change though, Ben's numbers are way off base.

I used the fivethirtyeight nomination tracker, as that seems to be the most up to date for pledged delegates. For the supers, I used the Greenpapers site, as it seems to be the most accurate for supers.

Not counting superdelegates for either side means the first candidate to 2,026 takes it. BenBurch is apparently counting the supers as 100% for Sanders, despite the 477 out of 712 who have endorsed Clinton.

 

[wareyin]

But there aren't 310 undeclared superdelegates left.

Google search says 714 or 715. 500 have declared their votes. That leaves a few over 200 undeclared.

The math doesn't work one way or the other.

There are 715, but only 712 will vote. It's wonky. eta: Supers don't have to endorse when their state has its primary. They can remain undecided up to the convention, which explains the gap.

 

[varwoche]

Many of you seem to be hampered by establishment concepts such as arithmetic. That's not how things work inside the Bernie bubble.

 

[The_Animus]

Anyone know what the delegate count would look like if superdelegates gave their votes to whoever won the most regular delegates in their state?

Can't really tally it up at the moment but might later if time allows.

 

[TheL8Elvis]

But there aren't 310 undeclared superdelegates left.

Google search says 714 or 715. 500 have declared their votes. That leaves a few over 200 undeclared.

The math doesn't work one way or the other.

4,764 delegates total, 1/2=2383
clinton pledged delegates = 1307

2383(total)-1307(clinton pledged)=1076 pledged delegates need to reach 1/2 of the total available delegates.

1647 pledged delegates remain.

Ben claims that Clinton needs to win 1076 pledged delegates of the 1647 pledged delegates remaining in order to ensure that she wins the nomination.

That number is 65%

The unspoken premise is that we ignore the supers - IOW his premise is Clinton needs 65% of remaining to win with just pledged delegates (to avoid a floor fight)

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Ah, thats because it doesn't matter when the primary is. Super delegates can declare whenever they feel like it, or wait until the convention.

You aren't paying attention. Try again.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

I used the fivethirtyeight nomination tracker, as that seems to be the most up to date for pledged delegates. For the supers, I used the Greenpapers site, as it seems to be the most accurate for supers.

Not counting superdelegates for either side means the first candidate to 2,026 takes it. BenBurch is apparently counting the supers as 100% for Sanders, despite the 477 out of 712 who have endorsed Clinton.

OK, delegate counts are the same on both sites. But the NYT site says 2383 are needed to win and Silver says 2026. Sliver's talking about pledged delegates only. That takes out 357 x 2 = 714. Now I get how they differ.

So 2383 - 1307 = 1076 (close enough) which is 45% of the remaining electable delegates. If you include superdelegates in the calculation Clinton needs 32% of the remaining delegates in any combination of super or pledged delegates.

Yeah, silly Ben imagining 100% of supers for Sanders. He forgets Sanders is a bit of an outsider in the Democratic Party and that Clinton has won a majority of states so no matter how you slice the cake, all those supers do not 'belong' to Sanders.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

Anyone know what the delegate count would look like if superdelegates gave their votes to whoever won the most regular delegates in their state?

Can't really tally it up at the moment but might later if time allows.

Clinton would still be well ahead. She is ahead in both popular votes and in numbers of states she had a majority in.

 

[Skeptic Ginger]

4,764 delegates total, 1/2=2383
clinton pledged delegates = 1307

2383(total)-1307(clinton pledged)=1076 pledged delegates need to reach 1/2 of the total available delegates.

1647 pledged delegates remain.

Ben claims that Clinton needs to win 1076 pledged delegates of the 1647 pledged delegates remaining in order to ensure that she wins the nomination.

That number is 65%

The unspoken premise is that we ignore the supers - IOW his premise is Clinton needs 65% of remaining to win with just pledged delegates (to avoid a floor fight)

But that doesn't make sense because it would suggest Sanders only needs 35% of the remaining pledged delegates. What Ben is doing is taking the supers out of the candidates' columns but leaving them in the total needed.

Leaving them in the total for both and taking them out of the candidate columns, Sanders needs 1297 of the remaining pledges or 79% of the remaining pledges. Now you have 65 and 79 which doesn't add up to 100% because the supers are left out of the available delegates.

Glaring math error.