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Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread II

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jhunter1163 said:
Sanders' "momentum" is likely to be undone in New York, and in the high-delegate states voting the following week (PA, NJ and MD, all of which he trails in, and some of which he trails badly in.)
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This is true, which is why a Sander's win in New York would be devastating to Clinton.

But at the moment, it is a longshot. If Sanders doesn't win New York, he'll have to depend on something more exotic, like an FBI recommendation of criminal charges giving him a gigantic win in California.
 
The Panama Papers prove Mr. Sanders was wrong about a trade pact with Panama
SUDDENLY, AND quite improbably, free trade between the United States and tiny Panama is the hot issue on the Democratic side of the presidential campaign, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) calling an Obama administration-backed tariff-slashing pact that took effect four years ago “a disaster.” His complaint is not the usual one about job-killing trade deals; after all, the United States has a multibillion-dollar trade surplus with Panama, just as it did before the pact. This time, Mr. Sanders blames the trade deal for Panama’s allegedly booming offshore banking business for wealthy international tax-avoiders, which has just been exposed in leaked records known as the Panama Papers.

“I predicted that the passage of this disastrous trade deal would make it easier, not harder, for the wealthy and large corporations to evade taxes by sheltering billions of dollars offshore,” Mr. Sanders said in a news release. “I wish I had been proven wrong about this, but it has now come to light that the extent of Panama’s tax avoidance scams is even worse than I had feared.” Quite a contrast, he says, with Hillary Clinton, who helped push the deal through Congress as Mr. Obama’s secretary of state.....
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But he spoke too soon, should have waited until the facts came out:
Data culled from the documents by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, and presented in several charts on the group’s website, show that the Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca, which specialized in setting up offshore accounts and shell companies for wealthy people, has been steadily reducing its activity in Panama for about a decade. As it happens, the decline began about the time the Bush administration and Panama began discussing a free-trade pact — and accelerated after the deal took effect during Mr. Obama’s first term.

Specifically, the number of offshore incorporations fell from 4,741 in 2005 to 835 in 2015. Most important, as of last year Mossack Fonseca appeared to have nearly completely ceased incorporating the least transparent form of company — known as “bearer shares” — which often don’t need to register an owner’s name.
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And the more I let that sink in, something else comes to mind. Sanders has been against trade agreements regardless of the details. According to that WA Po article there were no jobs lost with the Panama trade deal, and since it didn't make the financial fraud worse as he claims, well, just what was Sanders' objection to the Panama trade deal?
 
jhunter1163 said:
Sanders' "momentum" is likely to be undone in New York, and in the high-delegate states voting the following week (PA, NJ and MD, all of which he trails in, and some of which he trails badly in.)
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Very likely indeed. With the sole exception of Pennsylvania, underlying demographics favor Clinton quite heavily in the next several contests.
 
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Skeptic Ginger said:
And yet the polls show Clinton ahead in NY and Sanders has just had two bad days of NY press.

Dream on.
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BenBurch said:
We are going to destroy your dreams.
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ork_democratic_presidential_primary-4221.html

NBC/WSJ/Marist 4/6 - 4/10 557 LV 4.2 55 41 Clinton +14
Monmouth 4/8 - 4/10 302 LV 5.6 51 39 Clinton +12
Emerson 4/6 - 4/7 325 LV 5.4 56 38 Clinton +18
FOX News 4/4 - 4/7 801 LV 3.5 53 37 Clinton +16
CBS News/YouGov3/29 - 4/1 718 LV 5.0 53 43 Clinton +10
 
From my favorite video game "Tropico" I know that nothing boosts an election in a Banana Republic in your favour like a last minute pope visit. So Bernie really is invited to speak four days before the NY primary in the Vatican, together with the house owner and the fabulous one and only Evo Morales about social justice? Wow. Better check every bolt of that plane twice, Team Bernie! :)
 
Sanders big problem in getting his minions to the polls in NY with big rallies now:

It's too late for new voters to register to vote in the primaries and it's too late for registered independents to change their party affiliation. So only some of the people rallying for Sanders will be able to actually vote for him.

Sanders' camp is already lowering expectations for NY the same way Clinton did in WI.
 
Originally Posted by 16.5
On Wisconsin! on Wisconsin!

Feel the Bern!
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Maya22 said:
Do you also have a Team Red favorite?
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16.5, it has been several days, and you still haven't answered my question. I'm not trying to be a bully. I'm just wondering if you have a favorite Republican. A simple yes or no is fine,
 
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Childlike Empress said:
From my favorite video game "Tropico" I know that nothing boosts an election in a Banana Republic in your favour like a last minute pope visit. So Bernie really is invited to speak four days before the NY primary in the Vatican, together with the house owner and the fabulous one and only Evo Morales about social justice? Wow. Better check every bolt of that plane twice, Team Bernie! :)
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I love Tropico!
 
Maya22 said:
Originally Posted by 16.5

16.5, it has been several days, and you still haven't answered my question. I'm not trying to be a bully. I'm just wondering if you have a favorite Republican. A simple yes or no is fine,
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No
 
BenBurch said:
Looks like Hillary must claim 65% of remaining delegates to avoid a floor fight...
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....and Sanders needs significantly more.

So far, Hillary appears to have a lock on the superdelegates which makes her job significantly easier. Currently there are 1,938 or so delegates remaining and Hillary requires 1,094 of them. She apparently has 469 superdelegates pledged which means that she "only" needs 625 regular delegates.

OTOH Sanders requires 1,345 more delegates and only has 31 superdelegates this means he needs more than double the number of regular delegates that Hillary needs.

Now if the superdelegates picture changes significantly or even reverses then the picture changes considerably but at the moment, Sanders appears to have quite a mountain to climb.
 
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