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Bullish on Bernie: The Bernie Sanders 2016 Thread II

No one is claiming she isn't. The claim is she MIGHT NOT win the popular vote. If she doesn't and Bernie has a majority of pledged delegates, the super-delegates won't matter. A majority of the Democratic electorate is not going to sit idly by while the nominee with the most votes and pledged delegates loses in some backroom deal. The DNC is not that stupid. The superdelegates will support whoever wins the pledged delegates, unless they want to see if they can top the Chicago convention of 68.


Actually, I believe it is, or at least a substantial fraction of it is.

Inquiries sent to superdelegates by voters in states where Sanders has won by very large margins, including mine (which is a large and diverse state), has resulted in those superdelegates responding that they will be voting for Clinton regardless of the outcome of the popular vote.

So even IF Sanders can pick up sufficient popular votes to win a majority of pledged delegates; the superdelegates are clearly going to hand the convention to Clinton if at all possible. And it is effectively impossible for Sanders to pick up enough pledged delegates to override the superdelegates at this point in the race.

IF that happens, then there is going to be a huge backlash against the Democratic party by the progressive left. The Dem establishment will effectively alienate their progressive ranks, who will simply refuse to vote. There is already a lot of noise being made in that direction among progressive voters. The Dems would be cutting their own throat if they did that, particularly if Clinton ends up facing Cruz, or worse yet, Kasich, in the general. Given how badly Trump is imploding at the moment, it's highly likely that whoever gets the Dem nomination is going to end up facing Cruz, with Kasich a much smaller possibility.
 
Given one doesn't note party when registering in Vermont, then what makes Senator Leahy a Democrat? Is it because he ran as a Democrat? And if that's the case then doesn't that make Sanders a Democrat since he is running as a Democrat?

The same can be said in the dozen other states that don't note party affiliation on voter registrations. The semantic hoops here over the words, "registered party in the state voter registration" would mean the state voter registration was how one joined one's political party. And that isn't the exclusive means of being registered as a Democrat.

Cool. That wasn't too clear above.
 
Nobody seems to know for sure what Sanders is, even his campaign adviser. Transcript of Hardball show in November:

CM: He’s an Independent in the caucus. He is a member of the Democratic Caucus in the Senate, but he’s not a member He’s an Independent member of the Democratic caucus of the Senate, but he’s not a member of the caucus.
Devine: He’s a member of the Democratic Caucus.
CM: But he’s not a Democrat.
Devine: He’s running as a Democrat for President of the United States. He signed an affidavit.
CM: Ok. I personally – don’t argue with me it’s a weird situation. He’s now a Democrat because in the past he’s ran against Democrats. He ran against Democrats for mayor. He ran against Democrats for Congress.
Devine: In this campaign, he decided to run for the Democratic Party nomination. He’s running as a Democrat.
CM: He is a Democrat.
Devine: Yes.
Devine: Yes – I’m glad we resolved that.
CM: Well, I didn’t know he changed parties. He..
Devine: He didn’t change party. If he could register he would, but he can’t.
CM: I think that’s a technical point. I’ll take him at his word. He’s a socialist which is fine with me.
Devine: He’s a Democratic Socialist.

http://www.politicususa.com/2015/11/03/time-bernie-sanders-campaign-confirms-democrat.html
 
So even IF Sanders can pick up sufficient popular votes to win a majority of pledged delegates; the superdelegates are clearly going to hand the convention to Clinton if at all possible.

Isn't a bias towards the party establishment the raison d'être of superdelegates?
 
Ironically, the same day I was citing polls about Clinton's dishonesty, she tells one of the biggest whoppers of the primary on MTP:

""I'm the only candidate in the Democratic primary, or actually on either side, who Wall Street financiers and hedge fund managers are actually running ads against."
— Hillary Clinton on Sunday, April 3rd, 2016 in comments on Meet the Press
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...y-clinton-claims-meet-press-wall-street-atta/
 
One thing for sure,...Carville is ready for the pasture.

Looked like a zombified version of my father imitating Boomhauer on All in with Chris Hayes. It would have been funny if it wasn't so sad, I used to actually admire and like him, age isn't kind to most of us.
 
Mandating GMO bans, phasing out or eliminating nuclear power generation, discovering his hidden inner Zionist, there are actually a huge number of things that Sanders could do to lose my support

More from Sanders about ending nuclear power in the US:

"Even in a perfect world where energy companies didn't make mistakes, nuclear power is and always has been a dangerous idea because there is no good way to store nuclear waste," Sanders said. "That is why the United States must lead the world in transforming our energy system away from nuclear power and fossil fuels."

Sanders is the only candidate in either party who wants to end nuclear energy production, which currently accounts for 20% of U.S. electrical generation."

It is sad when a candidate who claims to care about climate change would do more damage if he got his way than candidates who deny climate change exists.
 
More from Sanders about ending nuclear power in the US:

"Even in a perfect world where energy companies didn't make mistakes, nuclear power is and always has been a dangerous idea because there is no good way to store nuclear waste," Sanders said. "That is why the United States must lead the world in transforming our energy system away from nuclear power and fossil fuels."

Sanders is the only candidate in either party who wants to end nuclear energy production, which currently accounts for 20% of U.S. electrical generation."

It is sad when a candidate who claims to care about climate change would do more damage if he got his way than candidates who deny climate change exists.

He is under-informed, and or misinformed on the topic, if this is an accurate statement. Nuclear power should definitely be heavily regulated if not publically owned and managed, but the only thing dangerous about nuclear power is putting it in the hands of those who are more interested in profit than safe, cheap electric power. I have no problem with the decommissioning of nuclear power plants that are unsafe such as the one at Indian Point, as well as most of the other older II and III generation nuclear power plants that are at or beyond their design life, and showing their age and design limitations and liabilities, as are most nuclear power plants in this nation. There is a big difference between saying that nuclear power shouldn't be done as it has been done in the US for the last 60 or so years and saying that nuclear power should not have a place in the US energy future.

I'll have to look into this in more depth but if this is his personal consideration it would definitely impact my support. Unfortunately that would leave me back to trying to figure out who I could and should support in the fall election, and I don't see any other candidates who wouldn't do more harm than good in the running.
 
Definitely. Protecting the establishment is much more important than serving the people who elect them.
Protecting the establishment from mass movements originating from outside the party is serving the people, in the view of those who distrust revolutionary mass movements.

Bet the GOP wishes they had superdelegates around now.
 
Nuclear power should definitely be heavily regulated if not publically owned and managed, but the only thing dangerous about nuclear power is putting it in the hands of those who are more interested in profit than safe, cheap electric power.


So, pretty much everyone in the energy industry then.

Mostly joking, since I do support nuclear power. That's one of the few areas where I disagree with Sanders. Unfortunately, NIMBYism and the ignorant anti-nuke crowd has made it very difficult to get new reactors up and running.
 
Dems on track to lose election

Interesting recent article from HuffPo about the current standing of the Democratic and Republican candidates.

The Democrats Are Flawlessly Executing a 10-Point Plan to Lose the 2016 Presidential Election

Gotta say, this jives well with what I've been hearing in the news; and what I've been hearing from the various liberal voters, Democrat and Independent, of my acquaintance and elsewhere.

Neither the Dems or GOP have really understood the nature of this election, and why both Sanders and Trump have garnered the support that they have. The parties are still trying to fight it business-as-usual; thought the GOP is getting the clue faster than the Dems. Trump is highly unlikely to be the nominee at this point, as Cruz is projected to start making bigger wins, thanks to Trump repeatedly sabotaging himself every time he opens his mouth. Kasich is also staying strong in the race, siphoning even more votes off Trump. This is most likely going to be a contested convention; and there's no way the GOP will allow Trump to get the nomination under those circumstances.

Unfortunately for Clinton, she is also starting to self-sabotage, and is equally clueless about the voters who will make up a critical bloc in the general election. She's losing, sometimes big, in states that will be more important in the general, while holding on to states that historically have voted predominantly Republican. Her resort to negative campaigning and outright fabrication, combined with various gaffes, has resulted in increasingly negative favourability ratings. That, combined with the ongoing FBI investigation is making her increasingly weak against all the GOP frontrunners. Further, her tone deafness and unwillingness to acknowledge the concerns of the younger voters who are becoming an increasingly important voting bloc (and who are currently forming the backbone of Sanders' support). Her reliance on the superdelegate system is also making her look more anti-populist and favouring the elitist establishment, which again is hurting her among working class and younger voters.

At this point, unless Clinton makes some huge changes to her campaign strategy, she is likely to lose the popular primary, and reliance on superdelegates could cost her the general as well; especially if the GOP managed to pick Kasich over Cruz as their candidate. The GOP has a serious hate on for her, and is likely to really hammer her on the FBI investigation if it is not wrapped up in her favour before the general.
 
Yep, if one's home state voter registration determined the party you ran for, nobody from Washington state would ever gain office, since registration here doesn't include party affiliation.

This can make things really odd - last election cycle I started getting begs from the GOP in my email, because I was a "long-term Republican". I finally realized they'd tracked me down from the 1980 election, when I caucused for John Anderson, who was running as a Republican at that point (switched to independent later on).

That means they'd correlated my maiden name and current name, and matched it to my email address, 32 years later, in the hopes of raising funds from me - and Anderson was the only time I've ever supported a GOP presidential candidate. Desperate? Alarming? Or both?
 
Interesting recent article from HuffPo about the current standing of the Democratic and Republican candidates.

The Democrats Are Flawlessly Executing a 10-Point Plan to Lose the 2016 Presidential Election
...
From the link:
1. Assume that Donald Trump will be the Republicans’ 2016 nominee, though it’s now clear he won’t be.
That's a tad premature.
2. Nominate the only person who can reunite the Republican Party once Trump failing to get the nomination has fractured it beyond repair.
Same old same old... The right wing hate the welfare state and socialism with a passion. And more than a few right wing women can empathize with the unfair attacks on Clinton. Some of the GOP women may very well vote Clinton, especially the more moderate among them.

See, I can come up with a scenario too.

3. Fracture the Democratic Party by broadly supporting the Clinton camp’s attempts to smear Bernie Sanders and his supporters.
Wow, that's some warped perception of the facts.

You don't hear many Clinton supporters saying if Sanders wins they won't support him. But some Sanders supporters are rabid Clinton haters. Like Susan Sarandon saying she might vote for Trump to speed the revolution. :rolleyes: Even she recognized how bad that was and took it back but a lot of Sanders supporters have absolute hatred toward Clinton.

4. Fatally underestimate the electoral chances of the two men now most likely to be the Republican presidential nominee in November: Ted Cruz and John Kasich.
That's nothing but a repeat of #1. Guess they are trying to pad the list, or maybe they wanted a round number.

Cruz is beatable, he's too far to the right. Kasich remains an unknown but it's unlikely he's going to win.

5. Fail to nominate their most popular candidate, in particular the one with the best chance of beating Ted Cruz or John Kasich in the fall.
So we should nominate the guy that is losing? :rolleyes:

6. Freeze one of the most popular Democrats nationally, Bernie Sanders, out of the picture altogether.
That's absurd. It's not happening at all.

7. Reject Sanders’ call for a fifty-state general-election campaign.
IOW, reject the actual winner and nominate Sanders despite his losing the primary based on some imaginary formula that he can win the blue states. But the blue states are not going to vote for Trump or Cruz.

8. Do nothing whatsoever to address outstanding concerns about the character, integrity, and judgment of the Party’s front-runner.
An outright falsehood even without the hyperbole.

9. Over-rely on the national media to set the political narrative for the campaign season, further alienating voters who want to vote for a candidate with vision.
And the Democrats are controlling this how?

10. Ignore the youth vote.
Not on purpose. But here again are Sanders supporters saying he should win when he is losing.


I hate to use the analogy of imagining-they-are-persecuted Christians, but it does smack of that sometimes. For example:
News coverage is up, but 'Bernie blackout' is a rallying cry for Sanders supporters
Sanders did receive less coverage than Clinton in 2015. At the time, he had not yet won anything, and she was receiving intense media scrutiny over her use of a private server to handle email while she was secretary of State and over Republican accusations that she acted wrongly in connection with the deaths of four Americans in the attack on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012.

Since the start of this year, the two have received very similar amounts of coverage, according to data from the Internet Archive's presidential tracker project, which logs all candidate mentions on news shows and a variety of other programs. Each currently accounts for about 15% of all mentions of a candidate on TV, the tracking data indicate.

Another study, by researchers at the USC Annenberg Center on Communication Leadership and Policy, also found rough parity between the two.

Ev Boyle, the associate director of the center, and a group of researchers spent a week counting every mention of a candidate on 14 major news websites, including latimes.com.

"The Bernie Blackout isn't really a thing," Boyle concluded, noting that Sanders had close to the same level of coverage as Clinton, although both were far behind Trump.

All the attention to the volume of attention implies, of course, that more coverage is always good for a campaign. That's seldom actually true, as the scrutiny of Clinton's email demonstrates.
The data from two different media researchers provides evidence Sanders supporters are not perceiving reality in focus.

Mostly the news media, especially CNN and MSNBC, want Sanders to be doing well, it's better for their bottom line and their need to not get boring. If the race is over, how are they going to keep the audience interested 24/7 when all they are talking about is the primary?

It really shows with the most recent coverage, talking like Sanders is pulling ahead in NY when he's still double digits behind in the polls. Noting he had a big crowd in Brooklyn, diminishing the number of people who showed up for Clinton at the Apollo describing it as "a few hundred" when it was well over 1,000 and not mentioning only half the hall was filled at the last Sanders event in Milwaukee.

There is no way the news favors Clinton over Sanders. But I see it claimed again and again on this and other forums.
 
Yep, if one's home state voter registration determined the party you ran for, nobody from Washington state would ever gain office, since registration here doesn't include party affiliation.

This can make things really odd - last election cycle I started getting begs from the GOP in my email, because I was a "long-term Republican". I finally realized they'd tracked me down from the 1980 election, when I caucused for John Anderson, who was running as a Republican at that point (switched to independent later on).

That means they'd correlated my maiden name and current name, and matched it to my email address, 32 years later, in the hopes of raising funds from me - and Anderson was the only time I've ever supported a GOP presidential candidate. Desperate? Alarming? Or both?

Yes they are... I had no idea how much until I watched Jon Oliver's piece last week:



Warning, the video may cause nausea. But remember money is speech... so expecting our congressmen to not waste a third of their time on fundraising is against the 1st Amendment or something.
 
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I hate to use the analogy of imagining-they-are-persecuted Christians, but it does smack of that sometimes. For example:
News coverage is up, but 'Bernie blackout' is a rallying cry for Sanders supporters


I have no dog in this fight, but in an effort to exercise some basic critical thinking and skepticism, I took a look at the item linked above, which takes one to a Los Angles Times news article, selected portions of which Skeptic Ginger quoted in her post.

Now, in regards to this specific quotation...

Since the start of this year, the two have received very similar amounts of coverage, according to data from the Internet Archive's presidential tracker project, which logs all candidate mentions on news shows and a variety of other programs. Each currently accounts for about 15% of all mentions of a candidate on TV, the tracking data indicate.


...the version at the LA Times has an embedded link behind the portion bolded in the above. One would expect said link to go directly to the Internet Archive's presidential tracker project, or something summarizing its data and results. It does not. Rather, it goes to this page at the Pew Research Center. When one goes through the (somewhat lengthy) article on that page, one finds no mention whatsoever of Internet Archive or any presidential press coverage tracking. There is a section about voters' perception of news coverage for each candidate, but voter perception of coverage of a candidate is not the same as actual coverage a candidate has received.

So, I'm wondering why this particular link was given in the LA Times article as if it was a source for the part mentioned in the article quotation, considering that it most assuredly is not. Was this simply a mistake? Was it a misunderstanding of the Pew Research Center article page? Or was it a deliberate attempt to mislead readers by putting in a source link but hoping no one would actually click the link to see that it doesn't actually relate to the specific subject to which the embedded link refers?


I next turned my attention to the other study mentioned in the LA Times article. The embedded link for that does go to the correct page, with an article on that study by the study's author (Boyle).

But both the LA Times piece and the offered source link written by Boyle mention the same limitation of this study: it only examined a one-week (seven day) period of news coverage. A seven-day sample from a months-long campaign would not, to me at least, seem to be much in the way of a proper sample size from which to draw any meaningful conclusion over the amount of coverage granted to Clinton as compared to Sanders.

Furthermore, in the LA Times article (which quoted from Boyle's piece) says this:

"The Bernie Blackout isn't really a thing," Boyle concluded, noting that Sanders had close to the same level of coverage as Clinton, although both were far behind Trump.


Yet when one actually looks at the graph ("Media Coverage of the Presidential Candidates") given in Boyle's article, classifying the result as "close to the same level" of coverage for Sanders as compared to Clinton seems a rather generous interpretation. The graph (sadly, only a graph is available, not the specific numbers) shows that Clinton had some 40% more news coverage than Sanders. How a 40% advantage translates into "close to the same level" is, apparently, left as an exercise for the (skeptical) reader.
 
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Interesting recent article from HuffPo about the current standing of the Democratic and Republican candidates.
A blog entry from an avid Sanders supporter. <gaping yawn>

This [GOP nomination] is most likely going to be a contested convention; and there's no way the GOP will allow Trump to get the nomination under those circumstances.
You may well be right. If they wind up nominating Kasich or Ryan or someone equally palatable to the masses, I expect the dem to lose, be it Clinton or Sanders.

She's losing, sometimes big, in states that will be more important in the general, while holding on to states that historically have voted predominantly Republican.
I worked in a cherry orchard as a kid, and I have to tip my hat, what with you ignoring the two most important swing states -- Florida and Ohio.

Her reliance on the superdelegate system is also making her look more anti-populist and favouring the elitist establishment, which again is hurting her among working class and younger voters.
Maybe you should wait until this actually happens before condemning Clinton. :boggled:
 

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