Brexit: the referendum

ceptimus said:
I'll concede that the UK trading with the EU after an unlikely Brexit will probably cost more.

But you need to offset that against all the trade not with the EU.

There's the trade that happens just within the UK which should be slightly less costly due to not having to comply with EU bureaucracy - remember that many small firms here don't export anything.

And there's the trade with the rest of the world which could be cheaper - as it will no longer carry the burden of EU tariffs.
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If you don't want to comply with EU regs then you are effectively saying that you don't want the kind of free-trade arrangement enjoyed by the likes of the Swiss and Norway.

All the trade not with the EU will also be impacted for several reasons - firstly they are probably going to want you to comply with EU regs or similar or put in place your own regs that are equal to ensure standards are met, secondly the EU trade arrangements in place (e.g the FTA with Korea) would be lost and would have to be renegotiated from a much weaker position.

So I think most exports would suffer, domestic business would probably be a wash as I don't see much reduction in admin burden although there could be some, and the only possible benefit would be the opportunity to allow non-EU imports more freely which probably doesn't really help businesses here and I doubt would be encouraged by government.

If its purely in terms of trade its hard to make any sort of case for Brexit I think.
 
Darat said:
But they really don't now, what they have to comply with is UK bureaucracy.
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If this were true (it isn't), then:

Darat said:
Why would leaving the EU get rid of that?
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It wouldn't. But because the first statement is patently false, the answer to the question is "if we left the EU, we wouldn't be subject to EU bureaucracy in the same way as at present".
 
MikeG said:
If this were true (it isn't), then:



It wouldn't. But because the first statement is patently false, the answer to the question is "if we left the EU, we wouldn't be subject to EU bureaucracy in the same way as at present".
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OK then what is this "EU bureaucracy"? (I suspect you are using a different definition than I am so starting with what we mean may be a good idea.)
 
Lothian said:
........it misses the point that is not as important as trade with the EU is to us.
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And our trade with the EU is less important to us than is our trade with the rest of the world. And it's falling.

Lothian said:
........Why would the EU go out of their way to assist a country who left the EU doesn't contribute and doesn't allow EU citizens free movement........
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because it's in their own best interests. They want to sell us stuff.
 
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Darat said:
OK then what is this "EU bureaucracy"? (I suspect you are using a different definition than I am so starting with what we mean may be a good idea.)
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Let's start with what the UK Chambers of Commerce say on the matter. They should know, after all, as they represent business:

It is argued that the EU has created extra layers of bureaucracy whilst taking away decision making process further from local communities. For example, the British Chambers of Commerce has estimated that the annual cost to the UK of EU regulation is £7.4bn. ......
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Then there is HM Government's own report on the matter (and don't forget, they're pro Remain):
When US companies can get new products licensed and to market in days, it should not take weeks or months in Europe. When small and medium-sized enterprises are crucial to creating new jobs, it doesn’t make sense for the EU to extract £300 million from UK businesses alone to implement new data protection rules. When innovation is so important for future businesses, it is self-defeating that new EU regulations have accompanied a 25% drop in biomedical research, and that complex and diverse rules on sales, promotions, labelling and web content hamper e-commerce.
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MikeG said:
And our trade with the EU is less important to us than our trade with the rest of the world. And it's falling.

because it's in their own best interests. They want to sell us stuff.
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They don't offer what you are suggesting to any other country. Why might that be? Does the EU not want to sell to them? Perhaps the reason why they doesn't offer those terms to anyone else may give a clue why we won't get it either.

The tariff on cars imported into Europe from America is 10%. How can that be? Does Europe not want to sell cars to America ?
 
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Lothian said:
They don't offer what you are suggesting to any other country. Why might that be?........
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This is one of the fundamentals of what is wrong with the EU. Thanks for bringing it up. They offer trade barriers and protectionism, and try to cosset their own industries at the cost of those outside, leading to a less competitive business environment in the EU than it would be otherwise. Tying a trading nation to an organisation which is inward looking and uncompetitive, has trade barriers with the rest of the world, and has major structural issues with its internal economies and the single currency might be a good idea in your eyes. Not everyone agrees with you.
 
MikeG said:
<snip>

Then there is HM Government's own report on the matter (and don't forget, they're pro Remain):


Quote:
When US companies can get new products licensed and to market in days, it should not take weeks or months in Europe. When small and medium-sized enterprises are crucial to creating new jobs, it doesn’t make sense for the EU to extract £300 million from UK businesses alone to implement new data protection rules. When innovation is so important for future businesses, it is self-defeating that new EU regulations have accompanied a 25% drop in biomedical research, and that complex and diverse rules on sales, promotions, labelling and web content hamper e-commerce.
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Do you have a few examples of this phenomenon? I don't believe it is particularly common.

U.S. companies generally (constantly?) piss and moan about how hard it is to get new products licensed and to market. Not infrequently they make threatening noises about moving their businesses off-shore if they aren't relieved of the intolerable burden of U.S. regulation. It is embroidered permanently into the flag of economic conservatism.

Maybe your government knows something they don't. They should offer advice.
 
MikeG said:
This is one of the fundamentals of what is wrong with the EU. Thanks for bringing it up. They offer trade barriers and protectionism, and try to cosset their own industries at the cost of those outside, leading to a less competitive business environment in the EU than it would be otherwise. Tying a trading nation to an organisation which is inward looking and uncompetitive, has trade barriers with the rest of the world, and has major structural issues with its internal economies and the single currency might be a good idea in your eyes. Not everyone agrees with you.
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One minute the EU is an organisation which will do what it can to drop trade barriers in order to trade with a country outside the EU, next minute it sets up trade barriers to protect its businesses. But hey, as long as it is EU bashing who needs consistency?
 
Why do so many of you hold this Panglossian view of the EU? Is this just fear of change? Surely the EU can't be all for the best in the best of all possible worlds? There are surely better ways of doing things.

The EU is a behemoth organisation, slow to react, largely undemocratic and unaccounted. Look at the protracted efforts made by the Prime Minister and his team over many months, culminating in the inevitable all-night discussions to achieve the pitiful 'reforms' he's based his recommendation to 'remain' upon. Is this really the sort of organisation we want to tie ourselves to for the next generation?

It's not topical to mention the common agricultural policy and fisheries policy lately but they are still just as costly and inefficient as they ever were. There is also the ongoing Euro crisis, which has been repeatedly swept under the rug, but will surely have to be addressed eventually.

The 'remain' groups have pushed for the referendum to be held as early as feasibly possible. They are hoping that the collapse of the Euro and the mass migration crisis can be held off until after we have voted to remain.
 
quadraginta said:
I'm asking you because you quoted it. I assumed you had a reason, and even some agreement with its veracity.

Was it just something you plucked at random from the 'net?
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The claim from Darat was that there was no EU bureaucracy, it was all UK bureaucracy. I went to the government's own report on the problems caused by EU bureaucracy and posted part of its executive summary to demonstrate that not only there is bureaucracy from the EU (who'd've thought it, hey?), but that it has a deleterious effect on our economy. If you think that there is a better way to deal with straight forward assertions of fact than to cite evidence showing it wrong, then I'm all ears.
 
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Lothian said:
One minute the EU is an organisation which will do what it can to drop trade barriers in order to trade with a country outside the EU, next minute it sets up trade barriers to protect its businesses.
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The other way around, but don't let the facts get in your way. Can you tell us about the trade barriers it has erected with Norway?

Lothian said:
But hey, as long as it is EU bashing who needs consistency?
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Aaaah, diddums. Someone doesn't agree with you.
 
MikeG said:
The other way around, but don't let the facts get in your way. Can you tell us about the trade barriers it has erected with Norway?
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Norway pays a similar amount per head as we do and accepts free movement of people, basically full membership of the EU without any say in the running of it. It that the Brexit model you propose? It is not the one put forward by any Brexit opponent I am aware of.
Aaaah, diddums. Someone doesn't agree with you.
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lots of people don't agree with me. Most don't contradict themselves especially to do so.
 
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Lothian said:
Norway pays a similar amount per head as we do and accepts free movement of people, basically full membership of the EU without any say in the running of it. It that the Brexit model you propose? It is not the one put forward by any Brexit opponent I am aware of.
lots of people don't agree with me. Most don't contradict themselves especially to do so.
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So, you're unable to answer the question about the tariffs imposed by the EU on Norway. I see. You've nothing substantive to say.
 
MikeG said:
So, you're unable to answer the question about the tariffs imposed by the EU on Norway. I see. You've nothing substantive to say.
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They have free movement of most goods, but not all. For example Norwegian Salmon has a 12% tariff. However I don't see how it is relevant as Norway pays a high cost to trade with the EU. That cost includes elements unacceptable to the Brexit campaign.

Are you advocating the Norway model?

Incidentally Botswana goods have no Tarrif, perhaps we should aim for that model?
 
Lothian said:
They have free movement of most goods.....
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We get there, in the end. So whilst this arrangement is possible for Norway (27th largest economy in the world) to negotiate, it wouldn't be possible for the UK (5th biggest economy in the world) to negotiate. I see.
 
MikeG said:
We get there, in the end. So whilst this arrangement is possible for Norway (27th largest economy in the world) to negotiate, it wouldn't be possible for the UK (5th biggest economy in the world) to negotiate. I see.
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Of course we can negotiate. We could get the Norwegian model, where we pay what we do now allow free movement of people subject ourselves to EU regulations but have no say in the rules.

I am shocked you think this would be a good outcome.
 
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