Brexit: the referendum

Lothian said:
.......there will be tariffs of some kind......
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Really? I don't think there will. Can you imagine BMW being told that their cars will be X% more expensive in Britain after Brexit and tolerating it? I'll stick my neck out now and say that if there is a Brexit, there won't be any additional tarrifs in trade between the EU and britain afterwards.
 
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Garrison said:
........this time it will work because....
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I hope you're not asking me. I haven't claimed it would. At the moment I am simply a fence sitter. One of the 30% undecided. I'm just commenting on the bias in a lot of posts here, which present only one side of (in my view) a fairly well-balanced equation. If everyone keeps posting "stay" propaganda, I'll be posting, in as neutral language as I can manage, the opposite point of view, which doesn't for a second mean I support that opposite point of view.
 
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MikeG said:
Really? I don't think there will. Can you imagine BMW being told that their cars will be X% more expensive in Britain after Brexit and tolerating it? I'll stick my neck out now and say that if their is a Brexit, their won't be any additional tarrifs in trade between the EU and britain afterwards.
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Did you pick BMW deliberately? I read them disagreeing with you .

"The heads of six British companies owned by German car giant BMW, including Rolls-Royce and Mini, have warned thousands of staff that jobs could be affected if the UK decides to leave the European Union, according to a report.

A letter to Rolls-Royce employees, which was leaked to the Guardian newspaper, warned trade tariffs could mean “higher costs and higher prices”. As a result, the firm’s “employment base could also be affected”, chief executive Torsten Muller-Otvos wrote. "

From the indy

Are you aware of any agreement the EU has with any developed country that has no tariffs?
 
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Why do you think BMW might want to release a story like that? Hmm?

Because it is in their interest to have the UK remain a member. It is nothing to do with the subject of a post-Brexit negotiation. This is nothing other than propaganda.
 
MikeG said:
Why do you think BMW might want to release a story like that? Hmm?

Because it is in their interest to have the UK remain a member. It is nothing to do with the subject of a post-Brexit negotiation. This is nothing other than propaganda.
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They might release such a story as every developed country that has a trade agreement with the EU has tariffs of some form.

Put another way. They may release the story as it will cost them as a company money and that will hit the share price. However this begs the question as to how it could possibly cost BMW money if it is in everyone's interests to have free trade and post brexit business won't change.

By all means play devil's advocate from your reported "fence sitting position" but please try to come up with sensible comments supported by evidence. If you want to dismiss it as "propaganda" you need to explain why and how it benefits BMW for the UK to remain in the EU.

I agree this is not a clear cut decision. There will be some benefits to the UK of a Brexit. Perhaps listing them might balance the thread better than simply dismissing the opinions of those on the pro-side with comments like "propaganda" and "I have never heard..."
 
MikeG said:
You forgot to mention that the EU would have to follow the UK's rules, too, and without having any power to influence them. You also forgot to mention that Britain is a more important trading partner to the rest of Europe than the rest of Europe is to the UK, so there may actually be some incentive for the EU to do a prompt (ie 2 years, as set out by Treaty) deal. Why would anyone leave out such salient points from any sort of balanced comment on EU exit negotiations?
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This seems to seriously overegg the British pudding in regards to its negotiating strength.

Of course you would have to look at a number of complex factors but Britain is nowhere near more important to the EU than the EU is to Britain by any sensible measure.

You would need to look at the details in more depth to understand what would be affected and what wouldn't be. You would also have to consider the likely impact on Brexit on UK production.

BMW might not be all that worried about UK tariffs on their exec cars because their main competitors will all face the same issue. They might be more concerned about their Mini production not having ready access to Europe and those non-EU markets with which the EU has a trade deal. They might decide it makes more sense to build Minis in Germany or Romania. Ditto Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc.

The UK is less than 10% of the population of Europe. Access to 700m people is generally more of an incentive than access to 65m.

Of course there will be some areas where the UK does have the upper hand but there won't be a hell of a lot of them.
 
Lothian said:
.........try to come up with sensible comments supported by evidence. If you want to dismiss it as "propaganda" you need to explain why and how it benefits BMW for the UK to remain in the EU..........
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Absolutely no need for this. As this comes from the guy who plucked (unsupported) erroneous 60% and 10% figures for trade straight out of fresh air, which I politely and carefully refuted with multiple links, I'll take no lessons from you.

Let me spell it out simply. It is BMW's perception that they would rather have Britain inside the UK because they sell us lots of cars. If we were to leave, they can't be certain that they would be able to trade with us on the same terms. Naturally, therefore, they do what they can to help the Remain case. However, if Brexit were to happen, they would then presumably be involved in lobbying to get the best possible trade terms between Britain and remnant EU so that they could continue selling us lots of cars.

None of that is very difficult to understand, and I don't think you are struggling with it. I can only conclude that you are more interested in playing word games and attempting gotcha moments for some point-scoring game going on in your head than in having a polite and sensible conversation.
 
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Lothian said:
........By all means play devil's advocate........."
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You don't understand this phrase. I am not playing Devil's advocate. I am countering the arguments which are almost entirely from the Remain side of the debate. There is a big difference between playing DA (arguing for a position opposite to that which you hold), and arguing for a position opposite to that which your interlocutors hold.
 
MikeG said:
Absolutely no need for this. As this comes from the guy who plucked (unsupported) erroneous 60% and 10% figures for trade straight out of fresh air, which I politely and carefully refuted with multiple links, I'll take no lessons from you.

Let me spell it out simply. It is BMW's perception that they would rather have Britain inside the UK because they sell us lots of cars. If we were to leave, they can't be certain that they would be able to trade with us on the same terms. Naturally, therefore, they do what they can to help the Remain case. However, if Brexit were to happen, they would then presumably be involved in lobbying to get the best possible trade terms between Britain and remnant EU so that they could continue selling us lots of cars.

None of that is very difficult to understand, and I don't think you are struggling with it. I can only conclude that you are more interested in playing word games and attempting gotcha moments for some point-scoring game going on in your head than in having a polite and sensible conversation.
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You are just making my point and contradicting your earlier 'neck out' position. The post Brexit side argue that we can leave the EU, stop the free movement of people, save our contribution yet still have free trade. In the above you appear to agree with me that it will be more expensive to trade with the New EU and more expensive for them to trade with us. This is what the leaked BMW note said.

I am noting a theme. Your export figures also supported my point that the EU would be in the better bargaining position.

Perhaps we should focus on the wood before looking at the trees. My point is that post Brexit it will be more expensive for UK businesses to trade with the EU than businesses inside. Disagree?
 
Lothian said:
.......In the above you appear to agree with me that it will be more expensive to trade with the New EU and more expensive for them to trade with us......
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No I don't. If you're going to twist my words, at least have the courtesy to quote them.

Lothian said:
.......I am noting a theme. Your export figures also supported my point that the EU would be in the better bargaining position.
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Not the figures. The interpretation of the figures by the people who provided them.

Lothian said:
.......Perhaps we should focus on the wood before looking at the trees. My point is that post Brexit it will be more expensive for UK businesses to trade with the EU than businesses inside. Disagree?
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It might be. Or it might not be. It isn't me doing the time travel here.
 
MikeG said:
It might be. Or it might not be. It isn't me doing the time travel here.
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And the pyramids may have been built by ancient Egyptians or by Aliens.

You present the two choices as equally likely. There is practically no chance of UK businesses being able to trade with the EU and vice versa in the same way with the same costs as they do now post Brexit where we refuse free movement of people and where we refuse to pay for the privilege.
 
Lothian said:
.....There is practically no chance of UK businesses being able to trade with the EU and vice versa in the same way with the same costs as they do now post Brexit.........
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You demanded "sensible comments supported by evidence" from me, yet are quite content to post massive unsupported assertions yourself. I can't tell if you are being hypocritical or ironic. Or if your crystal ball is working really well.
 
Archie Gemmill Goal said:
If anyone's actually interested in a real analysis of the likely impact of Brexit on the UK automotive industry then I found this to be an interesting read.

http://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-KPMG-EU-Report.pdf
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But it says the automotive industry is against Brexit, propaganda!;)

Another point on post Brexit trade negotiations. Why would the EU offer the UK more favourable terms after it leaves than the ones it has offered to keep the UK in?
 
I'll concede that the UK trading with the EU after an unlikely Brexit will probably cost more.

But you need to offset that against all the trade not with the EU.

There's the trade that happens just within the UK which should be slightly less costly due to not having to comply with EU bureaucracy - remember that many small firms here don't export anything.

And there's the trade with the rest of the world which could be cheaper - as it will no longer carry the burden of EU tariffs.
 
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MikeG said:
You demanded "sensible comments supported by evidence" from me, yet are quite content to post massive unsupported assertions yourself. I can't tell if you are being hypocritical or ironic. Or if your crystal ball is working really well.
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Call it a crystal ball if you want. No developed country has tarrif free trade with the EU on the terms the Pro Brexit supporters claim. They seem to think we will get it because trade with the UK is important. However it misses the point that is not as important as trade with the EU is to us. Why would the EU go out of their way to assist a country who left the EU doesn't contribute and doesn't allow EU citizens free movement. All that to allow UK businesses to trade on a par with thier own. Seriously, no crystal ball is needed.
 
ceptimus said:
I'll concede that the UK trading with the EU after an unlikely Brexit will probably cost more.

But you need to offset that against all the trade not with the EU.

There's the trade that happens just within the UK which should be slightly less costly due to not having to comply with EU bureaucracy - remember that many small firms here don't export anything.

And there's the trade with the rest of the world which could be cheaper - as it will no longer carry the burden of EU tariffs.
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But they really don't now, what they have to comply with is UK bureaucracy. Why would leaving the EU get rid of that?
 
ceptimus said:
I'll concede that the UK trading with the EU after an unlikely Brexit will probably cost more.

But you need to offset that against all the trade not with the EU.

There's the trade that happens just within the UK which should be slightly less costly due to not having to comply with EU bureaucracy - remember that many small firms here don't export anything.

And there's the trade with the rest of the world which could be cheaper - as it will no longer carry the burden of EU tariffs.
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How much EU bureaucracy that wouldn't be replaced by UK bureaucracy affects small business?

I think you miss the point of tariffs which are to protect domestic businesses. Without EU tariffs UK businesses would want UK tariffs otherwise it is as you say cheaper to buy from abroad. Countries get rich selling more to other countries not buying more from them.
 
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