(excellent premise snipped for space)
...
Again, no one is actually banned from owning a firearm. You are aware that the laws are onerous and are only meant to, in practice and despite protestations to the contrary, limit access to firearms (the Worker Hearing Protection Act only applies to firing ranges? Come on!). You know this! But does the right to own a firearm really mean that owning a firearm should be easy?
Would this be fine? Would answering this really be something that required so much thought on your part? Would it require that we wait to see what the experts rule?
"Fine" isn't really a good metric. Because it would be fine with the people imposing the sanctions and not fine for those subject to them. And yes, if our touchstone is going to be the Constitution, then we are going to have to wait until the experts rule - we pay them precisely to do that.
This business of outflanking the Constitution isn't an uncommon tactic. People who support laissez faire gun policies accuse "gun-grabbers" of doing it all the time. They even have a stronger case, because gun rights are mentioned specifically and abortion rights are derivative - the Constitution doesn't mention abortion or who owns a fetus. Plainly, the political winds shift and old decisions are revisited with work-arounds in mind.
The Constitution isn't necessarily an insurmountable burden, so long as a clear majority wants things one way or another. We end up doing what we want anyhow. Consider the situation with legalized marijuana. I don't think states are allowed to ignore federal laws, at least not Constitutionally. (Otherwise, whatever Texas does on abortion is allowed, including banning it.) But so long as the Department of Justice doesn't bring it before the Supreme Court, states where marijuana is legal will continue on their merry way - why? Because that's the way we want it.
In the case of abortion we have two vocal, politically active camps. No one is going to ignore it. But, to address your hypothetical, if there was just the one camp - an anti-abortion side - then ways to effectively ban it would arise. I can even think of one that might work.
In most states there is some form of child endangerment law that extends to harming a fetus in utero. Some versions mention illegal drugs (meth in particular) but some (Alabama comes to mind) have a broad statute like, "chemical endangerment of a child" that can rope in stuff like alcohol abuse.
In any case, if you want to cut back on abortions, require the post-abortion fetus be tested for controlled substances and alcohol. If the results are positive, arrest the mother for felony abuse of a child. The idea is to get women to fear having an abortion because they might get busted. You don't really care about the fetus - that's dead already. What you want to do is make poor women fear the process.
If you want to conceal it further, require all babies - alive or dead - be tested.
So why wouldn't that work in practice? Because we have two camps. They each restrict the behavior of the other. The "fine" bit arises from this tension. The Supreme Court's role in all this is to keep us from killing each other over this stuff. When we read split decisions, we find perfectly good arguments offered on each side of the question at hand. This tells me that in some disputes, the matter is not clear on a Constitutional basis. Which, again, just supports my point that we will find a way to do whatever the hell we want to. It's not a flaw, it's a feature.