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2016 Arctic Sea Ice Thread

The day that ice breakers are not required during winter in the High Arctic is still some centuries away if ever
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Do you have anything remotely resembling support for that claim?
You do understand that there is a feedback mechanism at play?

and I assume you can understand trend lines???

ArcticSeaIceDecline_591.gif

Arctic sea ice volume by month in cubic kilometers (with simple quadratic trend lines projecting to zero volume, details here). The bottom (red) line is September volume.
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n November, Rear Admiral David Titley, the Oceanographer of the Navy, testified that “the volume of ice as of last September has never been lower…in the last several thousand years.” Titley, who is also the Director of Navy’s Task Force Climate Change, said he has told the Chief of Naval Operations that “we expect to see four weeks of basically ice free conditions in the mid to late 2030s.” Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School has “projected a (virtually) ice-free fall by 2016 (+/- 3 yrs).” Contrary to some reporting, that projection has been unchanged for years, though Maslowski is in the process of creating a more sophisticated model that he expects “will improve prediction of sea ice melt,” as he explained to me recently. Until then, we have some new observational data of Canadian sea ice thickness and this remarkable figure of sea ice volume since 1979 from Neven’s Arctic Sea Ice Blog, based on data from the University of Washington’s Polar Science Center :
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and that trend graph is 5 years old....

this is 2016

6a0133f03a1e37970b01bb08b8935a970d-pi


http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01bb08b8935a970d-pi
Now do you have some different information than the Navy and other science bodies that deal with this issue??
 
George 152 said:
The day that ice breakers are not required during winter in the High Arctic is still some centuries away if ever
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From post #24

36:20 Arctic sea ice volume is about 1/4 of what it was in the 1980's

So let's see if the ice volume is 1/4 of what is was in the 1980's "some centuries" from now it will be um... uh... hmmm???

Dunno

Scientists are floored by what’s happening in the Arctic right now

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...top-table-main_eoe-warming815p:homepage/story

"Perhaps, but that won't matter to the places humans live."

What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic - unlike Las Vegas
 
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Warmer1 said:
36:20 Arctic sea ice volume is about 1/4 of what it was in the 1980's
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I think you're talking about the summer minimum. George 152 is referring to the winter maximum.

From this graph the winter maximum looks to have reduced by about 30% in that period. So it's actually about two-thirds what it was in the 1980s.
 
Pixel42 said:
I think you're talking about the summer minimum. George 152 is referring to the winter maximum.

From this graph the winter maximum looks to have reduced by about 30% in that period. So it's actually about two-thirds what it was in the 1980s.
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I stand corrected then.

http://www.fednav.com/en/company/divisions/arctic-operations

"In September 2014, Fednav’s Nunavik was the first commercial vessel to completely transit the Northwest Passage unescorted, with an Arctic cargo and Canadian expertise"

Fednav owns and operates the 28,400-tonne MV Arctic, an oil-bulk-ore ice-breaking vessel, the 31,500-tonne MV Umiak I, and the
31,500-tonne MV Nunavik, the most powerful ice-breaking bulk carriers in the world. These vessels operate independently in the harsh polar environment and provide total transportation solutions to Canada’s northern mines.
 
Pixel42 said:
I think you're talking about the summer minimum. George 152 is referring to the winter maximum.

From this graph the winter maximum looks to have reduced by about 30% in that period. So it's actually about two-thirds what it was in the 1980s.
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Thanks again for the graph and if the trend continues ice breakers won't be needed in 61 years. That doesn't take into account any ice melt feed backs or improvements in ice breaking bulk carriers :D
 
I was aware of that ...the "death spiral" for Arctic ice is not going to be centuries to completion.....ie 365 navigation.

Mind you, orbital change is still in the cooling phase and fresh water sitting above saline is complex
 
George 152 said:
The day that ice breakers are not required during winter in the High Arctic is still some centuries away if ever
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If you found a way for a place in the dark during months to not radiate energy into space and become colder enough up to make ice, illustrate us.

Otherwise your assertion means "the day it won't snow during Winter, even in high mountains, is still far away".

For everyone else I find surprising the continuous repetition of the Arctic becoming warmer by several degrees. What did you expect from thinner ice and equally large volumes of ice being created? Are you aware the freezing point of water didn't change?
 
CapelDodger said:
Fortunately there's no obvious reason to go to the high Arctic in winter. It doesn't appeal to me at all.
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But it would appeal to shipping companies,
Instead of the long drag from i.e Britain through the Canal to places East you have the short NW Passage.
Less fuel usage faster delivery lower cost
 
Years ago I met David Scott Cowper who had set out from England in a 12.8-metre (42 ft) lifeboat, the Mabel El Holland in July 1986, and he sailed through the North West Passage AFAIR in two years.
So the route has been open periodically
 
Yep - Russia is investing heavily in the area for shipping and Canada is finishing the Dempster highway to reach the ocean.

It will be far easier to supply the north in both countries by way of the Arctic instead of long and seasonal ice roads that are becoming more perilous as the climate warms.
I suspect ice hardened supply ships will extend farther and farther into the season as the area warms incredibly fast.

Much of the ice cover is little more than slush - not hard multi-year ice. Of course deep winter is always going to be problematic - it is even for shipping in the mid-latitudes ( Great Lakes ) but it's the high latitudes where the warmth is intruding from the tropics even during mid-winter as this last year has shown dramatically.

The incredible warmth on the West Coast of Alaska is intruding deeper and deeper into what was Arctic biome and is now considered North Pacific biome.

In some respects the high Arctic is warmer and warming faster than the continental upper mid latitudes surrounding it.
 
George 152 said:
But it would appeal to shipping companies,
Instead of the long drag from i.e Britain through the Canal to places East you have the short NW Passage.
Less fuel usage faster delivery lower cost
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Indeed, the dream that killed Franklin and his crew, but that's not the high Arctic to my mind. Most of the NW Passage isn't even in open ocean, it runs through the Canadian Archipelago. Nit-picking perhaps, but that's me all over I'm afraid.
 
ummm

imrs.php



Similarly, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources of Canada’s Northwest Territories notes that transits of the Northwest Passage have been growing of late, observing that “A record number (30) of vessels transited through the Northwest Passage in 2012. In 2013, for the first time, a large bulk carrier transited the Northwest Passage.” Last year, meanwhile, a cargo ship carrying nickel ore (and equipped with some ice protection) made it through without icebreaker accompaniment.

Overall, says the department, “The number of transits increased from 4 per year in the 1980s to 20-30 per year in 2009-2013.” But it adds that most of these are done by icebreakers or by “small vessels/adventurers.” But that’s not the same as major shipping operations using the passage on a consistent basis. “Commercial traffic hasn’t really increased in the Northwest Passage at all,” says Haas.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...bly-wont-be-ready-for-shipping-any-time-soon/

Last year, meanwhile, a cargo ship carrying nickel ore (and equipped with some ice protection) made it through without icebreaker accompaniment.
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- A massive luxury cruise ship is planning a month-long journey in 2016 through the infamous Northwest Passage, a voyage that has intrigued ...
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Arctic shipping route through Russia planned by Chinese company
1st company to plan regularly-scheduled container-ship traffic through Arctic Ocean
By David Thurton, CBC News Posted: Oct 30, 2015 11:15 AM CT Last Updated: Oct 30, 2015 11:15 AM CT

China's largest shipping company has announced it will begin container voyages between Europe and Asia via Russia's Northern Sea Route.

China's largest shipping company has announced it will begin container voyages through Russia's Northern Sea Route, another step in the opening up of the Arctic Ocean to international shipping.

European wire service Agence France-Presse reports that Chinese cargo-shipping giant, Cosco, will start regularly scheduled vessel service through the Northern Sea Route, also known as the Northeast Passage
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more
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north...h-russia-planned-by-chinese-company-1.3296334

Cosco reportedly completed a 55-day trip between China and Europe through the Northern Sea Route this month and did a similar trip in 2013.

Arctic shipping routes will cut shipping time down between Asian and European markets. Depending on departure and arrival ports, ships travelling through the Arctic Ocean can reach the Pacific or Atlantic oceans faster than the Panama Canal.

Implications for Northwest Passage

Arctic watchers say Cosco's announcement lays the groundwork for future container ship voyages through Canada's Arctic via the Northwest Passage.

"This is something that makes you pause and go, 'wow,'" says Robert Huebert, a University of Calgary professor who researches Arctic issues.

Robert Huebert University of Calgary
'It basically lays to rest a lot of the conversation that a lot of the naysayers have had,' says Robert Huebert, a University of Calgary professor. (CBC)

"It basically lays to rest a lot of the conversation that a lot of the naysayers have had.

"Once you have the traffic up there, what's to prevent it from going over the North Pole, so to speak, just simply going through the Northwest Passage?"
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More years like this ....more ships and that in itself is an environment modifier
 
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