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Global warming discussion IV

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But you have to admit it's funny TSI is gonna be around the 1408 mark for the rest of the year and the first week of 2016 and if Haig were here he'd be shouting "NASA! NASA!" and dropping laughing dogs randomly.

Ah! it's really funny when you lot think the Sun has so little to do with climate change.

Luckily we have "NASA! NASA!" to point too and :dl::dl::dl:

Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate
NASA said:
There is, however, a dawning realization among researchers that even these apparently tiny variations can have a significant effect on terrestrial climate. A new report issued by the National Research Council (NRC), "The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate," lays out some of the surprisingly complex ways that solar activity can make itself felt on our planet.

Care to actually comment on the NASA view ????

aleCcowaN said:
When that sort of people plummet into ridiculous such way, I know my job is done. And lurkers learn who not to imitate.

So this is your JOB aleCcowaN :eek:

It must really irritate you that NASA has admitted the variability of the Sun plays such major part in the natural variability of Earth's Climate !!!! :D

 
Amazon rainforests could transition to savannah-like states in response to climate change, new study predicts
December 29, 2015 by Shreya Dasgupta, Mongaby

The massive Amazon forest is home to around 16,000 species of trees. Credit: Rhett Butler
By the end of this century, as climate continues to warm, dry seasons could become longer and more intense in the Amazon region. Droughts could become more commonplace. But the fate of the Amazon forest—home to around 300 billion trees, and crucial to the Earth's water and carbon cycle—in this drier future remains largely uncertain.
Some studies have predicted that the Amazon could suffer from a catastrophic die-back post 2050. Others have suggested that the region would mostly remain intact. Now, scientists say that the models used in these studies are flawed. The vast Amazonia is unlikely to respond to environmental changes in the same way, researchers say in a study published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Instead, different parts of the Amazon forest will react differently and with varying intensities.
The problem with previously used climate-change models, researchers say, is that they treat the immensely diverse Amazon rainforest as a vast swath of monotonous green. By doing so, these models fail to capture the complexity of the Amazonian ecosystem.
To avoid these pitfalls, co-author Paul Moorcroft, an ecologist at Harvard University, and his colleagues, developed and used a new model called the Ecosystem Demography Biosphere model that allows scientists to track the response of individual trees to climate change. To predict how the Amazon could change in the future, the team combined field observations and remote sensing estimates to the model.

more
http://phys.org/news/2015-12-amazon-rainforests-transition-savannah-like-states.html
 
Ah! it's really funny when you lot think the Sun has so little to do with climate change.
Not funny at all. The sun has 0% to do with AGW, and very little to do with the climate changes we are seeing now.

The sun has a lot to do with climate, but climate is not the same as climate change.

I see how when you are backed into a corner:boxedin: you make subtle changes in your wording to obfuscate and dodge.

If the sun were the primary factor in the changes we are seeing now, we would be cooling slowly, not warming. So try again.
 
Don't feed the troll - time to move on.

••••


Interested to see what factors led to the UK having 6 named storms since Nov 13th and doing 5.8 billion pounds of damage and that's only to date as the 6th storm is in progress.

The collision of the very warm Gulf Stream and a record cold current out of the Arctic is causing wild weather and the surmise is that the thermo-saline current is being slowed by the amount of fresh water in the Arctic from melt.

Why some scientists are worried about a surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean
Resize Text Print Article Comments 1408
By Chris Mooney September 24



January–August 2015 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Percentiles. (NOAA)
Update: See also this follow up article, “Everything you need to know about the cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean.”

It is, for our home planet, an extremely warm year.

Indeed, last week we learned from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that the first eight months of 2015 were the hottest such stretch yet recorded for the globe’s surface land and oceans, based on temperature records going back to 1880. It’s just the latest evidence that we are, indeed, on course for a record-breaking warm year in 2015.

Yet, if you look closely, there’s one part of the planet that is bucking the trend. In the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and Iceland, the ocean surface has seen very cold temperatures for the past eight months.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...bout-a-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/

and north west UK is just getting bludgeoned by massive and often unprecedented levels of rain.


Storm Frank: more gales and downpours forecast as new floods threaten - live coverage
Cumbria and southern and central Scotland face more disruption
‘Severe’ flood warnings centred on York
Initial estimate of flooding costs put at £5.8bn
David Cameron defends flood funding levels
Environment Agency calls for ‘complete rethink’ on flood defence

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...s-forecast-as-cleanup-continues-live-coverage

That is unreal - since Nov 13th ... :what:

Good over view

How can the UK prepare for the floods to come?
Experts once based defences on how to withstand once-a-century deluges. As floods becomes more common, there are new possibilities to consider

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/29/how-can-the-uk-prepare-for-the-floods-to-come

This is where the discussion of climate change needs to move to.

The Dutch have in place a program spending 1 Billion Euro a year to upgrade flood defences.

I gotta think it's a very dificult problem for UK compared to Netherlands...


We need a Dutch-style Delta plan to stem the tide of floods
Henk van Klaveren
With each new deluge the UK learns nothing, unlike the Netherlands, which has adapted to the changing nature of the threat

Sunday 27 December 2015 10.26 EST Last modified on Sunday 27 December 2015 17.00 EST

When more than 1,800 people died in the wake of the 1953 North Sea flood in the Netherlands, the national reaction was: never again. The resulting Delta programme to close off the south-western river delta from the sea was so bold that its name became synonymous with dealing with a crisis. If an issue needs a major response, you can be sure that a Dutch politician will call for a “Delta plan to tackle X”. It is time that the UK took some of that attitude and got a Delta plan to tackle flooding.

Flooding has become an almost annual event in the UK. We are waiting for the next storm and flash flood to hit, with another group – or even the same group – of people evacuated, all followed by the promise of some money for a bit of flood defence work. As a nation, we can no longer afford to accept that. Consider the personal misery for those affected, even in areas not traditionally flood-prone like Manchester and Leeds. Consider that the financial cost of these events will continue to rise – and not only for the government. Every home insurance policy now includes a £10.50 Flood Re levy to subsidise insurance for homes with a high risk of flooding.

With the climate changing and becoming more volatile, we can expect heavier rain and more severe storms. Water management systems in the UK, and in particular in England, are unable to deal with what lies ahead.

more
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/27/dutch-style-delta-plan-floods-uk-netherlands

There comes a point where some regions need to be abandoned and the insurance and relief money runs out...
 
.a good if polemic read, but the numbers are insane....

The Scariest Part of This Season’s Weird Weather Is Coming Soon

Tornadoes, floods, and a heat wave at the North Pole.

151229_SCI_Arctic-Temps.png.CROP.promovar-mediumlarge.png

A weather forecast for Wednesday morning shows a rare midwinter warm front over the North Pole, with temperatures a few degrees above freezing—about 50 or 60F warmer than normal for late December.

http://www.slate.com/articles/healt...ornadoes_will_heat_the_north_pole.single.html

a companion piece to the 6th named storm hitting the UK about now.
 
Seriously crazy weather in the North Atlantic....

Warm Storm Brings Rain Over Arctic Sea Ice in Winter
The Starks were wrong. Winter isn’t coming. It’s dying.

******

As The Atlantic so aptly notes, the hottest year in the global climate record is ending with a Storm that will Unfreeze the North Pole. A warm storm that is now predicted to bring never-before-seen above freezing temperatures in the range of 32 to 36 degrees Fahrenheit for the highest Latitude in the Northern Hemisphere by afternoon tomorrow. A storm expected to dump six inches of rain and bring 80 mile per hour winds to a Northern England already suffering the worst flooding events in all of its long history. A storm that will rage ashore in Iceland packing 90-100 mile per hour winds and hurl both heavy rains and snows across that volcanic isle.

frank-4-lows.png


(Three of Frank’s multiple strong low pressure systems raging through the North Atlantic on Tuesday, December 29. At 956, 948, and 974 mb, two of these lows each pack the strength of a major hurricane — but with their energy spread out over a larger area. By late tonight two of these lows will have combined and tracked toward Iceland bombing out into a 920 mb class monster storm. Meanwhile, the far flung effects of these storms will have resulted in yet another round of high winds and very severe flooding for England. Image source: Ocean Prediction Center.)

It’s a storm with impacts stretching from just west of Spain and all the way to the North Pole itself. A sprawling monster of a thing covering the area the size of a small continent.
The very precursor in fact of Dr. James Hansen’s ‘continent-sized frontal storms packing the strength of hurricanes.’ The dark beasts this visionary scientist feared might arise during an age in which the great glaciers of the world started to melt — the cool outflow of their waters conflicting with a raging human forced warming of the globe to radically destabilize the world’s weather (see Storms of My Grandchildren).

The impacts of this storm, which the UK Met Office is now calling Frank, could well be tremendous. Cumbria in Northern England may be set to experience yet another ‘worst flood on record’ — one of three occurring just this month. And the 920 mb range central low of this sprawling system is forecast to rip through the heart of Iceland itself. But the more visible risk of damages to England and Iceland may well pale in comparison to the quiet, yet drastic impacts taking place in the far north.

image6.jpg


Unprecedented doesn’t even begin to describe rain over Arctic sea ice above the 80 degree North Latitude line on the evening of Tuesday, December 29, 2015. It’s something we’d rarely see during summer time. But this rain is falling through the black of polar night during the coldest time of the year. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)
more
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/29/warm-storm-brings-rain-over-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/
 
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Not sure that it will have sea ice effect this time of year but if we had a repeat in the spring ....all bets are off.

That said - the Arctic Report is released but I think isolating it in it's own thread misses the bigger picture that these latest events illustrate.

Dr. Hansen may well be correct in his concerns.

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms

by Web Team | July 23, 2015
Category: Blog
Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms

23 July 2015

James Hansen

The paper “Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming is highly dangerous” has been published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion and is freely available here.

The paper draws on a large body of work by the research community, as indicated by the 300 references. No doubt we missed some important relevant contributions, which we may be able to rectify in the final version of the paper. I thank all the researchers who provided data or information, many of whom I may have failed to include in the ac

paper is here

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ◦C global warming is highly dangerous

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/15/20059/2015/acpd-15-20059-2015.pdf

I wrote to Gavin and proclaimed his previous boss prophet in residence after seeing this storm pattern. :D

Snip

Our climate model exposes amplifying feedbacks in the Southern Ocean that slow Antarctic bottom water formation and increase ocean tem- perature near ice shelf grounding lines, while cooling the surface ocean and increasing sea ice cover and water column stability. Ocean surface cooling, in the North Atlantic
15 as well as the Southern Ocean, increases tropospheric horizontal temperature gradi- ents, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, which drive more powerful storms
.

Fancy that...:rolleyes:
 
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The Frankenstorm..

CXdc78rWYAA4s9z.png


Freak heatwave pushes North Pole's winter temperatures above freezing
Updated about 11 hours ago

Temperatures at the North Pole have risen above freezing, 20 degrees above the mid-winter norm and the latest abnormality in a season of extreme weather events.

Canadian weather authorities blamed the temperature spike on the freak depression which has already brought record Christmas temperatures to North America and lashed Britain with winds and floods.

The deep low pressure area is currently looming over Iceland and churning up hurricane-force 75-knot winds and nine-metre waves in the north Atlantic while dragging warm air northwards.

"It's a very violent and extremely powerful depression, so it's not surprising that hot temperatures have been pushed so far north," Canadian Government meteorologist Nathalie Hasell said.


"This deep depression has pushed hot air as far as the North Pole, where temperatures are at least 20 degrees above normal, at around freezing point, between zero and 2 degrees Celsius," she said.

US scientists from the North Pole Environmental Observatory told AFP news agency that the temperatures had climbed suddenly.

An Arctic monitoring point 300 kilometres from the Pole that had been recording -37C on Monday had shot up to -8C by Wednesday, senior researcher James Morison said.
 
Do you ??? Apparently not. Did you read the paper by Hansen predicting exactly this or are you still trying to deny the obvious and troll climate denier sites on a science forum. :rolleyes:

This is your "source". No science - just paid nonsense that you swallow.

Marc Morano is the executive director and chief correspondent of ClimateDepot.com, a project of the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT). Morano is also the Communications Director at CFACT, a conservative think-tank in Washington D.C. that has received funding from ExxonMobil, Chevron, as well as hundreds of thousands of dollars from foundations associated with Richard Mellon Scaife. According to 2011 IRS Forms (PDF), Morano was the highest paid staff member with a salary of $150,000 per year. Morano's blog Climate Depot regularly publishes articles questioning man-made global warming. [12], [13], [6], [37]

Although he has no scientific expertise in the area, Morano has become a prominent climate change denier. He has been called “the Matt Drudge of climate denial”, the “King of the skeptics,” and a “central cell of the climate-denial machine.” He was also listed as one of 17 top “climate killers” by Rolling Stone Magazine. He has accused climate scientists of “fear mongering,” and has claimed that proponents of man-made global warming are “funded to the tune of $50 billion.” [15], [16]

From 2006 to 2009, Morano was the communications director for Senator James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the minority chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee. Prior to the last election, Inhofe was the majority chair of the EPW committee. In the 2002 election cycle, Senator Inhofe received more in donations from the oil and gas sector than any other Senator. Sen. Inhofe is known for his infamous quote that the threat of catastrophic global warming is the “greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people,” and as his communications director, Mornano has spent his recent years propagating this message. [3]

According to Marc Morano's profile at the Heartland Institute, “Morano joined the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee as the majority Communications Director in June 2006 after a decade and a half as a working journalist, documentary maker, radio talk show host, and national television correspondent.” Apart from being a regular speaker at the Heartland Institute's International Conference on Climate Change, Morano is also listed on their website as a “global warming expert.” [2], [17]

Prior to working for Senator Inhofe, Morano was a journalist with Cybercast News Service, which is owned and operated by the Media Research Center (MRC). The MRC is supported in part by right-wing foundations and funding from industry, including over $200,000 from ExxonMobil. From 1992 to 1996, Morano also worked as a producer for the Rush Limbaugh Television Show and was known as “Limbaugh's man in Washington.” Morano often appears on Fox news to promote his ideas regarding climate change. [4]

http://www.desmogblog.com/marc-morano

Have any science to contribute?
 
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THIS ..is extreme weather driven by a super volcano.

This is a very interesting look at how a massive volcano affected the earth's weather.

The Volcano That Shrouded the Earth and Gave Birth to a Monster
Three years of darkness and cold spawned crime, poverty, and a literary masterpiece.

BY GILLEN D'ARCY WOOD
ILLUSTRATIONS BY WESLEY ALLSBROOK
DECEMBER 31, 2015

Two hundred years ago, the greatest eruption in Earth’s recorded history took place. Mount Tambora—located on Sumbawa Island in the East Indies—blew itself up with apocalyptic force in April 1815.


After perhaps 1,000 years’ dormancy, the devastating evacuation and collapse required only a few days. It was the concentrated energy of this event that was to have the greatest human impact. By shooting its contents into the stratosphere with biblical force, Tambora ensured its volcanic gases reached sufficient height to disable the seasonal rhythms of the global climate system, throwing human communities worldwide into chaos. The sun-dimming stratospheric aerosols produced by Tambora’s eruption in 1815 spawned the most devastating, sustained period of extreme weather seen on our planet in perhaps thousands of years.

http://nautil.us/issue/31/stress/the-volcano-that-shrouded-the-earth-and-gave-birth-to-a-monster

What's occurring now is extreme weather driven by our altering the radiative balance in the opposite direction through the burning of fossil fuels.
 
The temperature in the Fairbanks, Alaska suburb of North Pole earlier today was apparently in the low 40s Fahrenheit.

It was then that Alexandra Sifferlin at Time.com reported the Alaska town's temperature as if it came from the North Pole. The only current evidence of Sifferlin's original grievous error at Time.com is a deliberately vague correction at the bottom of her post telling readers that "This article originally misidentified a temperature reading as belonging to the North Pole."

http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb...ites-temperature-north-pole-alaska-north-pole
 
Mountain meet molehill.:rolleyes: Of course you avoid the actual story

Weather
As winds calm, warm weather topples temperature records around Alaska
Jerzy Shedlock,Megan Edge
December 31, 2015

Temperatures reached 45 degrees in both Anchorage and Fairbanks Wednesday, a Dec. 30 record for both cities -- and two of several high temperature records set statewide.

https://www.adn.com/article/2015123...her-topples-temperature-records-around-alaska

_87427549_arctic_temperature_anomaly_624in.png

Astonishing spike at North Pole: BBC science editor David Shukman
One of the most bizarre side-effects of the current turbulence in the global weather is that even at the roof of the world, at what is meant to be the coldest time of the year in the northern hemisphere, the North Pole itself is unusually warm.
There are no instruments there at the moment to provide exact readings but US weather buoys, drifting with the ice slightly to the south, have recorded the extraordinary fact of temperatures nudging just above zero. And the Norwegian weather service estimates temperatures there to be around -2C.
Either way, that is astonishingly warm given the average temperature for the time of year, which is around -25C.The spike in warmth will not last long but may conceivably act as a brake on the usual process of the growth of winter ice in the Arctic. And it certainly serves as a reminder of the power and reach of Storm Frank, which is currently battering the UK, as the swirl of winds around it has pushed warm air northwards.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-35197887
 
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Strawberries in December...

Europe's winter warmth puts nature in tailspin
January 1, 2016 by Angus Mackinnon And Jordane Bertrand In Bordeaux

The daffodils are out in London, plum trees are blossoming in Milan and asparagus tips are pushing through the soil in eastern France.
Across Europe, unseasonably warm winter weather has left the natural world in a spin with plants, insects and animals convinced Spring must be just around the corner.

The disruption of established weather patterns has put strawberries on festive menus in France, ensured an abundance of game in Germany's woodlands and seen tomatoes ripen for an exceptional third time this year on Italian balconies.
With grass still growing in the north of Scotland well into December, the famous Royal Dornoch links put the traditional switch to winter greens on hold and kept its mowers buzzing into the final days of 2015.

But alongside the serendipitous consequences for gourmets and golfers, unusual climatic conditions have also been linked to more unsettling trends.
Scientists and gardeners alike fret over whether this year reflects a worrying new normal created by global climate change.
More than 2,000 wildfires have ravaged swaths of northern Spain in recent weeks thanks to a combination of unusually warm weather and high winds.

Farmers across Europe meanwhile are grappling with the hard-to-predict implications of conditions which, while boosting the production of some crops, may reduce yields of others and allow pests to thrive later in the year due to the absence of a sustained winter cold spell to kill them off.

Strawberries for Christmas
"It is strange to see how certain plants are already flowering crazily," said Hans-Jurgen Packheiser, a 76-year-old beekeper from Halver in Germany's North Rhine-Westphalia region.
"Some of the bees in my hives are already out and about looking for nectar. They think winter is already finished."
In the Dordogne region of southwestern France, strawberry producers were surprised to see plants that would normally have to be protected from frost from mid-November onwards continue to bear fruit right up to Christmas.

"Even my father-in-law, who has been producing strawberries since 1956, has never seen anything like it," said Patricia Rebillou, the president of the local producers' association.
It is a similar story in Alsace, where amateur gardener Rene Wolfhugel was able to harvest enough asparagus for his Christmas Eve dinner, four months earlier than normal for a vegetable that traditionally heralds the arrival of Spring.

more
http://phys.org/news/2016-01-europe-winter-warmth-nature-tailspin.html
 
Ah! it's really funny when you lot think the Sun has so little to do with climate change.

Luckily we have "NASA! NASA!" to point too and :dl::dl::dl:

Solar Variability and Terrestrial Climate


Care to actually comment on the NASA view ????



So this is your JOB aleCcowaN :eek:

It must really irritate you that NASA has admitted the variability of the Sun plays such major part in the natural variability of Earth's Climate !!!! :D


You may repeat and paste all of the crap you find in the dark alleys of the Internet (alleys where somebody made graffiti with "NASA" in it, and some posters from NASA are hung for decoration), but still you have no idea what TSI is:

TSI today is a bit under the 1408 mark and about the reach its maximum in the last 11 months or so.

But you'll continue to babble about your copypasta and laughing dogs. I have no problem with that as it just shows your own ignorance for everyone to see and paint you with the thick broach of ridiculousness.
 
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