Ok, I've just read the latest on the Stasi verdict (by Cassation) on the IA thread. This may present a clue as to why the newspiece you cited also made mention of the unpredictability of Cassation, making it fruitless to predict outcomes.
A reminder - Stasi was acquitted in both 1st grade and 2nd grade, lower court trials. Like the Knox/Sollecito case, Cassation annulled the acquittals and ordered a new, second grade trial - along certain parameters.
The new 2nd grade trial then convicted. Incredibly, if I am reading the thread at IA right, both the Prosecutor General AND the defence appeal to Cassation was to annul this conviction (!), the only difference being that the prosecution wanted annulment with referral back, and the defence (like in the Knox/Sollecito case) wanted annulment without referral.
The claim made was, "The Prosecutor General, who should represent, as its name says, the prosecution has utterly destroyed the convicting ruling, demolishing it both from a fact finding point of view and from a legal one." The prosecutor general, apparently, went on to say that the new 2nd grade judges presumed Stasi as guilty, because that was the way they viewed the remand from the previous Cassation referral.
Even with this Cassation upheld both the conviction as well as the 16 year prison sentence.
So..... it seems like (as it says) Cassation is pretty much a lottery of justice.