Global warming discussion IV

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Haig: Links to a lying, ignorant paranoid "Massive Carbon Scheme Fraud" rant

Haig said:
Oh dear!
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Haig lies about the climate again with this lying image and a rant from a liar!

Haig's 32 parroted ignorance and lies from climate change deniers dating from 11 May 2015 with the list continuing to grow!
  1. 27 November 2015 Haig: Your question about Salby's denial of climate science has been answered.
  2. 30 November 2015 Haig: Repeats a delusion that a Maunder Minimum will cause a Little Ice Age!
    5 years of repeating Abdussamatov's ignorance turns your denial into a delusion, Haig, because you know that the climate science is that a new Maunder Minimum will only reduce global warming :eye-poppi.
  3. 30 November 2015 Haig: It is a lie that Abdussamatov's "forecast" matches temperature data from 2008 to 2015.
  4. 3 December 2015 Haig: Repeats the delusion that Watts Up With That is a reliable source about climate even after he has been shown Monckton's lies, etc. on WUWT!
  5. 3 December 2015 Haig: Mindlessly links to a lying, ignorant paranoid "Massive Carbon Scheme Fraud" rant!
    Some unknown source rants about Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull volcano erupting in 2011.
    They rant about volcanic ash - not the actual gases emitted during eruptions.
    They idiotically think that climate scientists do not know about volcanoes and their eruptions :eek:! The reaction of climate to eruptions is one way to estimate climate sensitivity. The Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 mentioned in the rant is used to test climate models!
    They lie about the planet cooling by "0.7 degrees in the past century".
    Obviously linking to someone lying about climate does not bother Haig so we can expect another link to this liar soon :p!
  6. 3 December 2015 Haig: Repeats a lying image about no global arming for 18 years and 9 months again.
 
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Haig: Repeats the delusion that Watts Up With That is a reliable source about climate

Haig said:
And another thing ...
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Actually not another thing: 3 December 2015 Haig: Repeats the delusion that Watts Up With That is a reliable source about climate even after he has been shown Monckton's lies, etc. on WUWT!
 
Haig said:
Only if you believe Co2 is a poison and not a plant food and that it LAGS temperature NOT DRIVES it ! :cool:
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Only if we believe lies about CO2 LAGGING temperature and that CO2 does not DRIVE temperature, Haig.
3 December 2015 Haig: Current CO2 increases have come before temperature increases so "it LAGS temperature" is a lie.
3 December 2015 Haig: The greenhouse effect exists so CO2 not driving temperature is a lie.

If you were not parroting climate change myths I would try to explain some climate science to you yet again. A pity that your track record shows that you will always ignore climate science and continue with delusions such as the Sun is currently the major driver of global temperatures (35 years of a constant solar output and increasing temperature!).
 
beelzebub said:
So, in conclusion, rather than showing that Global Warming has stopped, the graph actually shows the warming continuing apace - and on-target to exceed 2°C by the end of the century.
Surely not the message Haig was hoping to convey! :eek:
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There is another interpretation of the image. This "X year and N months" lie that Haig is obsessed with was started by Christopher Monckton, an ex-economist and ignorant climate change denier. Do the same analysis in Wood for Trees and we get a similar graph. My conclusion is that Monckton is so incompetent and ignorant about basic analysis that he has wrongly labeled the graph.
 
Ouch ...

Bad News For The Planet,” Says The World Meteorological Organization
BY JOE ROMM NOV 25, 2015 11:58AM

WMO-2015.jpg

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that 2015 will set (or already has set) a variety of worrisome climate records due to manmade carbon pollution:

2011-2015 “have been the warmest five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events – especially heatwaves – influenced by climate change.”

2015 is set to be the hottest year on record by far, with the highest ocean surface temperatures ever monitored.

It’s “probable” that total global warming since the industrial revolution will cross the 1°C (1.8°F).

The 3-month average of Northern Hemisphere CO2 levels “crossed the 400 parts per million barrier for the first time.”

Michel Jarraud. In particular, crossing the 1°C (1.8°F) means we are halfway to the 2°C (3.6°F) threshold that world’s top scientists and governments have identified as the defense line past which climate impacts become very dangerous and then catastrophic.
Last week, NASA data made clear that 2015 was going to crush the record for hottest year. On top of the underlying human-caused warming trend is the short-term warming caused by a very strong El Niño. As the top chart shows, global temperature records tend to be set in El Niño years, and those records just get higher and higher over time because of carbon pollution.
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http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/11/25/3725792/hottest-5-years-record/
 
Haig, you can't be this dense. Let's use your own graph:

3823656486e1a76889.png


Set the starting point not at 1998, but Feb, 2012. Based on that starting point, how much warming has occurred from Feb 2012 to Oct 2015? Does half a degree look about right? So, based on your graph, in less than four years, the Earth has warmed half a degree. That would put us on pace for over a degree of warming every decade.

Cherry-picking data cuts both ways doesn't it? We probably should avoid it, shouldn't we?
 
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Fudbucker said:
Haig, you can't be this dense. Let's use your own graph:

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/3823656486e1a76889.png[/qimg]

Set the starting point not at 1998, but Feb, 2012. Based on that starting point, how much warming has occurred from Feb 2012 to Oct 2015? Does half a degree look about right? So, based on your graph, in less than four years, the Earth has warmed half a degree. That would put us on pace for over a degree of warming every decade.

Cherry-picking data cuts both ways doesn't it? We probably should avoid it, shouldn't we?
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The cherry-picking isn't as offensive as the dishonesty and disingenuity of asserting that this graph represents Temperature

This looks like someone has produced a graph of residuals (taken the monthly temperature anomalies, subtracted the trend, and then averaged the data over the time period. All the relatively flat line tells you is that the data points were consistent with whatever trend was subtracted to produce the residuals.

But, it is disingenuous (most generously) to subtract the trend, and then claim the remaining residuals display no trend, therefore there has been no average temperature increase.

Just for fun:

http://i.imgur.com/JtjOopp.png

http://i.imgur.com/2ZkFRsv.png?1

Hansen's covered this since talk of a "hiatus" first missed its nomer.
Here's some of his later comments:
Global Temperature Update Through 2013 - http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf
 
Trakar said:
The cherry-picking isn't as offensive as the dishonesty and disingenuity of asserting that this graph represents Temperature
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It probably is temperature, just not surface temperature. Unlike surface temperature the record high for lower troposphere temperature is still 1998. Here is the RSS and UAH , and it does seem to fit. The dates are clearly cherry picked.


http://woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997/to:2015/plot/uah/from:1997/to:2015



RSS may have some negative drift possibly caused by orbital decay of one of the satellites. UAH may have some different issues and satellite data in general is error prone because it’s so sensitive to geometry and sensors that drift over time and then get pumped through some pretty heavy duty number crunching that can magnify errors. It’s worth reiterating that Satellites do not measure surface temperature, they are measuring lower troposphere temperature which may have a legitimate different trend on 20-30 year time scales due to their sensitivity to ENSO.
 
Trakar said:
Hansen's covered this since talk of a "hiatus" first missed its nomer.
Here's some of his later comments:
Global Temperature Update Through 2013 - http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf
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Guest post on Realclimate that discusses their paper and some other papers on the “pause”.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/11/hiatus-or-bye-atus/

The Lewandowsky, Risbey & Oreskes paper is actually pretty telling.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1

They relabeled temperature data as agricultural output and polled economists on where there was any evidence of a pause. None of them endorsed the “pause” and 2/3 of them suggested claims of a pause could be outright fraud.
 
lomiller said:
Guest post on Realclimate that discusses their paper and some other papers on the “pause”.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/11/hiatus-or-bye-atus/

The Lewandowsky, Risbey & Oreskes paper is actually pretty telling.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1

They relabeled temperature data as agricultural output and polled economists on where there was any evidence of a pause. None of them endorsed the “pause” and 2/3 of them suggested claims of a pause could be outright fraud.
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Very interesting stuff! Too bad they didnt show the economists the graph Haig spews around.
 
Fudbucker said:
Haig, you can't be this dense. Let's use your own graph:

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/3823656486e1a76889.png[/qimg]

Set the starting point not at 1998, but Feb, 2012. Based on that starting point, how much warming has occurred from Feb 2012 to Oct 2015? Does half a degree look about right? So, based on your graph, in less than four years, the Earth has warmed half a degree. That would put us on pace for over a degree of warming every decade.

Cherry-picking data cuts both ways doesn't it? We probably should avoid it, shouldn't we?
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You're missing the point :p Let Christopher Monckton of Brenchley explain it again (just for you) in quite some detail :D

The robust Pause resists a robust el Niño Still no global warming at all for 18 years 9 months
The sheer length of the Pause has made a mockery of the exaggerated prediction made by IPCC in 1990 to the effect that there should have been 0.72 [0.50. 1.08] degrees’ global warming by now. The observed real-world warming since 1990, on all five leading global datasets, is 0.24-0.44 degrees, or one-third to three-fifths of IPCC’s central prediction and well below its least prediction (Fig. 3).

The Pause will probably shorten dramatically in the coming months and may disappear altogether for a time. However, if there is a following la Niña, as there often is, the Pause may return at some time from the end of next year onward.

The hiatus period of 18 years 9 months is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend. The start date is not cherry-picked: it is calculated. And the graph does not mean there is no such thing as global warming. Going back further shows a small warming rate.

The start-date for the Pause has been inching forward, though just a little more slowly than the end-date, which is why the Pause continues on average to lengthen.

So long a stasis in global temperature is simply inconsistent with the extremist predictions of the computer models. It raises legitimate questions whether they overstate the value for the radiative forcing in response to a proportionate change in CO2 concentration.

The UAH dataset shows a Pause almost as long as the RSS dataset. However, the much-altered surface tamperature datasets show a small warming rate (Fig. 4).
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Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide actually cools part of Antarctica
Sid is a freelance science journalist.

By Sid Perkins 4 December 2015 10:30 am Comments

In a world where most regions are warming because of increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), central Antarctica has been cooling slightly in recent years.

Greenhouse gases such as CO2 typically trap heat radiated back toward space from the planet’s surface, but large swaths of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (the broad pink mass on the right side of the image) are, on average, actually colder than the upper layers of the atmosphere for much of the year—the only place on Earth where that’s true.

When the team looked at the overall balance between the radiation upward from the surface of the ice sheet and the radiation both upward and downward from the upper levels of the atmosphere across all infrared wavelengths over the course of a year, they found that in central Antarctica the surface and lower atmosphere, against expectation, actually lose more energy to space if the air contains greenhouse gases, the researchers report online and in a forthcoming Geophysical Research Letters.
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more
http://news.sciencemag.org/environm...carbon-dioxide-actually-cools-part-antarctica
 
LIVE FROM PARIS: Monday, Dec. 7, 09:00 - Day of Examining the Data at COP-21

COP-21 LIVE-STREAM MONDAY, DEC. 7: ‘Day of Examining the Data’ Brings Science to Paris Climate Conference :cool:
Schedule of the “Day of Examining the Data”:

09:00: Press Conference
Members of the “Cooler Heads Coalition” from the United States, Canada, and Europe

10:00 – 11:30 PANEL 1: The Latest Science and the Errors of the UN’s IPCC
James Taylor, USA (Moderator)
Robert M. Carter, Ph.D., Australia
Willie Soon, Ph.D., USA
S. Fred Singer, Ph.D., USA
Christopher Essex, Ph.D., Canada

11:45 – 12:45 Keynote luncheon
Speakers: U.S. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), via video; TBA

13:00 – 14:30 PANEL 2: Sensible Energy Policy for the Poor vs. UN Energy Policies
Tom Harris, Canada (Moderator)
Patrick Moore, Ph.D., Canada
Nick Loris, USA
Wolfgang Müller, Germany
Christopher Monckton, United Kingdom

14:30 – 14:45 Closing Remarks
James Taylor, USA

18:30: WORLD PREMIERE of the film “Climate Hustle,” presented by CFACT
Cinema du Pantheon, 13 Rue Victor Cousin, 75005 Paris
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Haig, you are the perfect torch-bearer for the dying days of denial. An avatar of Monckton, the public face of the movement by the grace of providence. Who saw that coming twenty years ago? His annointment by Heatland at the Manhattan shindig, back in the golden days, must have seemed like a good idea at the time.

The general arc of the denial cult was easy to predict, the details not so much. By now it was destined to be the end-of-the-pier show of ageing sad-acts it is, gradually merging into the grey glob of global conspiracism that owes so much to McCarthy.

By my count we're on the fifth Monckton pause, four others having been abandoned. The current one is, of course, warmer than all the rest yet still you cling to it. He gets through them quicker than Trump gets through wives.

It's time to give up on this and stick to the earthquake thing. It's easy to spread oneself too thin, especially in your particular case. One can end up simply pointing at stuff rather than actually saying anything, which really loses an audience.
 
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