Adnan Syed - Serial / Undisclosed

I feel like Adnan did it, based on what I've heard, but if I were a juror I sure couldn't vote guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Just having the prosecutor setup the defense attorney for Jay throws the whole damn thing out, among much more weirdness
 
pipelineaudio said:
I feel like Adnan did it, based on what I've heard, but if I were a juror I sure couldn't vote guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. Just having the prosecutor setup the defense attorney for Jay throws the whole damn thing out, among much more weirdness
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I have a lot of trouble with the timeline for that. . . . .If Adnan did it, it has no relationship at all with the prosecution sold the jury.
 
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Desert Fox said:
I have a lot of trouble with the timeline for that. . . . .If Adnan did it, it has no relationship at all with the prosecution sold the jury.
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Maybe they lacked the means to reconstruct a perfect timeline given the uncooperative witness. It's not always possible. The general timeline is he killed her sometime after school after tricking her into giving him a ride. He later got Jay to help bury the body and ditch the car. Unless every hour can be perfectly accounted for, there's plenty of time for all that to happen.
 
bagels said:
Maybe they lacked the means to reconstruct a perfect timeline given the uncooperative witness. It's not always possible. The general timeline is he killed her sometime after school after tricking her into giving him a ride. He later got Jay to help bury the body and ditch the car. Unless every hour can be perfectly accounted for, there's plenty of time for all that to happen.
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It seems pretty clear that she died or was under somebody's control soon after school. If Hae gave him a ride, he would have had to strangle her and somehow race back to school for track.

Maybe if he was a serial killer or a professional hit man, he could do something like that. The thing is that he was a seventeen year old. Murders by such young people tend to be messy and leave a lot of clues behind.

Jay seems to be too cooperative a witness actually. Other than wanting to keep himself as an accessory only, he seems perfectly willing to change and mold him timeline to whatever the cops want him to.

I don't think Adnan was involved. Maybe he was and I am not as certain of his innocence as I am with Amanda and others. No matter, there is something weird and odd about his case.
 
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Desert Fox said:
It seems pretty clear that she died or was under somebody's control soon after school. If Hae gave him a ride, he would have had to strangle her and somehow race back to school for track.

Maybe if he was a serial killer or a professional hit man, he could do something like that. The thing is that he was a seventeen year old. Murders by such young people tend to be messy and leave a lot of clues behind.

Jay seems to be too cooperative a witness actually. Other than wanting to keep himself as an accessory only, he seems perfectly willing to change and mold him timeline to whatever the cops want him to.

I don't think Adnan was involved. Maybe he was and I am not as certain of his innocence as I am with Amanda and others. No matter, there is something weird and odd about his case.
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Is there actual proof he was at track? I thought the whole theme of the podcast was how important an hour could be and remembering where you were and if your friends remembered where you were.
 
bagels said:
Is there actual proof he was at track? I thought the whole theme of the podcast was how important an hour could be and remembering where you were and if your friends remembered where you were.
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I think the evidence is good that he was at track that day but not 100%.
 
Well it just seems a fair assessment to me to say Adnan probably did it/was involved, but the evidence might not be enough. You seem to think his involvement is completely improbable? I'm not seeing that.

I admit I haven't studied this case extensively, so I don't really have a firm opinion, but the alleged crime seems pretty straight forward to me and makes sense. Adnan was dumped by his girlfriend for an older/cooler boy, history has shown this is plenty of motive for a man to kill a woman. On the day she disappeared he asked her for a ride after school. He didn't have his car with him because he had mysteriously lent both it and his phone to his friend Jay for an implausible reason. After school Hae is never seen alive again despite her only known plans being possibly giving Adnan a ride and then picking up her cousin (which she never does). Adnan can't give a very good account of his whereabouts. It's known he was at some point with Jay, and Jay absolutely confirms his own involvement in the murder by knowing the hidden location of Hae's car. Jay's story that Adan killed her then came to him for help hiding the body seems believable and makes sense.

The case does seem a bit flaky given the lack of forensic evidence and Jay's total unreliability (aside from knowing the location of the car) so I can see why it's regarded as weak. But I don't see anything striking about the claim that Adnan probably did it. I mean, it's hardly satanic sex rituals between strangers in Italy :P
 
If Jay led the police to the car or if Jay led the car to the police seems unclear. In addition, the location of the car seems to be in a location that is Jay's stomping ground.

I used to own an orange 1987 Ford Mustang. One day I found a note on the car from a previous owner asking if they might be able to buy it from me. Strange things do happen.

The reason he appears to have gotten his cell phone is to be in communication with a new girlfriend without his family knowing. Does not appear that he was too bothered about it. Other than Jay, there seems to be no indications of rage or anger towards Hae over having a new boyfriend.

There is a lot of different issues with him getting a ride from Hae with other students having heard later on that she told him that she could not due to having some other commitment. From what I am to understand, nobody saw Adnan in Hae's car and I am pretty sure that some have said that she was the only one in the car.

One item I need to look up is where the daycare is in relation to the location of Wood Lawn and the Best Buys. I would like to see if the location makes any sense in relation to the trip between the two locations.

Of note, there were a huge numbers of homicides in Baltimore in 1999, almost one per day. The police interest, and this seems to come from multiple sources, seems to have been in closing cases.
 
I just read this list. Too many simple questions are posed for Adnan Syed to have any show of proving he is innocent. The "I will kill" is a most unusual thing to write.
Maybe someone can answer them point by point, but it would seem an impossible challenge.

..............................................................................................................................................

Ann Brocklehurst writes:

So, for the record, let me tell you why I’m convinced Adnan is guilty.

Adnan should remember what happened on that very un-normal day. He was called by police the same day his ex-girlfriend disappeared. He was interviewed by police two weeks later. The whole “I can’t remember that normal day six weeks ago” schtick is total BS. And Koenig was a sucker for believing it. There is no good explanation for why Adnan has no alibi. He was aware the day Hae went missing something was seriously wrong.
Jay has no reason for framing Adnan nor does anyone else let alone Roy Sharonnie Davis or Ronald Lee Moore, who, between the two of them, probably have the combined IQ of a cactus plant.
Adnan has no explanation whatsoever as to how he landed in this position. Yes, I know Deirdre Enright said innocent people often can’t help their case. But she was talking about not being able to find a body in a field as opposed to having no idea whatsoever why your buddy Jay might want to frame you for murder. People who work with killers will also tell you that this vaguey-vague “someone must have framed me but I don’t know why” explanation is a pretty common one among the guilty.
Adnan has consistently lied about how people reacted to Hae’s disppearance, claiming it was no big deal, which is completely implausible. Hae had a new a boyfriend, a class trip to France booked, and university to look forward to. There was no way she’d take off to California in the middle of her senior year.
Adnan’s good friend Imran appears to have been actively trying to discourage Hae’s California friends from looking for her a week after her disappearance, when, according to Adnan, no one was concerned she was gone.
Adnan had no reason for lending Jay his car. The idea that he was concerned about Jay getting a birthday present for Stephanie is laughable.
Adnan lied about asking Hae for a ride, contradicting the testimony of Krista and Debbie.
Adnan wrote “I’m going to kill” on a break-up note from Hae telling him to back off. (If you think that’s no biggie, let me know how you feel about it when you see your daughters writing a note like that and then discover the recipient’s decorated it with “I’m going to kill.”)
Adnan exhibited other stalkery behaviour towards Hae. She hid from him at school and wrote in her diary that he was possessive.
Adnan never tried to contact Hae after January 13th even though he called her three times the night before.
There is no explanation for the Nisha call other than an improbable butt dial.
Adnan’s cell phone records place him in Leakin Park burying Hae’s body.
 
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Going to answer the ones I can come up with answers pretty quickly.

1. There have been shows on TV where they have staged serious incidents. When asked questions about it later on, they often could not remember important details. Edit: This was on the program Unsolved History.
2. Nobody knows who killed the boys with the West Memphis Three yet did not stop them from being framed by another kid at the juvenile facility. Another case is where the guy who framed James Barton also appears to have had no reason. Jay did have pending drug charges that later faded away. Edit: If it was one of those two others who killed Hae, I do not think Jay was involved, just he was convinced by the cops to help him.
3. Adnan had loaned Jay his car in the past and so had other students at the school.
4. As far as I know, Adnan did not lie about asking Hae for a ride. He seems to actually though have been asking a ride to the track, something which he had in the past, not a ride home.
5. I am not real sure on the letter. It was from November after all and there seems to be a lot of confusion involving it. There is also the usual teenage drama involved.
6. For all the "stalking" talked about in the diary, there seems to be more innuendo than any real references. The hiding in school seems to not be anything as serious as what some people suggest.
7. Don also never tried to call Hae again.
8. You have never butt dialed a phone? That really seems to be the best explanation.
9. the whole area involved in all of these calls is just a few square miles. Sometimes cell phones will hit other towers. The cops did not do a comprehensive cell phone record and it was done eight or nine months after January. The networks at that time were under constant upgrades.
In addition, the best evidence we have based on livity is that the body was buried much later than the time he could have been in the park and Jay later (last year) changed the time frame himself to midnight.
 
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Desert Fox said:
Going to answer the ones I can come up with answers pretty quickly.

1. There have been shows on TV where they have staged serious incidents. When asked questions about it later on, they often could not remember important details.
2. Nobody knows who killed the boys with the West Memphis Three yet did not stop them from being framed by another kid at the juvenile facility. Another case is where the guy who framed James Barton also appears to have had no reason. Jay did have pending drug charges that later faded away.
3. Adnan had loaned Jay his car in the past and so had other students at the school.
4. As far as I know, Adnan did not lie about asking Hae for a ride. He seems to actually though have been asking a ride to the track, something which he had in the past, not a ride home.
5. I am not real sure on the letter. It was from November after all and there seems to be a lot of confusion involving it. There is also the usual teenage drama involved.
6. For all the "stalking" talked about in the diary, there seems to be more innuendo than any real references. The hiding in school seems to not be anything as serious as what some people suggest.
7. Don also never tried to call Hae again.
8. You have never butt dialed a phone? That really seems to be the best explanation.
9. the whole area involved in all of these calls is just a few square miles. Sometimes cell phones will hit other towers. The cops did not do a comprehensive cell phone record and it was done eight or nine months after January. The networks at that time were under constant upgrades.
In addition, the best evidence we have based on livity is that the body was buried much later than the time he could have been in the park and Jay later (last year) changed the time frame himself to midnight.
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Thanks, I don't know the case, but usually Charlie Wilkes is hard to dismiss.
I see Chris Halkides is pro doubt, so I will leave it to others for meantime.
 
Samson said:
Thanks, I don't know the case, but usually Charlie Wilkes is hard to dismiss.
I see Chris Halkides is pro doubt, so I will leave it to others for meantime.
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With Amanda and Raff, I am 99% on the innocent camp, Norfolk Four 99% of innocence, West Memphis III 90% to 95% innocence, Adnan 70% to 80% innocence.

If he was seen in her car leaving school, that would change my opinion greatly. Nobody also appears to have seen him driving around in her car. Now, human memory is just too bad to trust somebody coming forward now.

I did make some minor edits to what I wrote originally.
 
Desert Fox said:
If Jay led the police to the car or if Jay led the car to the police seems unclear. In addition, the location of the car seems to be in a location that is Jay's stomping ground.
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I find the idea that he just randomly stumbled onto his friend's ex-girlfriends car to be pretty unbelievable. From what I gather it was semi hidden in a grass field and obviously wasn't spotted by anyone else or the police who were actively looking for it. Hae was only loosely acquainted with him, her car was a totally nondescript grey Japanese compact. To me it's outrageous to suggest Jay knew where the car was for any other reason than he put it there, or was told it was there by the person who put it there. I mean anything is possible, but this isn't "beyond reasonable doubt" possible.

This constrains the crime scenario. Jay must be involved. The problem is it's very difficult to imagine him being involved without Adnan. He would have had to show up at the school at closing time and find Hae to follow her, then get her to pull over somewhere, then kill her for absolutely no reason, etc. Then hope that Adnan wont bother to show up at track practice or have any sort of alibi. It just doesn't really work for me.
 
Well, somebody randomly stumbled on a car they previously owned after I bought it. If that one item went away, are any of the other items unable to be explained away relatively easily? To be honest, dumb luck happens sometimes.

With regards to the location, there were other cars parked next to it. Could not have been that hidden. Do not forget that it is pretty clear that he had connections on the street - I would not know who to get weed from and certainly there could have been some rumors. It also appears as if he did not lead them to the car right way and his first location was wrong

What I was really suggesting is that the police already knew where the car was and it may be supported by this video. Police will often inadvertently feed the suspect such details.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkUhKIuawTQ

Edit: Should also note that the car location was within a mile or two of where the body was found (By using a map and comping the scale and calculating based on a right triangle, I get around 8200 feet as the crow flies). Simple street by street searching and diligence by the police would find the car eventually. Also, it is pretty close to Patrick's house. Something like a half mile to a mile (By doing the same thing, I get around 5100 feet direct distance.) If he hung around at Patrick's, not quite so strange.
 
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I want to add that Serial Dynastic takes on every one of Ann Brocklehurst's points and pretty much demolishes them. Might be worth a listen for you.
Edit: His answers are not the same as mine but we have different takes. I don't think that Jay was ultimately involved while he does.
Listening to her actually argue her points, I am not real impressed by them.
 
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Didn't Jay tell his girlfriend, Jen or something, that he was involved in the murder before anyone even knew it was a murder?
 
bagels said:
Didn't Jay tell his girlfriend, Jen or something, that he was involved in the murder before anyone even knew it was a murder?
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Err, I would argue that one cannot trust when something happened or how it happened. Jay may have very well approached Jen, "The cops are going to sell me down the river for these drug charges unless I frame Adnan. I need your help."

Jay may be involved but my feel is that he is just unscrupulous and sees nothing wrong with selling out a friend to avoid jail.

I still think Serial Dynasty is worth a listen
http://serialdynasty.podomatic.com/entry/2015-08-09T10_21_18-07_00
 
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It seems the crux of establishing Jay as a flaky witness vs a complete liar totally coerced by the police, comes down to did he know the location of the car before the police or not. So I've been looking more into this.

This document implies the police were still looking for the car on the 27th. It contradicts the news report posted earlier, but while they might purposely misdirect the public I doubt they would waste the transit authorities time asking for help looking for a car they already knew the location of, I can think of no reason for that.

That same evening of the 27th (into the 28th) is when they first interview Jay, here's the transcript. Jay says the car is on Edmondson Avenue four blocks down from where he met Adnan and he can lead them to it.

This still looks to me more like Jay knew the location of the car before the police.
 
bagels said:
It seems the crux of establishing Jay as a flaky witness vs a complete liar totally coerced by the police, comes down to did he know the location of the car before the police or not. So I've been looking more into this.

This document implies the police were still looking for the car on the 27th. It contradicts the news report posted earlier, but while they might purposely misdirect the public I doubt they would waste the transit authorities time asking for help looking for a car they already knew the location of, I can think of no reason for that.

That same evening of the 27th (into the 28th) is when they first interview Jay, here's the transcript. Jay says the car is on Edmondson Avenue four blocks down from where he met Adnan and he can lead them to it.

This still looks to me more like Jay knew the location of the car before the police.
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I think it might be best if I post the map I found of the locations
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=zERAsrjje-sU.kQFffQE6h2vk

From what I understand, Jay admitted on the stand during cross examination that the location of Hae's car would be in the midst of his normal routine and that he would recognize her car. If that is correct, it indicates that it would not be any special knowledge.

Do not forget that most speculation was that he at least sold some drugs, that often means a certain amount of cruising of the streets. In addition, on the map, you can see that Patrick's house (one of his drug sources) is nearby. Jen's house is also in that same basic vicinity. I think if we read the clues, that is an area he kind of hung around a lot.

You could very well be right and Jay is involved in Hae's murder. One long suggested idea was that Hae was being a busybody, caught Jay having sex with Jen (Jay was suppose to be dating Stephenie - a friend of both Hae and Adnan), and there was a confrontation. I don't know if that is what occurred but it is at least plausible.
 
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