Greeks vote to reject incumbants, austerity

[bit_pattern]

Gee I love Argentinean aphorisms, esp. as translated by Alec!

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[LondonJohn]

No, you've overestimated the veracity of opinion polling though. It takes a special kind of special to make confident predictions from short term polling that virtually everyone else in the world was saying showed the result to be unpredictable

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Huh?

According to the BBC, the Greek Interior Ministry has released official results from the actual votes cast (and nearly all the votes have now been counted) showing 61% for "No" and 39% for "Yes". In a binary vote, that's a very decisive outcome. And there's no way that the handful of votes left to be counted will alter these numbers by anything more than a tiny (<1%) amount.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33403665

 

[bit_pattern]

Huh?

According to the BBC, the Greek Interior Ministry has released official results from the actual votes cast (and nearly all the votes have now been counted) showing 61% for "No" and 39% for "Yes". In a binary vote, that's a very decisive outcome. And there's no way that the handful of votes left to be counted will alter these numbers by anything more than a tiny (<1%) amount.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33403665

I was talking about last week's opinion polling from which McHrozni was confidently predicting a strong yes vote.

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[bit_pattern]

I find it amusing that some apparently intelligent people in this thread think that a country blowing off the money it has borrowed is no big deal.

I find it amusing that some apparently intelligent people in this thread think that the problem can be reduced to cartoonishly simple black-and-white terms, while completely ignoring the nuanced arguments *actually* being made, and basing their simplistic arguments on flawed analogies that falsely equivocate sovereign debt with personal debt.

 

[Puppycow]

Tsipras Triumphs as Greece Votes Against Austerity

Alexis Tsipras @tsipras_eu

Today's #referendum doesn't have winners or losers. It is a great victory, in and of itself. #Greece #Greferendum

Alexis Tsipras @tsipras_eu

The mandate you've given me does not call for a break with Europe, but rather gives me greater negotiating strength. #Greece #Greferendum

So does this actually put Greece in a stronger negotiating position somehow?

“Our immediate priority is to restore the Greek banking system,” Tsipras, 40, said in a speech after the result emerged. “I’m confident that the ECB fully realizes the humanitarian side of the crisis in our country.”

He seems to think that the ECB will have to continue propping up Greek banks for humanitarian reasons. Maybe he's right, I don't know.

 

[bit_pattern]

So does this actually put Greece in a stronger negotiating position somehow?

It's certainly a sharp repudiation of the Troika's apparent regime-change strategy, which will probably have to be reconsidered now.

 

[Ziggurat]

Tsipras Triumphs as Greece Votes Against Austerity

The vote won't ultimately matter. It's too late. The gods of the copybook heading are already on the march.

 

[jhunter1163]

The Greek people want an end to austerity but they also, by a three-to-one margin, want to stay in the Euro. I think that these are mutually exclusive at this point and probably have been for some time.

 

[bit_pattern]

The Greek people want an end to austerity but they also, by a three-to-one margin, want to stay in the Euro. I think that these are mutually exclusive at this point and probably have been for some time.

I don't know about that. If the EU can't address the deep structural flaws in the Union that brought Greece (and Spain, and Portugal and Italy etc) to this point the the whole edifice will eventually come crashing down. The consequences of that are unthinkable.

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[dudalb]

I don't know about that. If the EU can't address the deep structural flaws in the Union that brought Greece (and Spain, and Portugal and Italy etc) to this point the the whole edifice will eventually come crashing down. The consequences of that are unthinkable.

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The only mistake the EU made was loaning money to what any private banker would have warned was a bad risk.


The only people happy about this is the usual Anti Capitalist crowd..you know the one who still believe in Karl Marx economics are right....

 

[dudalb]

The Greek people want an end to austerity but they also, by a three-to-one margin, want to stay in the Euro. I think that these are mutually exclusive at this point and probably have been for some time.

They won't even escape Austerity .although it might be called "a severe economic depression for Greece" instead of Austerity.

IMHO they have been sold a bill of goods by a group of Left Wing Demogogues..and they will regret the decision.

 

[McHrozni]

They won't even escape Austerity .although it might be called "a severe economic depression for Greece" instead of Austerity.

IMHO they have been sold a bill of goods by a group of Left Wing Demogogues..and they will regret the decision.

Tsipras will then blame the evil Troika for the damage done to Greece. Some will actually be stupid enough to believe him. Some already are.

McHrozni

 

[bit_pattern]

Varoufakis has resigned

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

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[bit_pattern]

The only mistake the EU made was loaning money to what any private banker would have warned was a bad risk.


The only people happy about this is the usual Anti Capitalist crowd..you know the one who still believe in Karl Marx economics are right....

Yup. This is exactly the sort of cartoonishly simplistic rhetoric I was talking about. Some arguments are too stupid to bother engaging with

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[McHrozni]

Varoufakis has resigned

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/

That's interesting. It'll certainly help the talks more than the referendum did.

McHrozni

 

[GlennB]

He seems to think that the ECB will have to continue propping up Greek banks for humanitarian reasons. Maybe he's right, I don't know.

If they don't provide liquidity in the very short term then Greece moves a big step closer to printing a parallel, internal currency. We'll soon see whether the Troika's political manoeuvring of the last months was actually geared to provoking a Grexit or was only about regime change. The latter has failed, in spades.

Of opinion polling - bookie Paddy Power has some egg on its face after its decision last week to preemptively pay out those who'd bet on 'Yes', though 'a five-figure sum' would be small beer to them.

 

[McHrozni]

If they don't provide liquidity in the very short term then Greece moves a big step closer to printing a parallel, internal currency. We'll soon see whether the Troika's political manoeuvring of the last months was actually geared to provoking a Grexit or was only about regime change. The latter has failed, in spades.

A Grexit could also spawn a regime change. Greeks favor retaining the Euro at about 2:1 margin:

But despite the deprivations, they still trust the euro and want to keep it. In the latest poll, done over the weekend during perhaps the greatest financial chaos Greece has seen in recent years, 57% of the respondents wanted to keep the euro and wanted their government to make a deal with the creditors; only 29% wanted a rupture from the Eurozone.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/06/30/why-greeks-still-want-to-keep-the-euro-in-one-chart/

The article also explains why that is. Not to mention that if Greece does introduce the Drachma because it refuses to bring it's deficits under control, it will mean funding the deficit by monetary expansion for the foreseeable future. We do know what that brings, right? It starts with "i" and later upgrades to "hy...".

McHrozni

 

[Childlike Empress]

I shall wear the creditors’ loathing with pride.

They interviewed Martin Schulz on prime time German TV yesterday and he didn't even bring himself to say Varoufakis' name, said two times something like "Tsipras and that guy who is his finance minister"...

Another smart move and I'm sure we'll hear from him. He has all the internal meetings on tape and as a private citizen nobody can blame him for bringing deceitfulness of certain individuals to the public's attention, can they?

 

[GlennB]

deleted

 

[psionl0]

Not to mention that if Greece does introduce the Drachma because it refuses to bring it's deficits under control, it will mean funding the deficit by monetary expansion for the foreseeable future. We do know what that brings, right? It starts with "i" and later upgrades to "hy...".

This is true as long as the banking system remains unchanged. However, Greece could be in a position to introduce "sovereign money" - money that the banks can't create simply by making loans.

A Sovereign Money system could bring a number of benefits to Greece. Not only would it offer a better and safer banking system, but it would also give Greece a much better opportunity to recover from its on-going crisis. By not relying on bank lending and increased levels of debt to grow the economy, Sovereign Money offers the Greek people a more feasible chance of achieving prosperity in the short-term, as well as making such prosperity more sustainable over the long-term.

If the Drachma needs to be re-established, it would make little sense to base it on a debt-based monetary framework that has failed time and again throughout history. For the last three or four centuries, Europe, Asia, Latin America and North America have been subjected to pro-cyclical booms and busts, making millions unemployed and wiping out years of growth. This is largely because the monetary framework of these regions allows banks to create money in the form of deposits, every time they issue a loan.

http://positivemoney.org/2015/07/grexit-seize-opportunity/