Greeks vote to reject incumbants, austerity

[dudalb]

I think the Greek People..and a lot of people on this forum...are going to get a harsh lesson in economic realities.
I still maintains what it amounts to is people hoping there is a way for massive deficit spending by a government to continue forever without consequence.

 

[dudalb]

Robert Heinlein the writer was right:

Democracies begin to die when the people discover then they can vote themselves Bread and Circuses.

 

[Oystein]

...I will say it in Argentinean: "No les veo uñas de guitarrero" (I don't see them having [the indispensable] finger nails to play the guitar)

Hehe being a guitar player who has almost grown his nails back after breaking them short with garden work three weeks ago or so, I like that - and I like the rest of your vividly written analysis.

 

[Giz]

Robert Heinlein the writer was right:

Democracies begin to die when the people discover then they can vote themselves Bread and Circuses.

A variation on:

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.”
― Alexis de Tocqueville

On the result though:
"Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said in a televised address. Voters had granted him "not a mandate against Europe, but a mandate to find a sustainable solution that will take us out of this vicious circle of austerity". "

Somehow I don't think that's the way it will play with the EU.

 

[dudalb]

Sounds as if Tsipras will continue the bread and circuses.....

All I can say is quote Benjamin Franklin:

":Experience keeps a very expensive school,but fools will learn in no other".

Saying F.U. to the EU will play well with people of a certain political view, but will not end happly for the Greek people,who, I feel have been sold a bill of goods by the Greek left...that Governments can find a way to have massive deficit spending without bad consequences.
And I see the Anti Capitalistshre are big fans of Tsipras...though as usual they dodge the question of what they would replace markets with.......

"Austerity" is coming to Greece no matter what.

 

[GlennB]

A variation on:

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.”
― Alexis de Tocqueville

On the result though:
"Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said in a televised address. Voters had granted him "not a mandate against Europe, but a mandate to find a sustainable solution that will take us out of this vicious circle of austerity". "

Somehow I don't think that's the way it will play with the EU.

Even though the IMF publicly agreed with the long-held Syriza position just a few days ago? You know, the one that Lagarde was willing to discuss before she was slapped down by Dijsselbloem?

There will be massive breaches among the Troika elements, and within elements within those elements. Are you aware of Deutsche Bank's derivatives exposure to a Grexit, for example?

It would be hugely amusing if Syriza said: Hey, we've made dozens of flights to Brussels and elsewhere to discuss these matters. How about you fly to Athens this time?

 

[aleCcowaN]

Hehe being a guitar player who has almost grown his nails back after breaking them short with garden work three weeks ago or so, I like that - and I like the rest of your vividly written analysis.

Thanks, I appreciate it

 

[aleCcowaN]

"Austerity" is coming to Greece no matter what.

And, what have they been having lately in Greece? Maybe you meant "Austerity II: The Austerity Reloaded".

I see progress: You are using now the Quotable Quotes and page-foot-padding of all the Reader's Digest issues from the 40s to the 70s. That's quite fine.

The referendum wasn't about approving a law saying "Now we declare the happiness of our people!". The referendum was playing the only trump card Tsipras and his bunch had: an appeal to emotion. Wasn't the whole pan-European project about the solidarity of the peoples, yada, yada, ... together, yada, yada ...? There's an additional component: Greece gets some leverage from creating a whole range of reactions in every single country.

So, if I were a Greek patriot in office and with responsibility, I would try to get the best third possible bailout, and I immediately make the country to leave the Eurozone. The consequence will be my effigy becoming the most sold pincushion in the world, as everyone would be practising their voodoo on it and sending their regards to my mother. But 10 years in the future Greece would be very well and plenty reconciled with her continental travel companions.

 

[Fudbucker]

So what happens next? Greek banks are running out of Euro's and it doesn't look like anyone's going to extend a lifeline at this point.

Is their national debt in Euro's? Are they going to default on all those bonds and start printing Drachma's?

 

[dudalb]

So what happens next? Greek banks are running out of Euro's and it doesn't look like anyone's going to extend a lifeline at this point.

Is their national debt in Euro's? Are they going to default on all those bonds and start printing Drachma's?

I think the idea is to pay off the loans with hugely devalued drachmas;problem is this will wreck what little credit Greece has left. It's a cure worse then the disease.

I find it amusing that some apparently intelligent people in this thread think that a country blowing off the money it has borrowed is no big deal.

 

[aleCcowaN]

So what happens next? Greek banks are running out of Euro's and it doesn't look like anyone's going to extend a lifeline at this point.

Is their national debt in Euro's? Are they going to default on all those bonds and start printing Drachma's?

Greece shouldn't and wouldn't default on her own bonds now. There are few and they imply no large payments in the few years to come.

In fact Greece may default on almost all her debts but her own bonds in Euros. They need to stop paying everyone else and pay those bonds, so they are able to get fresh money by 2018-2020 and pay the rest of her creditors.

The default is with international institutions which don't really need the money (in the case of the ECB, the money to be defaulted doesn't even exist). The default has no other effect that the default itself -not a minor thing- but it wouldn't propagate further.

 

[Fudbucker]

I think the idea is to pay off the loans with hugely devalued drachmas;problem is this will wreck what little credit Greece has left. It's a cure worse then the disease.

I find it amusing that some apparently intelligent people in this thread think that a country blowing off the money it has borrowed is no big deal.

Didn't Greece default once before, in recent history?

So how would it work if they go back to drachmas? Say they owe $250 billion in Euro-based debt. Would they just peg the drachma to the Euro and print the money needed to pay the debt?

I have no idea how international finance works.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I think the idea is to pay off the loans with hugely devalued drachmas;problem is this will wreck what little credit Greece has left. It's a cure worse then the disease.

You don't have the slightest idea of what you're talking about. "I think the idea is to pay off the loans with hugely devalued drachmas", what a laugh! That has the epistemological value of "when I grow up I'm gonna be an astronaut or a fireman". <snip> You didn't read that notion of yours anywhere. You don't have a single piece of journalism suggesting that -because it would be ridiculous-. You have no evidence nor hint of it. <snip>

Edited by Loss Leader: 

Edited for Rules 0/12. Improve the tone of the debate or further mod action may be warranted.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I have no idea how international finance works.

Really?

There seems to be some confusion between a forum and a chat room.

 

[Fudbucker]

Really?

There seems to be some confusion between a forum and a chat room.

I don't understand where the hostility is coming from. Could you address peoples' comments without the vitriol, please? I'd like to hear what you have to say, not put you on ignore because you can't engage in a civil discussion.

 

[aleCcowaN]

I don't understand where the hostility is coming from. Could you address peoples' comments without the vitriol, please? I'd like to hear what you have to say, not put you on ignore because you can't engage in a civil discussion.

Freedom is free, so do whatever pleases you. You have my blessing.

If you don't know about something simply don't speculate in chain or echoing. Google will inform you how many times Greece, Germany and the United States defaulted on their public debts (you might be surprised). And your common sense will inform you if some hypothesis is worth of being followed or not.

"Greece will pay with a pig on a leash", like some farmer paid to the doctor in the nineteenth century, would make infinitely more sense than that fantasy in dudalb's post.

And about vitriol, if bleach doesn't remove the stain and it continues to grow, my esteemed forum member...

 

[Beerina]

Robert Heinlein the writer was right:

Democracies begin to die when the people discover then they can vote themselves Bread and Circuses.

It's a lot older than Heinlein:

Roman politicians passed laws in 140 B.C. to keep the votes of poorer citizens, by introducing a grain dole: giving out cheap food and entertainment, "bread and circuses", became the most effective way to rise to power.

...

Juvenal here makes reference to the Roman practice of providing free wheat to Roman citizens as well as costly circus games and other forms of entertainment as a means of gaining political power

Never forget that dynamic. BF Skinner wouldn't. Follow the behavior, not the internal mental gymnastics. He was 40 years ahead of his memetic time.

 

[LondonJohn]

Greece shouldn't and wouldn't default on her own bonds now. There are few and they imply no large payments in the few years to come.

In fact Greece may default on almost all her debts but her own bonds in Euros. They need to stop paying everyone else and pay those bonds, so they are able to get fresh money by 2018-2020 and pay the rest of her creditors.

The default is with international institutions which don't really need the money (in the case of the ECB, the money to be defaulted doesn't even exist). The default has no other effect that the default itself -not a minor thing- but it wouldn't propagate further.

Of course the money exists. Nearly all of it went to pay back Greece's original private creditors. Ask those institutions if the ECB money really exists, and they'll show you their balance sheets and loan books to prove you wrong.

If a father bails out his son who's defaulted on a large loan from the bank, and the father lends the son enough money to pay the bank back its loan, that doesn't mean the father's loan money "doesn't exist". Nor of course does it lessen the son's obligation to repay his father.

 

[LondonJohn]

You don't have the slightest idea of what you're talking about. "I think the idea is to pay off the loans with hugely devalued drachmas", what a laugh! That has the epistemological value of "when I grow up I'm gonna be an astronaut or a fireman". Your ability to make things up without blinking is alarming. You didn't read that notion of yours anywhere. You don't have a single piece of journalism suggesting that -because it would be ridiculous-. You have no evidence nor hint of it. You simply made it up.

You remind me of the bloke who went to the park and as he saw a man looking to a dead pigeon on the ground he approached him and pompously declared "the heart ... it was the heart"

I'd add: why the hostility?

When Greece exits the Euro (which I'd now say is inevitable - the only issue is how it will be politically presented across the Eurozone, what the formal repercussions on things like CDSs will be, and the formal timetable) and issues its "New Drachma" currency, then creditors such as the ECB will effectively be forced to accept repayment of sorts in the new currency. And as part of that conversion of the debt, Greece's creditors will have to accept pennies in the pound. Greece will effectively be declared bankrupt.

If the "New Drachma" is properly valued against the Euro and other currencies, then this (together with the debt conversion and write-down) be probably the best chance for Greece to recover in the medium term. Exports and tourism - both of which are significant drivers of growth in Greece - will immediately benefit from large devaluation, and hopefully the public will vote out those clowns of Syriza soon enough. Greece needs very tight fiscal discipline and firm government at this point - not a bunch of jokers promising voters the Earth.

 

[bit_pattern]

Apparently I've overestimated Greek intelligence, the referenum looks a strong NO.

Banks are going to be bust come tuesday.

McHrozni

No, you've overestimated the veracity of opinion polling though. It takes a special kind of special to make confident predictions from short term polling that virtually everyone else in the world was saying showed the result to be unpredictable

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk