Continuation Part 16: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[Kauffer]

I have wondered why Rudi did not remain in the bathroom for a long time. A wiser burglar might have remained there in silence for a long time, hoping not to be noticed. A wiser burglar might have waited there an hour after Meredith had gone to sleep before trying to sneak to the front door.

Perhaps the bathroom door was open or ajar. The laundry area is located right outside the bathroom door where Rudi was. Perhaps Meredith approached and saw him. Or smelled the presence of the bad kabob, indicating that someone was in there. Perhaps she was elsewhere, heard a noise, called out expecting it to be one if her housemates, and got no female response.

Or perhaps Meredith did not know anyone else was in the flat. She still had her jacket on when attacked. Had not yet tried to call her mother again. Had not moved laundry. That is when she was attacked - apparently within a few minutes of returning home.

That timing suggests she either compromised Rudi or that he tried the front door, couldn't get out, and decided to attack her. He did not hide in the bathroom for an hour - not even many minutes. He was compromised early, or tried to leave early and finding the door locked, he attacked.

After Kercher came home, it seems to me, there may still have been an opportunity for her to have emerged unscathed. I don't think we can rule out the possibility that Guede may have tried to escape through the front door, possibly while Kercher was still unaware of his presence and that the door being locked forced him back inside the apartment. Perhaps he then thought of making his exit through Romanelli's window as a plan B and only at this point was Kercher alerted to his presence. Indeed, even if Kercher had walked in and they had seen each other immediately, there still remains, in my view, a greater likelihood that he would have tried to flee and avoid a confrontation rather than engage one.

So I find it difficult to believe that Guede, once he was aware of Kercher's presence, would have deliberately set out to attack her unless he felt he had no other option. Therefore, I cannot rule out the possibility that a likely cause of the attack was in fact Kercher herself - either becoming noisily hysterical or actually, bravely and recklessly attempting, physically to restrain him.

Couldn't the early moments of the knife assault by Guede actually be interpreted as an effort simply to quiet her rather than, at that point, inferred as evidence of an immediate decision to kill her? Perhaps Kercher's determined resistance as time went on drove him further, to the point where he became more desperate and more angry.

In other words, might Kercher have been the architect of her own demise? Might Guede's actions, at first, have been defensive rather than aggressive? In Guede's past, we have no evidence of sexual assault, violence or murder. We do have evidence only of relatively petty crime and we also have evidence of confrontations with others in the course of this activity, which did not end violently. Why should this occasion have followed a different pattern other than for the existence of very specific differences - Guede caught and cornered by a locked door frustrating a means of escape and by a belligerent or at least highly charged and emotional, loudly vocal complaining adversary?

 

[js202]

In other words, might Kercher have been the architect of her own demise? Might Guede's actions, at first, have been defensive rather than aggressive? In Guede's past, we have no evidence of sexual assault, violence or murder. We do have evidence only of relatively petty crime and we also have evidence of confrontations with others in the course of this activity, which did not end violently. Why should this occasion have followed a different pattern other than for the existence of very specific differences - Guede caught and cornered by a locked door frustrating a means of escape and by a belligerent or at least highly charged and emotional, loudly vocal complaining adversary?

Well, as you know, we have the examples of Tramontano and del Prato. With both individuals, the potential threat of a knife was involved. Tramontano was, of course, a man, and after Guede brandished his knife against Tramontano's chair, obviously he felt the best course was to remove himself from the premises ASAP thus avoiding the possibility he might be physically overwhelmed and apprehended. With del Prato, he was outnumbered and it was broad daylight.

Kercher, unlike Tramontano was an attractive woman, physically inferior to a Guede known to have poor luck with women. With Kercher's unexpected arrival home, perhaps circumstances conspired at the cottage so that Guede's fantasy system of coming into the places he burgled and making himself at home suddenly included the impulse he wanted to physically possess her.

 

[Grinder]

For that theory to be true - that this was a botched rape ambush rather than a burglary gone bad - Rudi would have to be confident that only one woman would come home while he waited inside. Four women lived in the flat. Suppose Filomena and her boyfriend had come home? Suppose several women returned together? Suppose they brought other friends back to the cottage? Rudi could have no confidence that he would encounter one lone woman on a holiday evening.

If Rudi was looking to attack/rape a resident there, wouldn't it be safer and easier for him to wait in darkness near the front door and observe who is coming home and then rush her or talk his way in the front door? At least that would allow him to retreat if several people came home together.

There is evidence that Rudi was at times pushy towards women. No evidence that he ever assaulted a woman.

If Rudi wanted to meet women, he could do so at the clubs. He appeared to be a skilled dancer.

Spot on. Not only the girls but the guys downstairs. Is there any information that indicates he knew the boys, all of them, would be gone that whole night?

Was Rudi suddenly off his head? My reading of his past, he was a lazy guy that lied about going to school. He had a job and a girlfriend he lived with in Milan before the restaurant closed and he lost his job and the girlfriend. He moved back to Perugia and had a few part time jobs and somehow acquired an apartment. I think his foster mom was still helping him. A few "friends" came out about behavior with women and coke use. I wonder if these people exaggerated as the british girls did to Amanda. His foster sister didn't say anything extreme about him. My impression was that she never disliked him.

The story goes that Rudi was on the downs. He had no money. No friends. He was breaking into one place after another as a lone wolf. He stole at night and sold the stuff during the day. He stole stupid stuff he couldn't get much money for, so remained too poor to pay his rent. One guy is pretty sure he caught him in his house with a knife at night. Had him thrown out of Merlin (also Domus?) by a guy named Pisco, the owner of Merlin. Pisco was interviewed early but before Rudi. To my knowledge he has never substantiated Cristian's story. Without question he was caught in the nursery with merchandise stolen from the lawyers' office. Recently I read about a fugue state he was in (true crime source). After looking it up, it seemed to me that if he were in that state he would have had a strong defense under 520.3 (just guessing) yet I haven't seen anything yet about that outside a true crime novel. Well except RW's PMF Skype call. I will welcome the full AKC.com translation. Does he come off totally insane. How does this totally contradictory story come out of him. After apparently only a few minutes he hangs up because he can't afford the Internet time. How (money)and why would he talk in public, as RW asked, and for hours?

In addition it is supposedly highly likely that the PLE knew him well, maybe even his MO and perhaps even an informant (unpaid and no alleged targets which raises the question: How does a lone wolf, antisocial guy get info?).

I believe he had friends going back to his young school days. I don't believe he had a history of violence. I don't think he was a loner.

Some things have never fit together.

Still wonder what Koko was doing there.

Before someone misreads this, I am in no way doing a Barbie and saying either kid knew anything.

What was his comment about hearing noises downstairs all about?

 

[Kauffer]

Well, as you know, we have the examples of Tramontano and del Prato. With both individuals, the potential threat of a knife was involved. Tramontano was, of course, a man, and after Guede brandished his knife against Tramontano's chair, obviously he felt the best course was to remove himself from the premises ASAP thus avoiding the possibility he might be physically overwhelmed and apprehended. With del Prato, he was outnumbered and it was broad daylight.

Kercher, unlike Tramontano was an attractive woman, physically inferior to a Guede known to have poor luck with women. With Kercher's unexpected arrival home, perhaps circumstances conspired at the cottage so that Guede's fantasy system of coming into the places he burgled and making himself at home suddenly included the impulse he wanted to physically possess her.

It's possible of course, but I don't think so and not before she was all but dead. I'm not sure that what we know of Guede's past would permit us to argue that this was a young man with very poor impulse control. There's evidence of planning in what he does and there are things he did not do. We have no reports as far as I am aware, amongst the female clientele of Perugua's nightspots of sexual assaults that could be linked to him or anyone else for that matter and not just in Perugia.

I think it far more likely he was there solely for burglary and even when it went wrong, his first inclination would have been to flee. I cannot account for his conduct after the murder other than to suggest that this, the most extraordinary, devastating almost surreal thing to have happened in his life has changed and affected him in a manner that would be highly unpredictable - a temporary insanity? A peculiar effect on his adrenal system or his autonomic nervous system? I really don't know. But in his normal state, as far as we can discern, he did not attack women for sexual gratification.

 

[js202]

It's possible of course, but I don't think so and not before she was all but dead. I'm not sure that what we know of Guede's past would permit us to argue that this was a young man with very poor impulse control. There's evidence of planning in what he does and there are things he did not do. We have no reports as far as I am aware, amongst the female clientele of Perugua's nightspots of sexual assaults that could be linked to him or anyone else for that matter and not just in Perugia.

I think it far more likely he was there solely for burglary and even when it went wrong, his first inclination would have been to flee. I cannot account for his conduct after the murder other than to suggest that this, the most extraordinary, devastating almost surreal thing to have happened in his life has changed and affected him in a manner that would be highly unpredictable - a temporary insanity? A peculiar effect on his adrenal system or his autonomic nervous system? I really don't know. But in his normal state, as far as we can discern, he did not attack women for sexual gratification.

Yes, but of course serial killers - and violent mass murderers like Aurora, CO's James Holmes - privately nurse obsessions about which even their closest intimates may know nothing. I'm not saying this is necessarily the case with Guede, but I suspect he may have become aroused when he saw Kercher. In fact, he may have already been aroused by being in/breaking into a cottage inhabited by four women, two of whom he had previously interacted with and knew to be attractive. Or the combination of contact, resistance and violence between Kercher and him may have aroused him sexually.

What the evidence - and common reason - tells us is that Guede broke in, was interrupted by Kercher, and, before he left the premises, chose to murder and sexually violate her. Beyond these knowable facts, all the rest is speculation, of course.

 

[zotz]

I really don't think exiting the way he came is realistic. Descending is hazardous, and adrenaline and fright will have taken over. Furthermore, in a deserted quiet house his antennae would predict certain discovery of that attempt. Armchair mountaineers can rationalise, but I know I would have tried to find an alternative way. I am personally sure the loquacious Rudy tried to talk his way out of the situation as he did with Del Prato.
He figured everyone was away or partying. They all knew it was a holiday friday except... Meredith...

Young men think differently than we do. Twelve feet isn't a big deal to an athlete. Young people do this sort of stuff for fun (I mean climbing and jumping). And he would not necessarily have known that he could not have escaped through the front door. Furthermore, I believe there was a path leading down the hill that he eventually did use. Rudy was not a smart burglar. If he were then he would have used gloves. Criminals begin by making dumb mistakes and they gradually evolve their techniques. The possibility that one of the women would come alone home had to have been one of the possibilities in his calculations. It isn't clear that the Italian boys knew his real name.

 

[Numbers]

Yes, but of course serial killers - and violent mass murderers like Aurora, CO's James Holmes - privately nurse obsessions about which even their closest intimates may know nothing. I'm not saying this is necessarily the case with Guede, but I suspect he may have become aroused when he saw Kercher. In fact, he may have already been aroused by being in/breaking into a cottage inhabited by four women, two of whom he had previously interacted with and knew to be attractive. Or the combination of contact, resistance and violence between Kercher and him may have aroused him sexually.

What the evidence - and common reason - tells us is that Guede broke in, was interrupted by Kercher, and, before he left the premises, chose to murder and sexually violate her. Beyond these knowable facts, all the rest is speculation, of course.

This post accurately sums up what is known on this topic.

In terms of the possibility that Guede's mental state allowing him to be considered legally not culpable in an Italian court, I do not know how such a defense is judged in Italy. It certainly was not offered. In the US, unless the mental state of the defendant could be considered to have prevented him from knowing right from wrong, there would be no possibility - in most jurisdictions (of the 50 states & federal government) - of a "guilty but insane" verdict. (The "not guilty by reason of insanity" verdict having been mostly eliminated in the aftermath of the attempted assassination of President Reagan, IIRC.)

 

[Grinder]

Well, as you know, we have the examples of Tramontano and del Prato. With both individuals, the potential threat of a knife was involved. Tramontano was, of course, a man, and after Guede brandished his knife against Tramontano's chair, obviously he felt the best course was to remove himself from the premises ASAP thus avoiding the possibility he might be physically overwhelmed and apprehended. With del Prato, he was outnumbered and it was broad daylight.

First of all not even CT said he was sure the alleged intruder was Rudi. Had he been a witness against the kids each and every one of the PI/FOA people here would be screaming that he didn't file a police report, didn't come forward for months, that his spotting Rudi in Domus/Merlin hasn't been corroborated by Pisco or anyone else and there is no history of him carrying a knife.

Prato found him and he was calm. He had a cheap knife in his pack from the kitchen evidence he didn't carry one.

 

[js202]

First of all not even CT said he was sure the alleged intruder was Rudi.

Prove this.

 

[Grinder]

Prove this.

He said he believed it was Rudi.

It is funny to compare the backgrounds of Rudi and Raf.

According to the PG meme Raf chased a girl with scissors, was put on probation for drug use, had violent porn comics, unnatural porn videos, stuck a turnip up a passed out friend's ass, had a picture of himself with a meat clever and bleach, carried a knife (knife fetish) and I'm probably forgetting more.

PI/FOA here totally reject most of the above but accept things like CT and Diaz for Rudi. Say Rudi was a loner that couldn't get girls yet he had been living with a woman in Milan. He went out with the Spanish girls and I never heard a negative from them.

From the pro innocence amandaknoxcase.com

After some time, seeing GUEDE’s photo in the newspapers, TRAMONTANO had the impression that it was really him who had been the burglar.

ETA - Although you should be proving he ID'ed Rudi here is the Massei section on it:

Cristian Tramontano, whose brief deposition the subject of July 1, 2008 was acquired at the hearing of June 6, 2009, testified about an [attempted] robbery in his home, carried out by a young man who, seeing that he had been observed, tried to exit the house and, finding the door locked, pulled out a jackknife with which he threatened Tramontano, who was following him to make him leave the house. Tramontano declared that he believed he recognised that the thief was Rudy when he saw his picture published in the newspapers.

As I said CT testimony if against the kids would be laughed and hand waved away by PI/FOA people here.

 

[RWVBWL]

From The Massei-Cristiani Report:

Cristian Tramontano, whose summary statement of 1-7-2008 was admitted in the hearing of 6-26-2009, described a burglary at his own residence. It was committed by a young man who, having been discovered, was attempting to reach the exit when, finding the door locked, he pulled out a clasp knife to threaten Tramontano, who had been chasing him out of the house. Tramontano stated that he seemed to recognize the perpetrator in Rudy, whose picture he saw in the newspapers.

Link:
https://masseireport.wordpress.com/contents/rudy-hermann-guede/

 

[RWVBWL]

Rudy Says “If I’d Been A Man, Meredith Would Be Alive”

http://www.corriere.it/english/articoli/2007/12_Dicembre/07/rudy.shtml

 

[js202]

According to the PG meme Raf chased a girl with scissors, was put on probation for drug use, had violent porn comics, unnatural porn videos, stuck a turnip up a passed out friend's ass, had a picture of himself with a meat clever and bleach, carried a knife (knife fetish) and I'm probably forgetting more.

That's not an especially convincing analogy. Guede is a known and convicted burglar, Sollecito is accused by a bunch of online nutjobs of having exhibited immature behavior.

And, yes, Tramontano believed it was Guede. Absent snapping a photo for recollection in tranquility, how else would you expect him to characterize his belief it was Guede he caught in his apartment? Of course, Tramontano also believed his own belief sufficient to have Guede kicked out of the bar in which he worked.

 

[zotz]

He said he believed it was Rudi.

It is funny to compare the backgrounds of Rudi and Raf.

According to the PG meme Raf chased a girl with scissors, was put on probation for drug use, had violent porn comics, unnatural porn videos, stuck a turnip up a passed out friend's ass, had a picture of himself with a meat clever and bleach, carried a knife (knife fetish) and I'm probably forgetting more.

PI/FOA here totally reject most of the above but accept things like CT and Diaz for Rudi. Say Rudi was a loner that couldn't get girls yet he had been living with a woman in Milan. He went out with the Spanish girls and I never heard a negative from them.

And Ted Bundy had a girlfriend, worked as a suicide prevention volunteer and was a young republican. Ted was once honored as a hero by the Seattle police, for his effort to catch a purse snatcher. The following year, Ted jumped into a lake to rescue a drowning three year old child. So this stuff really doesn't mean anything. So, unless you are arguing that Rudy really did have a date with Meredith on Nov. 1, we are talking about a real rape-murder and why it happened.

 

[Grinder]

That's not an especially convincing analogy. Guede is a known and convicted burglar, Sollecito is accused by a bunch of online nutjobs of having exhibited immature behavior.

Prove it. ETA - he wasn't charged or convicted of anything before the murder.

And, yes, Tramontano believed it was Guede. Absent snapping a photo for recollection in tranquility, how else would you expect him to characterize his belief it was Guede he caught in his apartment? Of course, Tramontano also believed his own belief sufficient to have Guede kicked out of the bar in which he worked.

Prove it ETA - Curatolo was sure it was the kids. Had CT actually seen Rudi in a bar in October and had him thrown out he should be sure it was him. If not, what does it mean? Nothing. Where is the interview with Pisco? You know Rudi went to both of those bars on Halloween. Think he'd do that if he had robbed an employee there and had been tossed?

BTW - you asked for proof and I provided it and then you say "well you couldn't expect him to be sure" - I think that's a lame argument.

True Crime Novels don't count.

Do you deny Raf had violent Manga Comics, a MySpace picture with meat cleaver and bottle, the he had porn on his computer, carried a knife and had been caught with drugs resulting in some school restrictions?

 

[Grinder]

And Ted Bundy had a girlfriend, worked as a suicide prevention volunteer and was a young republican. Ted was once honored as a hero by the Seattle police, for his effort to catch a purse snatcher. The following year, Ted jumped into a lake to rescue a drowning three year old child. So this stuff really doesn't mean anything. So, unless you are arguing that Rudy really did have a date with Meredith on Nov. 1, we are talking about a real rape-murder and why it happened.

Is Ted Bundy the Godwin of crime discussions?

I'm arguing that Rudi's background isn't what PI/FOA put forward.

Even if he had or thought he had a date with her she was still murdered. I believe the experts said there was no sign of rape. That is why the early speculation was that she had met her killer the night before at the Halloween party.

 

[Grinder]

Any chance Raf's Nov.6th statement will translated soon?

Where are his earlier interviews?

 

[Strozzi]

Welcome back Andreajo. Not sure where we're not in agreement here.
I'm just thinking if Rudy could have gotten hard, he would have stuck it in. But he didn't, or wasn't able to complete if he did. I think its a mistake to equate "level of arousal" with an ability to get hard. Its not like he's pulling out to squirt on the pillow as an attempt at birth control.

Pretty gruesome scene, plus who knows what makes Rudy tick really. Covering the body with the duvet seems to indicate some level of awareness and regret, he's not completely a zombie killer.

I think we agree on the major lines, Rudy only thinks about sexual assault after Meredith is already mortally wounded and unable to further resist.

I don't believe Rudi placed the duvet over Meredith out of remorse for what he had done. I think he covered the head and torso because he did not want to look at the gruesome sight as he moved into position to gratifiy himself at her vaginal area. The upper part of the victim's body was a bloody mess. And that later, while trying to wipe up bloody print traces on the floor with the towel, he pulled the duvet down further, covering more of her body (leaving a foot exposed).

 

[zotz]

Is Ted Bundy the Godwin of crime discussions?

I'm arguing that Rudi's background isn't what PI/FOA put forward.

Even if he had or thought he had a date with her she was still murdered. I believe the experts said there was no sign of rape. That is why the early speculation was that she had met her killer the night before at the Halloween party.

She was naked in a pool of blood, her clothes were stripped from her by force, cuts and bruises all over her body, DNA from the suspect inside her vagina, a semen stain between her legs...but there was no sign of rape according to the "experts". The experts also said that covering the dead victim with a blanket was an indication of a female attacker. Do you believe that?

I agree that the psychological evidence against Rudy is mostly speculation but that is only because the prosecution and the gutter press stopped investigating him, except for Nina. He didn't sell newspapers and he was a problem for the prosecution because he was a distraction from the main target (you know who). This investigation was not truth driven. It was Amanda driven.

Mignini was Captain Ahab and Amanda was the White Whale.

 

[Dougm]

There is much we will not know unless Rudy decides to confess all and even then I would be skeptical of what he would say.

You give different scenarios (and there may be more) but regardless of which one is true I still can't fathom how Rudy could go clean up and then go clubbing.

I don't think he went clubbing to enjoy himself. I think he went clubbing in a desperate attempt to have people see him out elsewhere in public, so he could claim he wasn't there. I think a day or so later the idea sunk in that the cops were sure to find DNA, prints, etc. that would tie him to the cottage, so he took off for Germany.