Continuation Part 16: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[christianahannah]

It's difficult to separate lies from truth or partial truth in Guede's statements. We can only try to match them up with what the evidence shows, and although some speculate, I don't think we have enough information on Guede's true personality to be able to determine what happened exactly.

On the "remorse" question, I have seen three possibilities that match the evidence. This assumes he did not originally enter the cottage planning on killing Meredith, or anyone, but was there for other reasons:

1) He killed Meredith in a frenzied panic and/or rage. Then, after coming to his senses, freaked out, went to get towels, tried to save her, realized that was not going to work, then left. (this scenario would allow for remorse he was not able to save her)
2) He killed Meredith in a frenzied panic and/or rage, but not a panic/rage where he lost sense of what he was doing. He went to get the towels because he thought maybe he could clean up, maybe even get rid of the body. Coming back from the bathroom, he realized there was way too much blood and mess for that to work. (no real remorse here -- his post murder actions were to try to cover his tracks)
3) He killed Meredith, but not in any panic, but because he realized she was going to tell people he broke in, and/or maybe was pissed that she turned down his advances. Like in scenario 2, he gets the towels to try to clean up. (no real remorse here either)

I've always tended to lean toward scenario #1, because it answers, for me, why he would have murdered her. Regardless of a person's opinions on Guede, there is no evidence he ever killed prior to this night. And killing in a way that made such an ugly, bloody scene makes no sense in any rational way. So it follows for me that not only was murder not part of the plan, but something went terribly wrong emotionally to make him kill her in such a violent fashion.

So, on the topic of remorse, if he freaked out, killed her, then came out of his frenzied emotional state, I can see a moment of "oh my god, what did I do" happening. The problem with this is that I can't quite figure out when and why he raped her, digitally or otherwise, and how that factors in. Not meaning to gross anyone out, just trying to understand what could have happened.

So I think it is possible he had some remorse, but not the way he is trying to describe it in his story to Mignini. At that point, he is trying to play both ends against the middle -- "I was there, but I didn't do it, I swear! And even though I didn't do it, I am not trying to say I am blameless, Oh no!! I feel TERRIBLE that I was not able to save her! And I feel TERRIBLE that I did not call the cops and/or ambulance!" I think the only thing he felt terrible about is the predicament he ended up in. So it is hard to call it true remorse.

All the above is speculation. But it seems to fit the evidence that we have.

There is much we will not know unless Rudy decides to confess all and even then I would be skeptical of what he would say.

You give different scenarios (and there may be more) but regardless of which one is true I still can't fathom how Rudy could go clean up and then go clubbing.

 

[Strozzi]

It's difficult to separate lies from truth or partial truth in Guede's statements. We can only try to match them up with what the evidence shows, and although some speculate, I don't think we have enough information on Guede's true personality to be able to determine what happened exactly.

On the "remorse" question, I have seen three possibilities that match the evidence. This assumes he did not originally enter the cottage planning on killing Meredith, or anyone, but was there for other reasons:

1) He killed Meredith in a frenzied panic and/or rage. Then, after coming to his senses, freaked out, went to get towels, tried to save her, realized that was not going to work, then left. (this scenario would allow for remorse he was not able to save her)
2) He killed Meredith in a frenzied panic and/or rage, but not a panic/rage where he lost sense of what he was doing. He went to get the towels because he thought maybe he could clean up, maybe even get rid of the body. Coming back from the bathroom, he realized there was way too much blood and mess for that to work. (no real remorse here -- his post murder actions were to try to cover his tracks)
3) He killed Meredith, but not in any panic, but because he realized she was going to tell people he broke in, and/or maybe was pissed that she turned down his advances. Like in scenario 2, he gets the towels to try to clean up. (no real remorse here either)

I've always tended to lean toward scenario #1, because it answers, for me, why he would have murdered her. Regardless of a person's opinions on Guede, there is no evidence he ever killed prior to this night. And killing in a way that made such an ugly, bloody scene makes no sense in any rational way. So it follows for me that not only was murder not part of the plan, but something went terribly wrong emotionally to make him kill her in such a violent fashion.

So, on the topic of remorse, if he freaked out, killed her, then came out of his frenzied emotional state, I can see a moment of "oh my god, what did I do" happening. The problem with this is that I can't quite figure out when and why he raped her, digitally or otherwise, and how that factors in. Not meaning to gross anyone out, just trying to understand what could have happened.

So I think it is possible he had some remorse, but not the way he is trying to describe it in his story to Mignini. At that point, he is trying to play both ends against the middle -- "I was there, but I didn't do it, I swear! And even though I didn't do it, I am not trying to say I am blameless, Oh no!! I feel TERRIBLE that I was not able to save her! And I feel TERRIBLE that I did not call the cops and/or ambulance!" I think the only thing he felt terrible about is the predicament he ended up in. So it is hard to call it true remorse.

All the above is speculation. But it seems to fit the evidence that we have.

Hearing someone come home, it was crucial for Rudi to try to determine how many people had just entered. Was it one resident, or two residents, or a resident and boyfriend, or several more? By keeping quiet and listening, Rudi would have concluded that there was no conversation - indicating that one lone resident just returned. After discovering the front door locked, Rudi could have escaped through Filomena's broken window. He could have exited through that window, just as he entered through it. Even if seen by the resident, he still could have run to Filomena's window to escape, knowing that he was identified and would later be arrested for burglary. Rudi did not have to attack (there was an exit path). He chose to attack.

 

[zotz]

I'll throw in a little amateur psychology here, not based on any research, just what I know about people:

I think it may be likely that serial killers (of which Guede is not, perhaps because he was caught the first time), may feel remorse, but that just feeds their self-loathing, likely generated from childhood. They then kill again, at least partly because it makes them feel in control and powerful, but then they regret it again, which feeds the whole cycle.

People react differently to sexual frustration. Rudy wanted to believe that he was a kind of lady's man but was repeatedly rejected. He had a girlfriend briefly, IIRC, but that relationship ended. Some men just accept the rejection, others become more aggressive. Rudy may have been looking for money but remember that he knew who lived there. That also could explain why he chose the more difficult entrance. The broken window would not have been noticed by someone coming home on a dark night. I think that this was a botched rape ambush, not a standard burglary. He thought he would gain compliance with threats but Meredith resisted and that enraged him. His motive was part robbery but mainly sexual. He didn't want to kill her but her fighting back left him with no choice. Her gushing blood wasn't part of his fantasy and so he tried to stop it, not out of remorse, but in order to complete his sexual fantasy.

 

[acbytesla]

Hearing someone come home, it was crucial for Rudi to try to determine how many people had just entered. Was it one resident, or two residents, or a resident and boyfriend, or several more? By keeping quiet and listening, Rudi would have concluded that there was no conversation - indicating that one lone resident just returned. After discovering the front door locked, Rudi could have escaped through Filomena's broken window. He could have exited through that window, just as he entered through it. Even if seen by the resident, he still could have run to Filomena's window to escape, knowing that he was identified and would later be arrested for burglary. Rudi did not have to attack (there was an exit path). He chose to attack.

First off, I don't know what was in Rudy's mind. But if I'm guessing, my guess is this was more about the attack and the rape then it was about the burglary. I think Rudy fits the profile of a sexual burglar. I think Ms Prato was lucky she was not alone or she may have been raped and murdered.

We'll never know for sure. Rudy's not talking. So, this is an exercise in futility,

 

[Strozzi]

People react differently to sexual frustration. Rudy wanted to believe that he was a kind of lady's man but was repeatedly rejected. He had a girlfriend briefly, IIRC, but that relationship ended. Some men just accept the rejection, others become more aggressive. Rudy may have been looking for money but remember that he knew who lived there. That also could explain why he chose the more difficult entrance. The broken window would not have been noticed by someone coming home on a dark night. I think that this was a botched rape ambush, not a standard burglary. He thought he would gain compliance with threats but Meredith resisted and that enraged him. His motive was part robbery but mainly sexual. He didn't want to kill her but her fighting back left him with no choice. Her gushing blood wasn't part of his fantasy and so he tried to stop it, not out of remorse, but in order to complete his sexual fantasy.

For that theory to be true - that this was a botched rape ambush rather than a burglary gone bad - Rudi would have to be confident that only one woman would come home while he waited inside. Four women lived in the flat. Suppose Filomena and her boyfriend had come home? Suppose several women returned together? Suppose they brought other friends back to the cottage? Rudi could have no confidence that he would encounter one lone woman on a holiday evening.

If Rudi was looking to attack/rape a resident there, wouldn't it be safer and easier for him to wait in darkness near the front door and observe who is coming home and then rush her or talk his way in the front door? At least that would allow him to retreat if several people came home together.

There is evidence that Rudi was at times pushy towards women. No evidence that he ever assaulted a woman.

If Rudi wanted to meet women, he could do so at the clubs. He appeared to be a skilled dancer.

 

[Numbers]

People react differently to sexual frustration. Rudy wanted to believe that he was a kind of lady's man but was repeatedly rejected. He had a girlfriend briefly, IIRC, but that relationship ended. Some men just accept the rejection, others become more aggressive. Rudy may have been looking for money but remember that he knew who lived there. That also could explain why he chose the more difficult entrance. The broken window would not have been noticed by someone coming home on a dark night. I think that this was a botched rape ambush, not a standard burglary. He thought he would gain compliance with threats but Meredith resisted and that enraged him. His motive was part robbery but mainly sexual. He didn't want to kill her but her fighting back left him with no choice. Her gushing blood wasn't part of his fantasy and so he tried to stop it, not out of remorse, but in order to complete his sexual fantasy.

Many persons who have posted have emphasized that Guede's attack on Meredith was simply the result of a burglary for money that was interrupted by the return of a resident. I believe that the scenario presented in zotz's post (quoted above) is probably more likely. Guede knew that the apartment he was breaking into was the home of four young women. He had no reason to believe that one of them would not return to the apartment while he was there, and he probably could have left through the broken window - perhaps with some risk of not getting a good foothold on the grill - after Meredith's arrival.

 

[acbytesla]

For that theory to be true - that this was a botched rape ambush rather than a burglary gone bad - Rudi would have to be confident that only one woman would come home while he waited inside. Four women lived in the flat. Suppose Filomena and her boyfriend had come home? Suppose several women returned together? Suppose they brought other friends back to the cottage? Rudi could have no confidence that he would encounter one lone woman on a holiday evening.

If Rudi were looking to rape a resident there, wouldn't it be safer and easier for him to wait in darkness near the front door and identify who it was coming home and then rush her or talk his way in the front door? At least that would allow him to retreat if several people came home together.

I don't think Rudy went there with a conscious intent to rape and kill one of the girls that lived there. But I do think he had a subconscious desire to do just that. Most burglars try to keep the amount of time in their victims home to as little as possible. They don't stop to take a dump. This guy grabbed a knife at Ms Prato's nursery. Rudy kept putting him in situations that eventually led to a murder.

 

[Strozzi]

Many persons who have posted have emphasized that Guede's attack on Meredith was simply the result of a burglary for money that was interrupted by the return of a resident. I believe that the scenario presented in zotz's post (quoted above) is probably more likely. Guede knew that the apartment he was breaking into was the home of four young women. He had no reason to believe that one of them would not return to the apartment while he was there, and he probably could have left through the broken window - perhaps with some risk of not getting a good foothold on the grill - after Meredith's arrival.

A few evenings before the burglary, Rudi was with several Spanish girls who lived in his building. He spent more time in direct conversation with them than he had with Meredith or Amanda. And, as Spanish speakers there to study, their Italian conversation abilities were probably much better than either of the two recently-arrived English speakers.

 

[Strozzi]

Many persons who have posted have emphasized that Guede's attack on Meredith was simply the result of a burglary for money that was interrupted by the return of a resident. I believe that the scenario presented in zotz's post (quoted above) is probably more likely. Guede knew that the apartment he was breaking into was the home of four young women. He had no reason to believe that one of them would not return to the apartment while he was there, and he probably could have left through the broken window - perhaps with some risk of not getting a good foothold on the grill - after Meredith's arrival.

He also had no reason to believe that only one woman would return while he was there. He had reason to believe several people might return together.

What you are suggesting is that Rudi went there to assault/rape someone who knew him. That is a very serious action. No evidence that that is why he went there. If that was his motive, hiding outside near the front door to see who is coming home would have been a much better way to do it than to be hiding (trapped) inside the cottage.

 

[zotz]

For that theory to be true - that this was a botched rape ambush rather than a burglary gone bad - Rudi would have to be confident that only one woman would come home while he waited inside. Four women lived in the flat. Suppose Filomena and her boyfriend had come home? Suppose several women returned together? Suppose they brought other friends back to the cottage? Rudi could have no confidence that he would encounter one lone woman on a holiday evening.

If Rudi was looking to attack/rape a resident there, wouldn't it be safer and easier for him to wait in darkness near the front door and observe who is coming home and then rush her or talk his way in the front door? At least that would allow him to retreat if several people came home together.

There is evidence that Rudi was at times pushy towards women. No evidence that he ever assaulted a woman.

If Rudi wanted to meet women, he could do so at the clubs. He appeared to be a skilled dancer.

First, Rudy did have an escape route, Filomena's window. Waiting near the front door would mean attacking the woman outside, which is less safe. About evidence that he never assaulted a woman, you have to remember that sexual assaults frequently go unreported. And a smart criminal can go years without being caught. (google the original night stalker). Yes, he could meet a woman and even date them. Having sexual control over one is completely different.

 

[LondonJohn]

First, Rudy did have an escape route, Filomena's window. Waiting near the front door would mean attacking the woman outside, which is less safe. About evidence that he never assaulted a woman, you have to remember that sexual assaults frequently go unreported. And a smart criminal can go years without being caught. (google the original night stalker). Yes, he could meet a woman and even date them. Having sexual control over one is completely different.

While Guede would have had Romanelli's window as a possible escape route, this would have been an undesirable exit point for someone in a rush to get out. The front door would have been far preferable, since for anyone passing or watching outside the cottage, a man walking (or even running) out of the front door of a premises is a normal and unremarkable thing - whereas a man jumping or climbing out of the upper window of a premises is most certainly a remarkable and unusual thing, and would very possibly have prompted someone raising the alarm and noting Guede's appearance.

So I believe that if Guede had been on the toilet when Kercher arrived home, his instinct was to try to exit via the front door. He had no reason to think it would not be easy to open the same door through which Kercher had entered only moments earlier. He would not have known that the door had a faulty latch which meant that the residents locked the door with the mortice lock as a matter of course. He would have thought that he could just turn the latch, open the door and walk out. I think that this is exactly what he tried to do, and when the door wouldn't open, he perhaps started trying to force it, and that the noise of this alerted Kercher.

Once Kercher had come to investigate and encountered Guede, I think two things kicked in. Firstly, Guede knew that he'd now been recognised and caught in the act, which totally changed everything. And secondly, he was now suddenly presented with an opportunity of a cornered, vulnerable, attractive young woman on her own in house on the outskirts of town. I think that a potent mixture of fear, sexual lust and the urge to impose power/control over Kercher quickly started to grip Guede at this point.

I therefore disagree that Guede might have had some sort of sexual assault in mind when he first cased up and entered the cottage. I think his sole motive was burglary. He may have taken into account the fact that the cottage was occupied by four girls (and that the boys in the downstairs cottage were all away for the long weekend), inasmuch as he reasoned that there was less chance of him being cornered and overpowered if the occupants returned while he was inside.And I also think there may possibly have been an element of "revenge" in his choice of the girls' cottage: he may have been hurt and emasculated by the girls' lack of interest in him when he'd encountered them in bars and/or in the boys' apartment below, and was doing a form of getting his own back.

Either way, I believe that Guede's motivation only turned to a sexual attack when the opportunity presented itself, in the form of Kercher arriving home alone and an unwanted confrontation when Guede couldn't open the front door. As others have pointed out, there was every possibility in Guede's mind that if any of the occupants were going to return while he was inside, two or more of the girls would have returned together, or even with men in tow. And I think that even when Kercher returned alone, Guede's first instinct would have been to get out without being seen or recognised. Only when he failed to do so, and when Kercher confronted him (and may even have indicated to him that she knew who he was) did things change.

 

[LondonJohn]

There is much we will not know unless Rudy decides to confess all and even then I would be skeptical of what he would say.

You give different scenarios (and there may be more) but regardless of which one is true I still can't fathom how Rudy could go clean up and then go clubbing.

I agree, and I think that this is probably the most damning factor - both legally and morally - against Guede. To me, it indicates either that a) he was remorseless and psychopathic, and was deliberately trying to construct some form of alibi ("Look, how could I have killed this girl and been out dancing all night?"), or b) he truly does have some form of deep-seated mental illness - perhaps some form of paranoid schizophrenia.

Either way, Guede's plan was badly damaged once he knew the authorities had found clear evidence of his presence in the cottage around the time of the murder.

 

[Samson]

First, Rudy did have an escape route, Filomena's window. Waiting near the front door would mean attacking the woman outside, which is less safe. About evidence that he never assaulted a woman, you have to remember that sexual assaults frequently go unreported. And a smart criminal can go years without being caught. (google the original night stalker). Yes, he could meet a woman and even date them. Having sexual control over one is completely different.

I really don't think exiting the way he came is realistic. Descending is hazardous, and adrenaline and fright will have taken over. Furthermore, in a deserted quiet house his antennae would predict certain discovery of that attempt. Armchair mountaineers can rationalise, but I know I would have tried to find an alternative way. I am personally sure the loquacious Rudy tried to talk his way out of the situation as he did with Del Prato.
He figured everyone was away or partying. They all knew it was a holiday friday except... Meredith...

 

[Kauffer]

While Guede would have had Romanelli's window as a possible escape route, this would have been an undesirable exit point for someone in a rush to get out. The front door would have been far preferable, since for anyone passing or watching outside the cottage, a man walking (or even running) out of the front door of a premises is a normal and unremarkable thing - whereas a man jumping or climbing out of the upper window of a premises is most certainly a remarkable and unusual thing, and would very possibly have prompted someone raising the alarm and noting Guede's appearance.

So I believe that if Guede had been on the toilet when Kercher arrived home, his instinct was to try to exit via the front door. He had no reason to think it would not be easy to open the same door through which Kercher had entered only moments earlier. He would not have known that the door had a faulty latch which meant that the residents locked the door with the mortice lock as a matter of course. He would have thought that he could just turn the latch, open the door and walk out. I think that this is exactly what he tried to do, and when the door wouldn't open, he perhaps started trying to force it, and that the noise of this alerted Kercher.

Once Kercher had come to investigate and encountered Guede, I think two things kicked in. Firstly, Guede knew that he'd now been recognised and caught in the act, which totally changed everything. And secondly, he was now suddenly presented with an opportunity of a cornered, vulnerable, attractive young woman on her own in house on the outskirts of town. I think that a potent mixture of fear, sexual lust and the urge to impose power/control over Kercher quickly started to grip Guede at this point.

I therefore disagree that Guede might have had some sort of sexual assault in mind when he first cased up and entered the cottage. I think his sole motive was burglary. He may have taken into account the fact that the cottage was occupied by four girls (and that the boys in the downstairs cottage were all away for the long weekend), inasmuch as he reasoned that there was less chance of him being cornered and overpowered if the occupants returned while he was inside.And I also think there may possibly have been an element of "revenge" in his choice of the girls' cottage: he may have been hurt and emasculated by the girls' lack of interest in him when he'd encountered them in bars and/or in the boys' apartment below, and was doing a form of getting his own back.

Either way, I believe that Guede's motivation only turned to a sexual attack when the opportunity presented itself, in the form of Kercher arriving home alone and an unwanted confrontation when Guede couldn't open the front door. As others have pointed out, there was every possibility in Guede's mind that if any of the occupants were going to return while he was inside, two or more of the girls would have returned together, or even with men in tow. And I think that even when Kercher returned alone, Guede's first instinct would have been to get out without being seen or recognised. Only when he failed to do so, and when Kercher confronted him (and may even have indicated to him that she knew who he was) did things change.

Yes - I think your assessment provides the most likely scenario. There is an understandable enthusiasm for concocting complex motive in this case, but the reality is probably this. The method of entry through Romanelli's window likely demonstrates that Guede was determined to make any possible occupant of the cottage aware of his presence. He would do this in order to provide himself with an opportunity to call off the burglary if the cottage had not been empty when he arrived. If rape had been his initial motive, he would have approached the matter rather differently.

 

[carbonjam72]

Rudy got romantic only after assault, imo

I don't think Rudy went there with a conscious intent to rape and kill one of the girls that lived there. But I do think he had a subconscious desire to do just that. Most burglars try to keep the amount of time in their victims home to as little as possible. They don't stop to take a dump. This guy grabbed a knife at Ms Prato's nursery. Rudy kept putting him in situations that eventually led to a murder.

While Guede would have had Romanelli's window as a possible escape route, this would have been an undesirable exit point for someone in a rush to get out. The front door would have been far preferable, since for anyone passing or watching outside the cottage, a man walking (or even running) out of the front door of a premises is a normal and unremarkable thing - whereas a man jumping or climbing out of the upper window of a premises is most certainly a remarkable and unusual thing, and would very possibly have prompted someone raising the alarm and noting Guede's appearance.

So I believe that if Guede had been on the toilet when Kercher arrived home, his instinct was to try to exit via the front door. He had no reason to think it would not be easy to open the same door through which Kercher had entered only moments earlier. He would not have known that the door had a faulty latch which meant that the residents locked the door with the mortice lock as a matter of course. He would have thought that he could just turn the latch, open the door and walk out. I think that this is exactly what he tried to do, and when the door wouldn't open, he perhaps started trying to force it, and that the noise of this alerted Kercher.

Once Kercher had come to investigate and encountered Guede, I think two things kicked in. Firstly, Guede knew that he'd now been recognised and caught in the act, which totally changed everything. And secondly, he was now suddenly presented with an opportunity of a cornered, vulnerable, attractive young woman on her own in house on the outskirts of town. I think that a potent mixture of fear, sexual lust and the urge to impose power/control over Kercher quickly started to grip Guede at this point.

I therefore disagree that Guede might have had some sort of sexual assault in mind when he first cased up and entered the cottage. I think his sole motive was burglary. He may have taken into account the fact that the cottage was occupied by four girls (and that the boys in the downstairs cottage were all away for the long weekend), inasmuch as he reasoned that there was less chance of him being cornered and overpowered if the occupants returned while he was inside.And I also think there may possibly have been an element of "revenge" in his choice of the girls' cottage: he may have been hurt and emasculated by the girls' lack of interest in him when he'd encountered them in bars and/or in the boys' apartment below, and was doing a form of getting his own back.

Either way, I believe that Guede's motivation only turned to a sexual attack when the opportunity presented itself, in the form of Kercher arriving home alone and an unwanted confrontation when Guede couldn't open the front door. As others have pointed out, there was every possibility in Guede's mind that if any of the occupants were going to return while he was inside, two or more of the girls would have returned together, or even with men in tow. And I think that even when Kercher returned alone, Guede's first instinct would have been to get out without being seen or recognised. Only when he failed to do so, and when Kercher confronted him (and may even have indicated to him that she knew who he was) did things change.

Yes - I think your assessment provides the most likely scenario. There is an understandable enthusiasm for concocting complex motive in this case, but the reality is probably this. The method of entry through Romanelli's window likely demonstrates that Guede was determined to make any possible occupant of the cottage aware of his presence. He would do this in order to provide himself with an opportunity to call off the burglary if the cottage had not been empty when he arrived. If rape had been his initial motive, he would have approached the matter rather differently.

I agree with the rough scenario LJ outlined above, and augmented by Tesla and Kauffer. Except I don't believe that the idea of sexual assault occurred to Rudy until after Meredith was mortally wounded and could no longer offer physical resistance.
The extent of the injuries and bruises Meredith sustained shows she fought hard to live. Also, the heavy bruising to her mouth in particular suggests to me Rudy was trying to silence her from yelling, as IIRC he wove the element of her screaming into his narrative.

1. So I have it that Rudy came to burgle, in the bizarro way he does, by making himself at home in the places he robs.

2. When he's in the bathroom and Meredith comes home, he tries to leave out the front door, but the door is locked.

3. He tries to force or jimmy it open, and the noise brings Meredith's attention. (Meredith may even have stopped in the kitchen and eaten a mushroom from the fridge, while Rudy was on the toilet.)

4. BUt Meredith was found in her bedroom, with her jacket on (?) and hadn't had time to take her outside clothes off. This suggests she looked and saw Rudy, realized she was trapped, and started yelling for help in her bedroom and maybe trying to lock the bedroom door. At that point Rudy can't talk his way out of it anymore because Meredith is screaming (unlike Milan where he told the lady not to panic), so he HAS TO QUIET HER, hence the violent assault, and escalating to Rudy putting the knife to her throat. (Remember the CCTV footage from OGGI, showing multiple people in the parking garage at about that time, all looking in the direction of the cottage? Meredith continuing to scream throughout the assault, right up until Rudy stabbed her, would be consistent).
5. If she is continuing to scream with the knife at her throat, Rudy's only choice to silence her is to actually USE the knife, as he has in the past (IIRC Rudy had scars from knife fights on his stomach?). At any rate, its clear Rudy killed Meredith with his knife in this incident.

6. Only then as Meredith is dying, does Rudy make a decision to take advantage of the opportunity to commit a sexual assault. He repositions her body, partially undresses her, and digitally possibly orally rapes her.
7. But he can't get hard. So he masturbates over her to complete his satisfaction.

8. He then tries to clean up the mess, goes to the bathroom to rinse off blood from his pants and shoes. Grabs the now bloody towels, to hide them and conceal the discovery of the act as long as possible.

9. Comes back into the bedroom and puts the duvet over Meredith, sits on the bed to collect his thoughts. Gets back to the business of stealing money, credit cards and cell phones.

10. Realizes he can leave. Takes Meredith's keys, and see Silenzie's keys on the ring (don't know how he would know this, unless he's seen Silenzie use the keys before, or they're marked in some way). And Rudy heads downstairs, maybe to rob, maybe to look for a change of clothes. But the DNA and blood from downstairs, and the condition of the apartment being different from how it was left, make it a pretty good bet that Rudy went there after he left the upstairs apartment.

11. Check the timeline for this scenario. Rudy is tossing the phones in Lana's garden by what, 10:15pm?

 

[js202]

Hearing someone come home, it was crucial for Rudi to try to determine how many people had just entered. Was it one resident, or two residents, or a resident and boyfriend, or several more? By keeping quiet and listening, Rudi would have concluded that there was no conversation - indicating that one lone resident just returned. After discovering the front door locked, Rudi could have escaped through Filomena's broken window. He could have exited through that window, just as he entered through it. Even if seen by the resident, he still could have run to Filomena's window to escape, knowing that he was identified and would later be arrested for burglary. Rudi did not have to attack (there was an exit path). He chose to attack.

Except for the fact that, because he could not see the activity outside the bathroom, he could only guess - by assessing sounds - at a correct moment to exit unobserved. If he could sneak out without Meredith seeing him and go straight for Filomena's window, that would be one thing, and perhaps it was his aim. But what if he aimed to do this, timed his exit of the bathroom poorly, and walked right out into Meredith's path as she has moving between her room and the laundry? She screams, Rudy goes into fight or flight, and all bets are off.

Otherwise, I like your analysis very much. Well done.

 

[Strozzi]

I really don't think exiting the way he came is realistic. Descending is hazardous, and adrenaline and fright will have taken over. Furthermore, in a deserted quiet house his antennae would predict certain discovery of that attempt. Armchair mountaineers can rationalise, but I know I would have tried to find an alternative way. I am personally sure the loquacious Rudy tried to talk his way out of the situation as he did with Del Prato.
He figured everyone was away or partying. They all knew it was a holiday friday except... Meredith...

There is no evidence that Rudi knew or assumed that. Why would he assume that all of the four women were away or partying?

He entered the flat between 8:30 and a few minutes to 9. A good burglar should have been in and out in a few minutes. Rudi was not a good burglar.

Grinder might point out that there is no actual evidence that Rudi ever committed a single burglary before he entered the women's flat.

 

[andreajo]

I agree with the rough scenario LJ outlined above, and augmented by Tesla and Kauffer. Except I don't believe that the idea of sexual assault occurred to Rudy until after Meredith was mortally wounded and could no longer offer physical resistance.

The extent of the injuries and bruises Meredith sustained shows she fought hard to live. Also, the heavy bruising to her mouth in particular suggests to me Rudy was trying to silence her from yelling, as IIRC he wove the element of her screaming into his narrative.

1. So I have it that Rudy came to burgle, in the bizarro way he does, by making himself at home in the places he robs.

2. When he's in the bathroom and Meredith comes home, he tries to leave out the front door, but the door is locked.

3. He tries to force or jimmy it open, and the noise brings Meredith's attention. (Meredith may even have stopped in the kitchen and eaten a mushroom from the fridge, while Rudy was on the toilet.)

4. BUt Meredith was found in her bedroom, with her jacket on (?) and hadn't had time to take her outside clothes off. This suggests she looked and saw Rudy, realized she was trapped, and started yelling for help in her bedroom and maybe trying to lock the bedroom door. At that point Rudy can't talk his way out of it anymore because Meredith is screaming (unlike Milan where he told the lady not to panic), so he HAS TO QUIET HER, hence the violent assault, and escalating to Rudy putting the knife to her throat. (Remember the CCTV footage from OGGI, showing multiple people in the parking garage at about that time, all looking in the direction of the cottage? Meredith continuing to scream throughout the assault, right up until Rudy stabbed her, would be consistent).

5. If she is continuing to scream with the knife at her throat, Rudy's only choice to silence her is to actually USE the knife, as he has in the past (IIRC Rudy had scars from knife fights on his stomach?). At any rate, its clear Rudy killed Meredith with his knife in this incident.

6. Only then as Meredith is dying, does Rudy make a decision to take advantage of the opportunity to commit a sexual assault. He repositions her body, partially undresses her, and digitally possibly orally rapes her.

7. But he can't get hard. So he masturbates over her to complete his satisfaction.
8. He then tries to clean up the mess, goes to the bathroom to rinse off blood from his pants and shoes. Grabs the now bloody towels, to hide them and conceal the discovery of the act as long as possible.

9. Comes back into the bedroom and puts the duvet over Meredith, sits on the bed to collect his thoughts. Gets back to the business of stealing money, credit cards and cell phones.

10. Realizes he can leave. Takes Meredith's keys, and see Silenzie's keys on the ring (don't know how he would know this, unless he's seen Silenzie use the keys before, or they're marked in some way). And Rudy heads downstairs, maybe to rob, maybe to look for a change of clothes. But the DNA and blood from downstairs, and the condition of the apartment being different from how it was left, make it a pretty good bet that Rudy went there after he left the upstairs apartment.

11. Check the timeline for this scenario. Rudy is tossing the phones in Lana's garden by what, 10:15pm?

Sorry carbonjam! I am budging in after a long time without posting, but I assure you I have been reading faithfully. I even went back and read the first two threads in their entirety and highlights of those following while waiting for the verdict.

I agree generally with the scenario you lay out. I have long thought that Rudy became aroused when he was in close physical contact with Meredith in an extremely fraught situation. I see him as a creature of impulse rather than a decision-maker. I think he became aroused during the physical assault and then acted on his arousal by undressing and touching her when she was incapacitated. I'd guess he was over rather than under excited, bringing the sexual assault to a hasty conclusion.

 

[Strozzi]

Except for the fact that, because he could not see the activity outside the bathroom, he could only guess - by assessing sounds - at a correct moment to exit unobserved. If he could sneak out without Meredith seeing him and go straight for Filomena's window, that would be one thing, and perhaps it was his aim. But what if he aimed to do this, timed his exit of the bathroom poorly, and walked right out into Meredith's path as she has moving between her room and the laundry? She screams, Rudy goes into fight or flight, and all bets are off.

Otherwise, I like your analysis very much. Well done.

I have wondered why Rudi did not remain in the bathroom for a long time. A wiser burglar might have remained there in silence for a long time, hoping not to be noticed. A wiser burglar might have waited there an hour after Meredith had gone to sleep before trying to sneak to the front door.

Perhaps the bathroom door was open or ajar. The laundry area is located right outside the bathroom door where Rudi was. Perhaps Meredith approached and saw him. Or smelled the presence of the bad kabob, indicating that someone was in there. Perhaps she was elsewhere, heard a noise, called out expecting it to be one if her housemates, and got no female response.

Or perhaps Meredith did not know anyone else was in the flat. She still had her jacket on when attacked. Had not yet tried to call her mother again. Had not moved laundry. That is when she was attacked - apparently within a few minutes of returning home.

That timing suggests she either compromised Rudi or that he tried the front door, couldn't get out, and decided to attack her. He did not hide in the bathroom for an hour - not even many minutes. He was compromised early, or tried to leave early and finding the door locked, he attacked.

 

[carbonjam72]

Sorry carbonjam! I am budging in after a long time without posting, but I assure you I have been reading faithfully. I even went back and read the first two threads in their entirety and highlights of those following while waiting for the verdict.

I agree generally with the scenario you lay out. I have long thought that Rudy became aroused when he was in close physical contact with Meredith in an extremely fraught situation. I see him as a creature of impulse rather than a decision-maker. I think he became aroused during the physical assault and then acted on his arousal by undressing and touching her when she was incapacitated. I'd guess he was over rather than under excited, bringing the sexual assault to a hasty conclusion.

Welcome back Andreajo. Not sure where we're not in agreement here.
I'm just thinking if Rudy could have gotten hard, he would have stuck it in. But he didn't, or wasn't able to complete if he did. I think its a mistake to equate "level of arousal" with an ability to get hard. Its not like he's pulling out to squirt on the pillow as an attempt at birth control.

Pretty gruesome scene, plus who knows what makes Rudy tick really. Covering the body with the duvet seems to indicate some level of awareness and regret, he's not completely a zombie killer.

I think we agree on the major lines, Rudy only thinks about sexual assault after Meredith is already mortally wounded and unable to further resist.