China Draws Sabre

[The Atheist]

I may have mentioned once or several times in the past the disturbing presence of Chinese Imperialism, and noted China's sabre-rattling over disputed islands in the South China Sea.

Things had started to get interesting a few months back when it became apparent that far from disputing the islands - variously claimed by Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia & Indonesia - they have just gone and annexed them.

They have built structures that look awfully military.

At the same time, USA has been testing the resolve of the Chinese by flying military reconnaissance missions over the islands and not leaving when China asks them to go away.

Given the Global Times being a mouthpiece for the regime, the Chinese seem to have given their response to the latest infringement by US planes.

If the United States' bottom line is that China has to halt its activities, then a US-China war is inevitable in the South China Sea.

link

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Edited by jsfisher: 

Off-topic / call-out text removed for compliance with the Membership Agreement.

 

[rjh01]

When China thinks it can sink a US aircraft carrier then war is likely. However my feeling is that China will allow US aircraft over the islands, but the US will take no further actions. They will talk to each other and avoid any escalation.

World: get used to it. China is becoming a great power in Asia.

 

[Garrette]

When China thinks it can sink a US aircraft carrier then war is likely. However my feeling is that China will allow US aircraft over the islands, but the US will take no further actions. They will talk to each other and avoid any escalation.

World: get used to it. China is becoming a great power in Asia.

This, plus their ability to exercise Area Denial is increasing.

 

[The Atheist]

World: get used to it. China is becoming a great power in Asia.

I think "has become" would be a lot more accurate. They've given Oz a tiny taste of what it's like to have the purse strings tightened, and now they're just putting a line in the sand.

I'm betting USA does not cross it.

 

[theprestige]

This, plus their ability to exercise Area Denial is increasing.

Area Discouragement, more like it. There's probably not an area anywhere between here and the moon that could be truly denied to the US military, if they had a good enough reason to be there.

 

[MG1962]

I may have mentioned once or several times in the past the disturbing presence of Chinese Imperialism, and noted China's sabre-rattling over disputed islands in the South China Sea..

Would you change any of your rhetoric if you discovered China had a legitimate claim to the islands?

 

[Garrette]

Area Discouragement, more like it. There's probably not an area anywhere between here and the moon that could be truly denied to the US military, if they had a good enough reason to be there.

Fair enough as a description of the current situation, but I said "is increasing." I do not expect the USN to have that freedom for too many more years, absent a violent conflict that goes in its favor.

 

[The Atheist]

Would you change any of your rhetoric if you discovered China had a legitimate claim to the islands?

No, because I know what their claim is.

 

[MG1962]

No, because I know what their claim is.

So what is it about the original claim that you find does not on some level validate China's claim

 

[The Atheist]

I'm sure it validates in China's eyes, but there are multiple other claimants with equally- or more-valid claims.

Which "original" claim do you refer to? China has been on and off the area for centuries.

I'd rather see international maritime law adhered to, and some of the claimed area is within the 200-mile exclusion zone of other nations.

 

[Puppycow]

Are these islands really worth fighting over?

Particularly for the USA, which does not claim them anyway.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Isn't this the same sabre they drew in the Japanese dispute last year? I think they warned Japan, Korea and the US that they'd intercept flights over their proclaimed "no-fly" zone. Didn't do a thing then. The US and Korean air forces challenged them every day. And now, in the "strange bedfellows" category, the Vietnamese, Philippine, US and Malaysian navies (with various senses of the word "navy") are going to challenge them over their South China Sea claims.

The Chinese are perhaps more fond than even the Americans and Brits of "precedent". They, naturally believe their claims because they're self-serving but not being willing to stand on those claims, they try to set current precedent. If any of the other countries had started filing flight plans with China and requesting clearance, then China would've used "current consensus" as a further building-block in their arguments about who has control of the disputed turf with Japan. Similarly, if one of the local disputants of the Spratleys was to start asking Chinese "permission" in any form, they're going to try to bank that in the court of public opinion, too.

Frankly, I look to the US to "not blink". Not because they're going to back down but because the ASEAN countries are far too beholding to China and they've told the West to butt out of ASEAN affairs so often that I can't see them cozying up for protection against big bad China. They are far more likely to negotiate an "arrangement" with Chinese capital and American equipment and technology and China getting the first right of purchase of the resources from the consortium of country-owned industries, at a rock-solid long-term price.

I see the area breaking out in war only if the ASEAN countries and China go at it. The US is content to sail around in the area looking bigger and meaner than anyone else and having their oil companies buy leases from whomever is in charge that week. Heck, a couple of times, they've just bought leases from two parties disputing an area... covering their bases regardless of who gains the upper hand.

But in terms of a naval battle? I doubt China's risking their one carrier against the 7th Fleet, since the "Liaoning" has been undergoing "sea trials" for the past four years. One might think that they are having some trouble. The rest of their carriers are scheduled for completion in 2025. This is just what you tagged it, "sabre rattling".

 

[Delvo]

They have built structures that look awfully military.

I can't see the whole article. What is it? A whole base? Just some missile platforms?

At the same time, USA has been testing the resolve of the Chinese by flying military reconnaissance missions over the islands and not leaving when China asks them to go away.

Given the Global Times being a mouthpiece for the regime, the Chinese seem to have given their response to the latest infringement by US planes.

If the United States' bottom line is that China has to halt its activities, then a US-China war is inevitable in the South China Sea.

Not really a war, just some bomb/missile strikes; exactly the kind of military action our politicians prefer. But this time it would be over worthless unoccupied land, so there's not much incentive to even bother with that much.

 

[a_unique_person]

I can't see the whole article. What is it? A whole base? Just some missile platforms?

At the same time, USA has been testing the resolve of the Chinese by flying military reconnaissance missions over the islands and not leaving when China asks them to go away.

Not really a war, just some bomb/missile strikes; exactly the kind of military action our politicians prefer. But this time it would be over worthless unoccupied land, so there's not much incentive to even bother with that much.

Hardly worthless. With land comes sea and air rights as well as possible oil. China is already demanding that planes identify themself and ask permission to fly in international airspace.

It doesn't tend to make the news but China regularly sinks and harasses fishing boats with water cannon.

 

[Foolmewunz]

I can't see the whole article. What is it? A whole base? Just some missile platforms?

At the same time, USA has been testing the resolve of the Chinese by flying military reconnaissance missions over the islands and not leaving when China asks them to go away.

Not really a war, just some bomb/missile strikes; exactly the kind of military action our politicians prefer. But this time it would be over worthless unoccupied land, so there's not much incentive to even bother with that much.

Naaaah! Not really. The Chinese are not about to challenge the USN. They might pull the old Russian trick of having a sub surface in the middle of USN maneuvers for "in your face" value, but the Chinese navy is not going to put itself in the position of having to back off, which they would have to do.

It helps to remember that 80% of Chinese bluster in politics is for home consumption. Ask the average Chinese who's developing the oil leases. The last thing they're going to say is "Conoco", believe me! Beijing is pushing the Xenophobia and patriotism angle. It's the usual motive... ya just don't want a population of 1.4 billion (or even 1 in 10 of them) unhappy with you. Patriotism goes a long way to a people who truly believe that they are the center of the world. It''s just 21st century bread-and-circuses.

China's an invited participant in the ASEAN Plus Three meetings, has massive financial and political ties in the area and is leading the way to the establishment of a regional Pacific financing bank. They have too much at stake to be shooting at Philippine trawlers if the US has a carrier group heading through the area (which they constantly do). Ain't gonna be no shooting. Maybe a ramming. Maybe some fishing nets get caught on PT boat propellers. Mostly a lot of posturing.

 

[Foolmewunz]

Hardly worthless. With land comes sea and air rights as well as possible oil. China is already demanding that planes identify themself and ask permission to fly in international airspace.

It doesn't tend to make the news but China regularly sinks and harasses fishing boats with water cannon.

As mentioned, they tried that "demanding" with the Japan standoff and it got them no where. They just plain went silent when South Korea, Japan and the US kept flying right past their "zone", ignoring their demand. They'll try it again, but the chances of anyone paying any attention to them are slim and none.

But geographically, you're right. This space is far more significant. It extends China's hegemony (if they get what they want) well into the southern and eastern ASEAN countries, affords them essentially a blue-water naval base, an ideal position to monitor commercial and military vessel movements, PLUS has whatever oil and gas (although there's some contention as to just how much over-estimation was done on the initial exploration),... but the fishing rights are HUGE.

 

[The Atheist]

Naaaah! Not really. The Chinese are not about to challenge the USN. They might pull the old Russian trick of having a sub surface in the middle of USN maneuvers for "in your face" value, but the Chinese navy is not going to put itself in the position of having to back off, which they would have to do.

Which might well be the point of the fortifications. If they can sit and fire a SAM at US planes, what are the Yanks going to do in return?

It helps to remember that 80% of Chinese bluster in politics is for home consumption. Ask the average Chinese who's developing the oil leases. The last thing they're going to say is "Conoco", believe me! Beijing is pushing the Xenophobia and patriotism angle. It's the usual motive... ya just don't want a population of 1.4 billion (or even 1 in 10 of them) unhappy with you. Patriotism goes a long way to a people who truly believe that they are the center of the world. It''s just 21st century bread-and-circuses.

China's an invited participant in the ASEAN Plus Three meetings, has massive financial and political ties in the area and is leading the way to the establishment of a regional Pacific financing bank. They have too much at stake to be shooting at Philippine trawlers if the US has a carrier group heading through the area (which they constantly do). Ain't gonna be no shooting. Maybe a ramming. Maybe some fishing nets get caught on PT boat propellers. Mostly a lot of posturing.

You might well be right, but the rhetoric from Beijing is definitely being stepped up, and they have already built the structures, so it's a change from the previous situation.

Looks very much like they've taken a string from Putin's bow and just taken the question out of international justice and straight into Beijing's hands.

 

[a_unique_person]

As mentioned, they tried that "demanding" with the Japan standoff and it got them no where. They just plain went silent when South Korea, Japan and the US kept flying right past their "zone", ignoring their demand. They'll try it again, but the chances of anyone paying any attention to them are slim and none.

Sinking small boats is common and effective. It works at intimidating their nearest neighbours who don't have anything to equal the Chinese military.

 

[Garrette]

Isn't this the same sabre they drew in the Japanese dispute last year? I think they warned Japan, Korea and the US that they'd intercept flights over their proclaimed "no-fly" zone. Didn't do a thing then. The US and Korean air forces challenged them every day. And now, in the "strange bedfellows" category, the Vietnamese, Philippine, US and Malaysian navies (with various senses of the word "navy") are going to challenge them over their South China Sea claims.

The Chinese are perhaps more fond than even the Americans and Brits of "precedent". They, naturally believe their claims because they're self-serving but not being willing to stand on those claims, they try to set current precedent. If any of the other countries had started filing flight plans with China and requesting clearance, then China would've used "current consensus" as a further building-block in their arguments about who has control of the disputed turf with Japan. Similarly, if one of the local disputants of the Spratleys was to start asking Chinese "permission" in any form, they're going to try to bank that in the court of public opinion, too.

Frankly, I look to the US to "not blink". Not because they're going to back down but because the ASEAN countries are far too beholding to China and they've told the West to butt out of ASEAN affairs so often that I can't see them cozying up for protection against big bad China. They are far more likely to negotiate an "arrangement" with Chinese capital and American equipment and technology and China getting the first right of purchase of the resources from the consortium of country-owned industries, at a rock-solid long-term price.

I see the area breaking out in war only if the ASEAN countries and China go at it. The US is content to sail around in the area looking bigger and meaner than anyone else and having their oil companies buy leases from whomever is in charge that week. Heck, a couple of times, they've just bought leases from two parties disputing an area... covering their bases regardless of who gains the upper hand.

But in terms of a naval battle? I doubt China's risking their one carrier against the 7th Fleet, since the "Liaoning" has been undergoing "sea trials" for the past four years. One might think that they are having some trouble. The rest of their carriers are scheduled for completion in 2025. This is just what you tagged it, "sabre rattling".

Naaaah! Not really. The Chinese are not about to challenge the USN. They might pull the old Russian trick of having a sub surface in the middle of USN maneuvers for "in your face" value, but the Chinese navy is not going to put itself in the position of having to back off, which they would have to do.

It helps to remember that 80% of Chinese bluster in politics is for home consumption. Ask the average Chinese who's developing the oil leases. The last thing they're going to say is "Conoco", believe me! Beijing is pushing the Xenophobia and patriotism angle. It's the usual motive... ya just don't want a population of 1.4 billion (or even 1 in 10 of them) unhappy with you. Patriotism goes a long way to a people who truly believe that they are the center of the world. It''s just 21st century bread-and-circuses.

China's an invited participant in the ASEAN Plus Three meetings, has massive financial and political ties in the area and is leading the way to the establishment of a regional Pacific financing bank. They have too much at stake to be shooting at Philippine trawlers if the US has a carrier group heading through the area (which they constantly do). Ain't gonna be no shooting. Maybe a ramming. Maybe some fishing nets get caught on PT boat propellers. Mostly a lot of posturing.

I could not possibly say any of this better than you have, or provide a better summary analysis, yet I feel you underestimate China's increasing capabilities in regard to their navy, which in this sense includes land-based systems suitable for area denial. Not that the US can't run the board in Asia-Pacific waters right now, but that dominance is far less than assured in even the medium-term.

Here's a good overview.

 

[Foolmewunz]

I could not possibly say any of this better than you have, or provide a better summary analysis, yet I feel you underestimate China's increasing capabilities in regard to their navy, which in this sense includes land-based systems suitable for area denial. Not that the US can't run the board in Asia-Pacific waters right now, but that dominance is far less than assured in even the medium-term.

Here's a good overview.

In the long-term, you may be right, but in the near and medium term, China's in no position to challenge the USN and really has no desire to do so. If the 6th (in the Indian and Persian Gulf) send a carrier group through to HK for R&R which they regularly do, I'm going to bet an Aegis will go straight through the Chinese "zone". The US won't mention it. China won't mention it. This is all posturing and they're having friendly chats about oil concessions while the foreign ministry types distract the masses by tweaking Uncle Sam's nose because they haven't figure out what to do about Indonesia blowing up one of their fishing vessels last week. Bread-and-circuses.