Continuation Part 15: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[Desert Fox]

So do you believe he was a computer collector?
Btw, the lawyer's computer or was it the phone was new. Generally lawyers have relatively new computers because they are caught in the latest version of Word trap.

He was clearly fencing the stuff the only question is whether he did for others or himself.

No, I believe he stole the computers and he then simply could not get rid of them. He likely had some contacts that told him that they were junk but he still hoped that he could get a few bucks somewhere.

Think of it this way, for every fence there has to be many burglars and/or thieves. Even just the odds make if far more likely that he is a thief.

 

[RoseMontague]

Hellmann's exoneration was annulled, cancelled, blocked, spiked, shredded, ripped up, thrown in the garbage, flushed down the john, is no more, is non-extant, extinct, dead.


Clear now?

Nope. I expect we'll see it featured prominently in the final ISC report.

 

[Grinder]

No, I believe he stole the computers and he then simply could not get rid of them. He likely had some contacts that told him that they were junk but he still hoped that he could get a few bucks somewhere.

Think of it this way, for every fence there has to be many burglars and/or thieves. Even just the odds make if far more likely that he is a thief.

This is more of the Rudi is an idiot meme. First of all most of his computers would come from ones that were being used no matter who stole them so they mostly wouldn't be that out of date.

I doubt it is different in Italy as to the fact that possession is a not the same as burglary. Maybe Numbers will give us the sentences for them.

I know that having Rudi is an important meme to PIP but the evidence of his stash of computers and his business trip to Milan make it much more likely that he sold the equipment and for others as well.

And no, there need not be many burglars for a fence. It just depends on how prolific the burglary team is.

Why would you make the assumption he had contacts that told them they were junk? Who do you think you are, Follain?

 

[Grinder]

Maybe Rudi was upgrading!

Just like dealers keep some of the best!

 

[carbonjam72]

Carbonjam72,

You raise some good points. and perhaps I should have said "possibly" rather than "probably." However, the stain that you mentioned was found very close to Meredith's legs, and her body was found partially undressed. If the stain were more distant or if Meredith were fully dressed, that would raise the odds that the stain and the crime were unrelated. Also, Giacomo is the only man who clearly had an innocent explanation for leaving a semen stain in her bedroom. Also, it may be worth mentioning that there are two separate stains, either or both of which may be semen.

Agree on everything. Establishing a likelihood of presence is pretty good. How it got there is more or less plausible based on circumstances of the crime scene. But I think its the exercise of separating the fact of DNA identification, from it probative meaning that Dr Gill was pointing out.

 

[Kauffer]

No, I believe he stole the computers and he then simply could not get rid of them. He likely had some contacts that told him that they were junk but he still hoped that he could get a few bucks somewhere.

Think of it this way, for every fence there has to be many burglars and/or thieves. Even just the odds make if far more likely that he is a thief.

....which would beg the question: Why all the fuss about his not stealing a laptop on Nov 1st? I wonder what the value of a second hand stolen laptop was in Italy in 2007.

 

[Desert Fox]

....which would beg the question: Why all the fuss about his not stealing a laptop on Nov 1st? I wonder what the value of a second hand stolen laptop was in Italy in 2007.

He almost certainly panicked having never murdered anybody before and just took the money. Taking a laptop from a household that somebody just got murdered is also a pretty telling thing.

 

[Desert Fox]

This is more of the Rudi is an idiot meme. First of all most of his computers would come from ones that were being used no matter who stole them so they mostly wouldn't be that out of date.

I doubt it is different in Italy as to the fact that possession is a not the same as burglary. Maybe Numbers will give us the sentences for them.

I know that having Rudi is an important meme to PIP but the evidence of his stash of computers and his business trip to Milan make it much more likely that he sold the equipment and for others as well.

And no, there need not be many burglars for a fence. It just depends on how prolific the burglary team is.

Why would you make the assumption he had contacts that told them they were junk? Who do you think you are, Follain?

Until it died around the September / October time frame, my Dell dual core was my main laptop. It was pretty out of date by that time. If I had tried to sell it just before that time, it would have likely been worth $80 to $100 on eBay. Bet you that you might get at very best $20 to $30 at a pawn shop.
Good odds they would actually tell you to just go away. Pawn shops are actually a good model for how the illegal market runs.

I am not so much calling him an idiot. . . .My roommate is actually better with computers than I am however he still has a bunch of singe core computers which I keep trying to get him to get rid of.

 

[davefoc]

...

Comparing your work experience to the underworld is not worthwhile.

...

I found his analysis completely reasonable and applicable to speculation about Guede.

At the extremes of the meaning of the word fence it is not inconceivable that Guede bought something and sold it again and thus was for a moment a fence.

However, to be a trader in goods, illegal or legal is a different kind of thing. Considerable knowledge about the details of the items that you are trading in and knowledge of how to contact buyers and sellers are required. And if the items are illegal, additional knowledge of how to avoid detection by the authorities is required. There is nothing that has been presented here that suggests that it is likely that Guede would have had those skills. I see it as quite unlikely that Guede would have had those skills. If you do have those skills you aren't wasting your time on petty theft, you are taking advantage of your skills and letting others do the small time burglaries.

We aren't talking about absolute knowledge here, but if Guede had a lot of consumer electronics lying about, it wasn't because he was an IT specialist, or a trader is consumer electronics, or any other very unlikely theory, it was because they were things that he had stolen.

 

[davefoc]

....which would beg the question: Why all the fuss about his not stealing a laptop on Nov 1st? I wonder what the value of a second hand stolen laptop was in Italy in 2007.

He almost certainly panicked having never murdered anybody before and just took the money. Taking a laptop from a household that somebody just got murdered is also a pretty telling thing.

If there was such a fuss, it seems to be silliness in the extreme. It is, however, human. Confirmation bias is a powerful, largely unnoticeable driver of the thought process of all of us. One of things we humans do, after we have formed an opinion is to begin to interpret each new fact remotely relevant to our opinion as supporting our opinion. And our brain rewards us with a little squire of happiness when we do it.

FWIW, Grinder seems to have an unusually high willingness to fight against confirmation bias to me. Although, I am not sure at times that his willingness to fight against his confirmation bias doesn't lead to over compensation. But then again maybe my brain is just rewarding me for rationalizing the fact that I occasionally disagree with somebody far better informed about the issue than I am.

 

[Grinder]

He almost certainly panicked having never murdered anybody before and just took the money. Taking a laptop from a household that somebody just got murdered is also a pretty telling thing.

Yes that would be stupid but of course Rudi is very stupid.

Until it died around the September / October time frame, my Dell dual core was my main laptop. It was pretty out of date by that time. If I had tried to sell it just before that time, it would have likely been worth $80 to $100 on eBay. Bet you that you might get at very best $20 to $30 at a pawn shop.
Good odds they would actually tell you to just go away. Pawn shops are actually a good model for how the illegal market runs.

I am not so much calling him an idiot. . . .My roommate is actually better with computers than I am however he still has a bunch of singe core computers which I keep trying to get him to get rid of.

No one is claiming that stolen computers are worth a king's ransom. Car stereos weren't either but they definitely were stolen often over a million a year.

Were people stealing laptops in 2007? Was there a market for them in Perugia with the student population?

Was Rudi a salesman of illegal things?

Without getting into the petitio principii argument about the cottage being evidence of his burglary style what proof do we have of his MO? We only know he pushed open a door or was let into the nursery and he possessed merch from a burglary that was a second story job. That's it.

 

[Desert Fox]

No one is claiming that stolen computers are worth a king's ransom. Car stereos weren't either but they definitely were stolen often over a million a year.

Which are more common, people who steal car stereos and try to sell them or or people who fence them (as a regular situation?)

 

[carbonjam72]

Oh well done for spotting this. Can't but help to flush out some very strange people. I wonder if the organisers might appreciate that the Q and A could get a little tense. Are we having a skeptics' social?

These are the abstracts of the two papers:

http://www.city.ac.uk/__data/assets/word_doc/0006/267873/Foxy-Knoxy.docx

http://www.city.ac.uk/__data/assets...osecution-in-action-the-Amanda-Knox-case.docx

Any one going to this?

 

[Grinder]

I found his analysis completely reasonable and applicable to speculation about Guede.

Please expand on how a computer dealers experience in the legit world has anything to do with selling laptops "under" the table. People sell stuff on Craigslist all the time without being schooled in the field of the stuff they are selling.

Stolen merch is sold below market and for cash. The fence knows from the street what a computer will go for or at least a range. It's not like they are selling to a corporation and talking with the IT dept.

At the extremes of the meaning of the word fence it is not inconceivable that Guede bought something and sold it again and thus was for a moment a fence.

Perhaps your image of a fence is a warehouse full of goods that get put in containers and shipped to SA.

I'm talking about a guy just like Rudi that sells joints and grams on the steps of the school and other stuff out of his apartment. It's not an extreme.

However, to be a trader in goods, illegal or legal is a different kind of thing. Considerable knowledge about the details of the items that you are trading in and knowledge of how to contact buyers and sellers are required. And if the items are illegal, additional knowledge of how to avoid detection by the authorities is required. There is nothing that has been presented here that suggests that it is likely that Guede would have had those skills. I see it as quite unlikely that Guede would have had those skills. If you do have those skills you aren't wasting your time on petty theft, you are taking advantage of your skills and letting others do the small time burglaries.

Just not true. Rudi seemed quite capable of not leaving a lot of tracks. He used a variety of phones from recent posts here. I'm saying that he used his sales skills and didn't waste his time doing the burglaries.

We aren't talking about absolute knowledge here, but if Guede had a lot of consumer electronics lying about, it wasn't because he was an IT specialist, or a trader is consumer electronics, or any other very unlikely theory, it was because they were things that he had were stolen.

Fixed it for you. The only theft we know he committed was the knife from the nursery that he said he put in his pack for protection in case someone else came into the known crash place.

If there was such a fuss, it seems to be silliness in the extreme. It is, however, human. Confirmation bias is a powerful, largely unnoticeable driver of the thought process of all of us. One of things we humans do, after we have formed an opinion is to begin to interpret each new fact remotely relevant to our opinion as supporting our opinion. And our brain rewards us with a little squire of happiness when we do it.

FWIW, Grinder seems to have an unusually high willingness to fight against confirmation bias to me. Although, I am not sure at times that his willingness to fight against his confirmation bias doesn't lead to over compensation. But then again maybe my brain is just rewarding me for rationalizing the fact that I occasionally disagree with somebody far better informed about the issue than I am.

Thanks

If one looks at the actual evidence I don't believe that it is at all clear that he was a burglar or at least not on a burglary crime wave.

List the places he burgled and the proof he burgled them. It is a logical fallacy to say that because he possessed stolen merch that means he did the burglary, that's why they can't convict for burglary when merely possessing.

Nina's story has no corroboration at all and even if Diaz was burgled we have no way to tie Rudi to it.

CT doesn't even say he is sure it was Rudi only that after looking at the pictures of him in the papers he believes it could be him.

He was clearly in the nursery but no sign of a break in and nothing stolen of consequence. He did similar things in Germany for sleep.

 

[lonepinealex]

I did not quote from the Wiki Article: I quoted from the Google Search.
The statements are what appears on teh google search.
The second is in no way accurate, since the second does not even HINT at acquital or "wrongly convicted", readin g it would lead you to think that she is STILL accused of the murder.

Well you indicated you were quoting from the wiki, so how could I have possibly known otherwise? The quote you posted initially is not inaccurate, hence I couldn't see a problem. Even the truncated google version is not technically inaccurate.

 

[Antony]

Hellmann's exoneration was annulled, cancelled, blocked, spiked, shredded, ripped up, thrown in the garbage, flushed down the john, is no more, is non-extant, extinct, dead.


Clear now?

How many times has it been pointed out to you that the Massei and Nencini courts, which you are so fond of citing, have exactly the same status?

 

[Kauffer]

Any one going to this?

Yes. I am.

 

[Antony]

...

CT doesn't even say he is sure it was Rudi only that after looking at the pictures of him in the papers he believes it could be him.

...

If that's the case, it's a heavy irony with all the certainty that's attached to the Curatolo (and Kokomani) "evidence" by some people.

 

[Grinder]

If that's the case, it's a heavy irony with all the certainty that's attached to the Curatolo (and Kokomani) "evidence" by some people.

Yes even though Curatolo is "certain" his testimony was worthless. Also many here believe that Curatolo's testimony is diminished by the fact that he didn't ID them until after seeing their pics in the paper.

But people here have accepted CT even though he isn't sure and only came forward with the Rudi ID after seeing the pics.

Goose Gander.

 

[lonepinealex]

Yes. I am.

Ace, I'd like to go, but no dice.