Continuation - Ukraine erupts in riots and general strikes

[CapelDodger]

The previous thread (found HERE) was getting long and unwieldy, so I have opened this continuation thread. As always, the split point is arbitrary and you are free to quote from the previous thread into this one.

Posted By: Agatha

The word Fascist and Right-wing is being thrown around a lot these days.

Not just these days, I've had to put up with it all my life and it's damned irritating for those of us who've taken the trouble to find out what "fascist" signifies, with all its complexity.

Fascists in Russia, on the other hand, already hold three times bigger and ten times richer state,

No, they don't. Putin's regime and system is not Fascist. Putin's system is authoritarian, while fascism is totalitarian - it intrudes into every facet of life. Authoritarians intrude as much as they think necessary and no more. It's a crucial distinction.

Putin's war on gays is his own personal issue which he's being allowed to indulge but it's in no way fundamental to the system.

 

[CapelDodger]

The Ukrainian Narrative Is Fast Unraveling

The Ukrainian narrative is fast unfolding.

 

[Aber]

The fighting also helps the Ukrainian narrative on the international stage - it reinforces the idea that Putin was not negotiating in good faith. As a result the EU imposed extra sanctions on Monday; if the ceasefire had held completely, then I don't think this would have happened.

 

[McHrozni]

National identities are usually created in opposition to some other national identity. This war could be the making of Ukraine - and I'm not the only person to be thinking that. I'm just the one with the least influence on events.

Many national identities trace their origins to a war. For Germany it was the triumph in Franco-Prussian war, for Spain and Portugal it was reconquista. For Netherlands the Dutch revolt in 16th century was crucial, US had Revolutionary war and so on. It could very well be this war will be what Ukraine needed to turn from a state with a Ukrainian majority to a Ukrainian nation-state.

The process can still be derailed by a half-hearted peace deal, followed by a massive worsening of corruption in Ukraine, making people almost ashamed of being ukrainians once again. But barring that, I don't see any option of this not happening, regardless of the result - up to and especially in the case of Russia occupying and annexing all of Ukraine.

McHrozni

 

[McHrozni]

No, they don't. Putin's regime and system is not Fascist. Putin's system is authoritarian, while fascism is totalitarian - it intrudes into every facet of life. Authoritarians intrude as much as they think necessary and no more. It's a crucial distinction.

Putin's war on gays is his own personal issue which he's being allowed to indulge but it's in no way fundamental to the system.

http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2014/05/12/why-it’s-time-start-calling-putin-fascist
http://www.spiegel.de/international...utin-betray-fascist-inspiration-a-967283.html
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/02/putins-russia-is-already-classic.html

Identify this bird: it walks, swims, dives, quacks, looks exactly like and has a DNA of a duck. Do you think it is a duck?

War on gays is just one tiny aspect of the whole thing, a part which I don't even find particularily important. The economic system, where big companies run in bed with the government is quite vital and it follows fascist patterns closely. Political system is no different from classical fascism in any way. He identifies with glorious past, engages in virulent nationalism, creates youth groups to bully and intimidiate the opposition ... . He is confident his nation and values are superior to all others, and must fight moral decay of West. He seeks to unite all Russians in Russia by retaking historical wrongs. What is this, if not fascist?

Furthermore, whereas I agree with your distinction of authoritarianism from totalitarianism, I think that both assertions you make are wrong. Fascism is not necessarily totalitarian, nor is Putler's Russia just authoritarian - it has significant totalitarian tendencies.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2014/05/window-on-eurasia-putins-russia-already.html

I wouldn't call it totalitarian (yet), but he certainly is going from "intrude no more than I have to" point towards something worse.

Do you have any important aspects of fascism not present in Russia? I can't think of any.

McHrozni

 

[crescent]

The Ukrainian Narrative Is Fast Unraveling

Poroshenko and the Ukrainian government have also failed on a second, even larger lie. They emphatically denied the existence of the Debaltsevo (Debaltseve) cauldron. This was after the armed forces of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics announced that up to 9000 Ukrainian forces had been surrounded and cut off from resupply.

And yet, despite being cut off, they have managed to withdraw 80% of their forces and equipment in one day.

It could be that Ukraine now has magic Star-Trek transporter technology and have used it to implement the withdrawl. Or, it could be that the "Cauldron" was not a cauldron but a salient, albeit one that was in danger of being cut off and for which access was frequently difficult.

 

[carlitos]

Yeah, but that's reality. What fun is reporting on reality, when you can report Putin's talking points?

 

[jimbob]

The Ukrainian Narrative Is Fast Unraveling

The desperation of Poroshenko to secure money and weaponry for a catastrophically bankrupt and corrupt Ukraine has been emphasized by his increased theatrics. His quick to be disproved unveiling of fake Russian passports at the Munich Security Council is a key indicator of a shift in public discourse. Instead of again immediately blaming Russia, people pointed out that Russian soldiers do not have passports, but military IDs. Poroshenko was caught red-handed in a blatant lie on the world stage.

That shows nothing. If acknowledged Russian servicemen have been in Crimea without unit markings or anything (except their equipment) identifying them as Russian, one can't say that any Russian servicemen in Ukraine would have military IDs.

Alternatively some people fighting on the separatist side might be Russian nationals. They might be there on their own initiative, or sponsored by the Russian state - like Igor Strelkov, "the coordinator of those "Donetsk people's republic forces"" who admitted that he was sponsored by Russia

Meanwhile here is a Guardian article about Bellingcat (Brown Moses) using open information to give even stronger evidence of Russian state involvement.

The Bellingcat team analysed crater patterns from satellite photos of three battlefields where the Ukrainian army came under particularly savage attack last summer and traced the estimated trajectories back to likely firing positions, where it identified scorch marks and tyre tracks on satellite images consistent with Russian rocket-launchers.

With a single exception, the identified firing positions were on Russian soil. Furthermore, the tracks to and from the firing positions led further inside Russia, further evidence that they were Russian units, not separatist fighters who had strayed across the border. Images of the same terrain just before the attacks show no track marks or scorched earth.

An independent military forensics expert warned that the accuracy of crater analysis in determining direction of fire on the basis of satellite photography was scientifically unproven, but said that the images of firing positions on the Russian side of the border were compelling and raised questions of what they were doing there.

 

[Childlike Empress]

And yet, despite being cut off, they have managed to withdraw 80% of their forces and equipment in one day.

It could be that Ukraine now has magic Star-Trek transporter technology and have used it to implement the withdrawl. Or, it could be that the "Cauldron" was not a cauldron but a salient, albeit one that was in danger of being cut off and for which access was frequently difficult.

Porky went from "there is no cauldron" since Friday to "nobody surrenders" yesterday to "we are withdrawing as planned" today. He simply makes it up as he goes along and that is finally noticed in "loyalist" circles. If you believe that 80% "withdrew" today with their equipment, I can't help but tell you to stop drinking the kool-aid.

 

[jimbob]

And the more in-depth Bellingcat article about this with more discussion and examples

 

[crescent]

Porky went from "there is no cauldron" since Friday to "nobody surrenders" yesterday to "we are withdrawing as planned" today.

Here's the thing: There was no cauldron, as evidenced by the fact that the Ukrainian troops did not surrender (not the great majority, at least) because they were able to withdraw. "Porky's" statements do not actually contradict each other.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Here's the thing: There was no cauldron, as evidenced by the fact that the Ukrainian troops did not surrender (not the great majority, at least) because they were able to withdraw. "Porky's" statements do not actually contradict each other.

How do you know that they were able to withdraw?

 

[crescent]

How do you know that they were able to withdraw?

Nearly every news source? CNN, BBC, Reuters, and others all have correspondents who have witnessed it and spoken to the retreating soldiers, who confirm that they were in Debaltseve and were pulled out yesterday or today. The correspondents reports that the troops have tanks, trucks, and other armored vehicles with them, so they did not surrender their equipment.

It is not clear how many got out, but even the separatists are only claiming to have captured some hundreds of Ukrainian troops, not the thousands they were predicting.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Nearly every news source? CNN, BBC, Reuters, and others all have correspondents who have witnessed it and spoken to the retreating soldiers, who confirm that they were in Debaltseve and were pulled out yesterday or today. The correspondents reports that the troops have tanks, trucks, and other armored vehicles with them, so they did not surrender their equipment.

It is not clear how many got out, but even the separatists are only claiming to have captured some hundreds of Ukrainian troops, not the thousands they were predicting.

Putin asked the rebels to let them withdraw.

 

[crescent]

Putin asked the rebels to let them withdraw.

Do you have a source for that? I mean, it is possible - but everything I have read said that Putin stated over and over again that the government forces were surrounded, unable to withdraw and should abandon their weapons and surrender to the separatists. That was his key bargaining point in Minsk - that the Ukrainian troops were trapped, doomed to death or defeat and that he was only trying to save them by getting them to surrender. He called upon the separatists to provide surrendering Ukrainian troops with food and clothing, and suggested that these troops could then be returned to Ukraine.

That didn't happen. This is not a victory for Ukraine by any means, but is might not be a disaster either. If they really did manage to get the bulk of their troops and equipment out, then they have prevented the Russians and separatists from achieving the full scope of victory that Russia had been looking for. The Ukrainian command might have also demonstrated to their own troops that they will make appropriate decisions and not throw away lives in endless encirclements.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Nearly every news source? CNN, BBC, Reuters, and others all have correspondents who have witnessed it and spoken to the retreating soldiers, who confirm that they were in Debaltseve and were pulled out yesterday or today. The correspondents reports that the troops have tanks, trucks, and other armored vehicles with them, so they did not surrender their equipment.

It is not clear how many got out, but even the separatists are only claiming to have captured some hundreds of Ukrainian troops, not the thousands they were predicting.

In Artemisk? The "correspondents" likely have no means of knowing if that equipment came from the cauldron or was already there (support station). They just parrot what they're told. And what you say about the separatists claims comes obviously from dubious second hand information as well. They say there are still about 2-3K inside the cauldron, some tried to break out, days ago, which they payed with their lives (I posted a video of Logvinovo towards the end of the last thread that shows the remains), and hundreds have surrendered and were sent home. Without equipment. There's video of that as well.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Meanwhile here is a Guardian article about Bellingcat (Brown Moses) using open information to give even stronger evidence of Russian state involvement.

Yeah, I read about that on twitter.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Do you have a source for that?

Putin asked Kiev to order a surrender and the rebels to let them go home.

 

[HoverBoarder]

Do you have a source for that? I mean, it is possible - but everything I have read said that Putin stated over and over again that the government forces were surrounded, unable to withdraw and should abandon their weapons and surrender to the separatists. That was his key bargaining point in Minsk - that the Ukrainian troops were trapped, doomed to death or defeat and that he was only trying to save them by getting them to surrender. He called upon the separatists to provide surrendering Ukrainian troops with food and clothing, and suggested that these troops could then be returned to Ukraine.

That didn't happen. This is not a victory for Ukraine by any means, but is might not be a disaster either. If they really did manage to get the bulk of their troops and equipment out, then they have prevented the Russians and separatists from achieving the full scope of victory that Russia had been looking for. The Ukrainian command might have also demonstrated to their own troops that they will make appropriate decisions and not throw away lives in endless encirclements.

Not sure if this was a mistranslation of his words, but at least according to this article and a VOA article,

Putin calls on Ukraine troops encircled at debaltseve to surrender

Russian President Vladimir Putin is calling on pro-Russian rebels to allow besieged Ukrainian troops safe passage out of the encircled town of Debaltseve in eastern Ukraine.

 

[Childlike Empress]

Nearly every news source? CNN, BBC, Reuters, and others all have correspondents who have witnessed it and spoken to the retreating soldiers, who confirm that they were in Debaltseve and were pulled out yesterday or today. The correspondents reports that the troops have tanks, trucks, and other armored vehicles with them, so they did not surrender their equipment.

It is not clear how many got out, but even the separatists are only claiming to have captured some hundreds of Ukrainian troops, not the thousands they were predicting.

Not unlikely "nearly every news source" will report soon that the evil Putin is attacking the next peaceful village, Olchowatka, omitting that it's in the same cauldron that has since its existence been larger than Debaltsevo, and where some of the Ukie troops "withdrew" now to, still being trapped, a bit more south. You might want to take a look at the maps to get an understanding. Scroll down for older versions going back to long before Minsk II, accuractely showing what was a "salient" at that time.

The maps from this side are always quite in touch with the news of the future, while those from the other side have been utterly ridiculous wishful thinking, as I've shown countless times already. I wonder why people always go back to point zero after that. Must be because "nearly every news source" does so as well.