Continuation Part 13: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[platonov]

Tales of Helmig et al in CartWheel World Ep21.....

Thanks platonov. Here is a source I came across:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1440-1746.2006.04449.x/abstract

Since no food was found in the proximal small intestines, the relevant variable is t lag. The median t lag for food is 81.5 minutes. 75th percentile is 102 minutes. T lag for solids was not normally distributed so we can't calculate confidence intervals, but given the median and the interquartile range it is a slam dunk that she died within ~3 hours or so of starting her meal.

Since you are big on "actual numbers" with respect to medicine and are only interested in physical reality (and not... "cartwheel world", as you call it, right?) this, combined with information regarding access times of files on Raf's computer, makes it impossible she and Raffaele were at the cottage when Meredith died.

I do hope you stay grounded in this physical reality, and actual quantifiable numbers, as you say you do. This will be a good test for that. It would be unfortunate if all of this was a charade and you are in actuality so biased that you ignore all of science when it contradicts your desire to see Amanda in prison.

...... Hedderich is attacked by a badger.



No. – see first para in first link of post 723.
Or read the thread.

 

[platonov]

As so often, platonov has (either knowingly or unknowingly.....) misunderstood the statistical analysis that I undertook some time ago.

The point it this: if we apply the experimentally-acquired data as they stand, it is a more-or-less certainty that Kercher died before 9.30pm, and a total certainty that she died before 10pm. But we must of course also account for differences to the experimental data, related to things like the slightly different composition and quantity of Kercher's meal versus the experimental meal, different environmental conditions, and so on. So that's where I suggested that even with an error correcting factor of 25% (which I said was - quite deliberately - a very over-generous amount of correction, in order to prove the point), it was still a near certainty that Kercher died long before 10pm and a total certainty that she died before 10.30pm.

Platonov either doesn't understand or chooses not to understand that it's perfectly possible to calculate precise statistical probabilities arising from experimental data, but to then need to account for any possibly differences between the experimental scenario and the "real world". And in accounting for such differences, it's customary to over-estimate the correcting factor if one wants to give the results any intellectual vigour (e.g. even if Mr A were 25% less good at critical thinking than Mr B, Mr A would still be far, far better at critical thinking than Mr B ).

Oh LJ .

Never mind. On this occasion I shall be conciliatory.I will concede that some unnamed party, yourself perhaps, is 25 no 50% better than me at critical thinking, You can even use my concession as your sig. With a link to both posts of course. This and the original.


And we shall never speak of this again.

 

[Samson]

I always wondered if this explained the Callunia conviction by Hellman. The lay judges voted for guilt so Helman had to go along with it hence the rather ambivalent motivation report.

A new idea from left field everyday.
Plausible, but there are reports that Hellmann expressed regret at finding guilt for Callunnia.
Popper is a 48 year old who writes fluent Italian and English, but lives elsewhere, and a brutal and ignorant guilter, yet he seems sure of what he writes.

 

[Annella]

Amanda's conviction is final. It cannot be reversed nor annulled.

Amanda's conviction is final??? What do you know that we dont Mach?
I wonder if you are being monitored because you really are aiding and abetting the downfall of your country's Justice System! It does a pretty damned good job on its own but your wee pushes assuredly help the process along!

Roll on March 25th.

ETA: I am reliably informed you were referring to the calunnia conviction so will take a step back from my comment above. Except the last part.

 

[Samson]

Amanda's conviction is final??? What do you know that we dont Mach?
I wonder if you are being monitored because you really are aiding and abetting the downfall of your country's Justice System! It does a pretty damned good job on its own but your wee pushes assuredly help the process along!

Roll on March 25th.

Mach is referring to the cullunia, er accused an innocent black man as a guilty white woman.

 

[MichaelB]

I've been reading the treasure trove of new documents on Naseer Ahmad's fake wiki.

We've all heard so much about Raffaele's Kate Mansey interview with guilters saying he changed stories and told lies and we always said she was a useless hack and her articles were filled with mistakes. Well on page 25 of the Knox phone taps she's telling someone Raffaele is pissed because he spoke to a journalist and they twisted everything he said.

In Raffaele's phone taps on page 9-10 he's telling someone he did the interview because they worked for the paper that the father of the girl who died worked for and he couldn't say no.

on page 28 he says "she slept with me that night then we went to the house the next morning and found everything".

on page 95 of the prison bugging. Amanda tells her parents the cops beat her and her parents tell her the lawyers said they can't say that because they'd have to file a complaint and it'll lead to more problems. In another part she clearly identifies the person who did it was the woman who lead her outside on the 6th.

 

[Strozzi]

This is clearly not true. What I have seen in the MOF, the Sarah Scazzi, and the Kercher cases, is that people are arrested, charged, and their lives are destroyed, financially.
I will speak from New Zealand here.
None of this has or ever can happen.
Given that Amanda was struck twice on the head from behind, and you agree because you do not counter the claim, we must never countenance arresting her parents for repeating the truthfull allegation.
However, by all means state that Amanda made a false statement about the physical blows, so we have it on record.

IIRC, Mignini in an interview with an American journalist stated that perhaps Amanda was bumped from behind. He is clearly trying to "spin" the hit as an accident.

Amanda said she was slapped twice in two separate actions by a policewoman subsequently identified as Ficarra. Amanda said that Ficarra after one hit told her it was to "help her remember".

Mignini, who gave the order to detain Amanda, knew from Amanda's account that she alleged that she had been hit in interrogation in a police interrogation room by a policewoman. Mignini should have instantly taken action to compartment Amanda for her safety from the police officers present in the interrogation. Mignini left his prisoner exposed to potential further assault. Mignini bears moral responsibility as a senior official with authority over Amanda for this failure, irrespective of his other failures in this case.

 

[MichaelB]

Also in the phone taps she says that Filomena was trying to get contact details for Meredith's father from the police and they wanted to have dinner or something with him so they could tell them everything they knew.

 

[Samson]

I've been reading the treasure trove of new documents on Naseer Ahmad's fake wiki.

We've all heard so much about Raffaele's Kate Mansey interview with guilters saying he changed stories and told lies and we always said she was a useless hack and her articles were filled with mistakes. Well on page 25 of the Knox phone taps she's telling someone Raffaele is pissed because he spoke to a journalist and they twisted everything he said.

In Raffaele's phone taps on page 9-10 he's telling someone he did the interview because they worked for the paper that the father of the girl who died worked for and he couldn't say no.

on page 28 he says "she slept with me that night then we went to the house the next morning and found everything".

on page 95 of the prison bugging. Amanda tells her parents the cops beat her and her parents tell her the lawyers said they can't say that because they'd have to file a complaint and it'll lead to more problems. In another part she clearly identifies the person who did it was the woman who lead her outside on the 6th.

Machiavelli will never respond to my post by agreeing with the collusion by the eleven police that Amanda was not struck. Machiavelli knows she was, but he knows the tuning of Italian law allows that the parents should be charged. Victory.

 

[toto]

A fast track trial is not equivalent to pleading guilty.

Out of interest, what percentage of Fast track trials ends with acquittal? I would have thought such trials allow less time for evidence to be properly examined?

 

[Strozzi]

To say that people must be afraid about retaliation from authorities when they speak in Italy is delusional. Thus is the land of wild and rabid dreams from which some Knox supporters should better depart, for the sake if the health, and have a look at the real world.

Kaosium you should be careful talking about things you don't have any clue about.

Machiavelli, I wonder if Curatola would agree with you about no retaliation from authorities when they speak. We could ask him, but he is dead. He died in detention.

Curatolo, at the repeated prompting of a wanna-be journalist months after the night of the murder, "remembered" having seen something that made him a witness in this very high profile case. The police or prosecutor then decided to pick him up (arrest him) for a drug deal they knew about from 4 or so years earlier. What they were really doing at that point was to take Curatolo off the street so he could not be interviewed by journalists or defense counsel, as that would expose his garbled account of what he allegedly saw or the manner in which Curatolo, who immediately following the night of the crime had told a police officer he had seen nothing, came to his recent sensational story.

 

[Bill Williams]

A fast track trial is not equivalent to pleading guilty.

Out of interest, what percentage of Fast track trials ends with acquittal? I would have thought such trials allow less time for evidence to be properly examined?

This would be one of those rare occasions when the defendant trusted that the judge was not going to accept what the PM said, simply on the PM's say-so. Presumably the trial would never take place unless the PM wanted it to.... and a fast-track is essentially an ordinary trial with the evidence phase missing.

So it would presumably be one of those cases where the PM was going to barrel-ahead anyway, and the defendant risked that innocence would be readily apparent.

 

[Bill Williams]

Machiavelli, I wonder if Curatola would agree with you about no retaliation from authorities when they speak. We could ask him, but he is dead. He died in detention.

Curatolo, at the repeated prompting of a wanna-be journalist months after the night of the murder, "remembered" having seen something that made him a witness in this very high profile case. The police or prosecutor then decided to pick him up (arrest him) for a drug deal they knew about from 4 or so years earlier. What they were really doing at that point was to take Curatolo off the street so he could not be interviewed and recorded by journalists or defense counsel, as that would expose his garbled account of what he allegedly saw or the manner in which Curatolo, who immediately following the night of the crime had told a police officer he had seen nothing, came to his recent sensational story.

One also wonders if Lumumba would really feel comfortable, as well, sticking with his first account of the way he was treated at arrest.

Even though he'd been completely exonerated, his bar was kept closed so his livelihood was taken away from him. Try as they might, even the most cynical guilter has never tried to pin the closing of Lumumba's bar on Amanda Knox.

Then............... lo and behold, Lumumba is shown a way to recover money from this economic misfortune. The deal is that he has to launch a calunnia action against Knox, which will run concurrent with the murder allegations. This way the same panel of popular/professional judges will hear the "confessions" which otherwise are inadmissible at the murder trial.

 

[Bill Williams]

I've been reading the treasure trove of new documents on Naseer Ahmad's fake wiki.

We've all heard so much about Raffaele's Kate Mansey interview with guilters saying he changed stories and told lies and we always said she was a useless hack and her articles were filled with mistakes. Well on page 25 of the Knox phone taps she's telling someone Raffaele is pissed because he spoke to a journalist and they twisted everything he said.

In Raffaele's phone taps on page 9-10 he's telling someone he did the interview because they worked for the paper that the father of the girl who died worked for and he couldn't say no.

on page 28 he says "she slept with me that night then we went to the house the next morning and found everything".

on page 95 of the prison bugging. Amanda tells her parents the cops beat her and her parents tell her the lawyers said they can't say that because they'd have to file a complaint and it'll lead to more problems. In another part she clearly identifies the person who did it was the woman who lead her outside on the 6th.

Apparently there's a secret transcript of a recording of Amanda with her dad, Curt Knox. Someone named McCall claims it contains an admission of guilt.

There's a whole host of questions, not the least of which is - why can they record and transcribe prison conversations, and not police interrogations?

Then there's one that tends to call McCall's integrity into question - why was this never used at trial? Why is there a concerted effort - 7 years after the event itself and 6 weeks before the potentially final Cassazione ruling - to skew the record like this, with something that comes straight out of the blue?

Who is giving this stuff to McCall?

 

[MichaelB]

Apparently there's a secret transcript of a recording of Amanda with her dad, Curt Knox. Someone named McCall claims it contains an admission of guilt.

There's a whole host of questions, not the least of which is - why can they record and transcribe prison conversations, and not police interrogations?

Then there's one that tends to call McCall's integrity into question - why was this never used at trial? Why is there a concerted effort - 7 years after the event itself and 6 weeks before the potentially final Cassazione ruling - to skew the record like this, with something that comes straight out of the blue?

Who is giving this stuff to McCall?

Mach said Maresca gave it to them and they've developed a relationship built on trust.

 

[Desert Fox]

Apparently there's a secret transcript of a recording of Amanda with her dad, Curt Knox. Someone named McCall claims it contains an admission of guilt.

If there is, which I am skeptical, how much do you want to bet that it is an ambiguous phrasing that it tortured into proving guilt?

 

[Strozzi]

The ECHR cannot reverse convictions.

You are of course correct. The ECHR cannot reverse convictions. I should have been more precise in my earlier comment, and appreciate your correction of my casual statement.

The ECHR may determine that the manner in which Knox's statements were obtained and used (interrogation of one who is clearly suspected, without providing the suspect with legal protections due a suspect) violated her rights, and order Italy to remedy (vacate) the resultant conviction. Italy can of course refuse to do so.

I wonder how other countries or organizations might respond if Italy were ordered to remedy the conviction and failed to do so? The U.S. Department of State would almost certainly include this in both internal use and public assessment of human rights and legal conditions in Italy. Would they have to issue guidance or a "travel advisory" to U.S. citizens in Italy or to citizens contemplating travel to Italy?

Would U.S. college and university administrations have to consider this as they contemplate continuing their study abroad programs in Italy? Suppose a university sent students to Italy and one fell under suspicion in a crime and had their rights as a suspect violated by Italian authorities in a similar way as occurred to Knox. What is the legal obligation and liability of the university in such a case? I suppose universities can ask students to sign waivers before going on a university-approved study trip to Italy.

 

[carbonjam72]

This would be one of those rare occasions when the defendant trusted that the judge was not going to accept what the PM said, simply on the PM's say-so. Presumably the trial would never take place unless the PM wanted it to.... and a fast-track is essentially an ordinary trial with the evidence phase missing.

So it would presumably be one of those cases where the PM was going to barrel-ahead anyway, and the defendant risked that innocence would be readily apparent.

The trial of the pharmacist Calamandrei in Florence in 2007-8 was fast track, and resulted in acquittal.

According to Spezi/Preston MOF, they wanted fast track because they wanted the case done asap, and even granting the evidence as true, they still thought there was no case.

And they were right, they destroyed Mignini's farcical Narducci trail case, but that didn't stop Mignini from following up with his next crazy satanic sect case against the Florence twenty, including Spezi, Narducci's father and brother, even the Narducci's maid.

I think the lack of confidence seen here, and even cynicism towards Italian caourt proceedings is overly jaded by the failings in this case. I don't think every case is this crooked, every PM as corrupt, litigious and crazy as Mignini, every judge as bad and corrupt as the convicting judges here, and all lawyers as shamelessly ruthless and criminal as Maresca and Pacelli.

It's a problem, even a deep problem. Everyone seems to grasp that reforms are necessary and long over due. But I think its going too far to think every case is tried in the press, all proceedings are fixed, all experts are dishonest, and so on. Yet the quantity of malfeasance on display in this case, in full view and even televised, is breath-taking, and heart-breaking.

I'm rooting for Italy to do better. Italy deserves better.

 

[Diocletus]

Amanda's conviction is final. It cannot be reversed nor annulled.

If the echr decides that Italy violated Knox's human rights, then nobody is going to care about any Calunnia conviction.

 

[carbonjam72]

You are of course correct. The ECHR cannot reverse convictions. I should have been more precise in my earlier comment, and appreciate your correction of my casual statement.

The ECHR may determine that the manner in which Knox's statements were obtained and used (interrogation of one who is clearly suspected, without providing the suspect with legal protections due a suspect) violated her rights, and order Italy to remedy (vacate) the resultant conviction. Italy can of course refuse to do so.

I wonder how other countries or organizations might respond if Italy were ordered to remedy the conviction and failed to do so? The U.S. Department of State would almost certainly include this in both internal use and public assessment of human rights and legal conditions in Italy. Would they have to issue guidance or a "travel advisory" to U.S. citizens in Italy or to citizens contemplating travel to Italy?

Would U.S. college and university administrations have to consider this as they contemplate continuing their study abroad programs in Italy? Suppose a university sent students to Italy and one fell under suspicion in a crime and had their rights as a suspect violated by Italian authorities in a similar way as occurred to Knox. What is the legal obligation and liability of the university in such a case? I suppose universities can ask students to sign waivers before going on a university-approved study trip to Italy.

It really is poor oversight by univ of Wash, and a gap in protocols for handling how students interact with local authorities in the event of criminal proceedings.

For example, the policy should be, under no circumstance are students allowed to talk to police in the absence of a University representative or US embassy personnel.

It should be clear policy and protocol that the police should know they are not allowed to interrogate foreign students without lawyers or representatives.

The UW was reckless in their lack of oversight of Amanda, and their failure to provide any protections that might have avoided this whole fiasco.

Without the illegal interrogations and coerced statements, there would have been no arrests of Amanda, Raf and Patrick.

But Mignini himself was a hazard to the public safety. His paranoia, mental imbalance, narcissism and sadism, combined with the powers of state, made him an ongoing menace to society. Italy should have stopped Mignini, rather than allowing him to continue rampaging through the countryside with his crazy theories and meritless claims.