Continuation Part 13: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[MDDVS]

False confessions may happen in interrogations lasting only 1 or 2 hours:

http://vimeo.com/86046579

 

[Desert Fox]

I haven't. I can Google it.

I'd skip it. Looks like the sick ravings of an unrepentant monster. You don't need to see what they say, just consider the evidence of what they do. Their vocalizations and expressions are symptoms of their illness, not defenses. No point in exposing yourself unnecessarily to it. imo -

The only reason I recommend it is that the letter makes it damn clear that he raped and murdered Mechelle Moore Bosko on his own yet they still prosecuted the sailors.

 

[Desert Fox]

You still can, anyway. But I know what you mean, it's difficult to get your head round the detail of more than two or three cases at once, and to be really involved in more than one.

If you want to make a difference IRL, I think you almost have to be in the right country, and/or the right nationality - unless you're a real accredited expert in some relevant discipline I suppose. I can take a couple of hours off work and go to see the Scottish police, and we're all talking with the same local accent. I can show up at radio and TV studios just half an hour away. I can attend parliamentary committee meetings. I can write letters to the newspapers with a local address.

I can't imagine how it would be possible to make a difference in that sort of way to a conviction that happened in the USA, or Italy, or New Zealand, or South Africa. I'm in the peanut gallery for these.

I look at a variety of cases. I would like to see the Norfolk Four fully exonerated for one thing. I want to get the US justice system interested in reform not vengeance. Whatever I dislike about the Italian legal system, at least they rarely "lock you up and throw away the key."

 

[Bill Williams]

That's very funny coming from the person that captured photographic evidence of police misconduct on her very first day in Perugia and has yet to mention it to anybody.

Hey Barbie, what else are you hiding?

Dan O. - Please say more. What is that all about?

 

[Dougm]

The subtitle of Barbie's article is "A wedding to die for." She opens with "It might seem perilous to marry a woman who has been convicted of murder..." Apparently Barbie decided to challenge Andrea in the "you can't fix stupid" derby.

That article should be saved and shown as an example of Nadeau's incredibly juvenile and unprofessional tabloid writing style. What a scumbag. Even if I thought Amanda was guilty, I would write something less sleazy than that article.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

Open door

Dan O. - Please say more. What is that all about?

Bill,

Dan O. can explain it more thoroughly, but she photographed the door of the cottage being open, despite the presence of crime scene tape, IIRC. Hardly a "sealed" crime scene, despite what PG commenters are apt to say.

 

[Bill Williams]

Dan O. - Please say more. What is that all about?

Bill,

Dan O. can explain it more thoroughly, but she photographed the door of the cottage being open, despite the presence of crime scene tape, IIRC. Hardly a "sealed" crime scene, despite what PG commenters are apt to say.

I remember those photos. So much for a sealed crime scene.

Barbie Latza Nadeau could not be any more contemptible.

 

[Methos]

I remember those photos. So much for a sealed crime scene.

Barbie Latza Nadeau could not be any more contemptible.

La Strada Blog Nov 14, 2007

The door looked like this on Dec 18, 2007:

 

[Bill Williams]

La Strada Blog Nov 14, 2007

[qimg]http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_BZD30a25FmE/Rz11xR3I6kI/AAAAAAAACJY/qgTeHey702M/s1600/Perugia+crime+scene+-+front+door.jpg[/qimg]

The door looked like this on Dec 18, 2007:

[qimg]http://murderofmeredithkercher.com/wp-content/uploads/Crime%20Scene%20Photos%20December%2018/002.jpg[/qimg]

Yes, those are the photos I saw.

Barbie Nadeau took these? She is beneath contempt.

 

[Desert Fox]

La Strada Blog Nov 14, 2007

[qimg]http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_BZD30a25FmE/Rz11xR3I6kI/AAAAAAAACJY/qgTeHey702M/s1600/Perugia+crime+scene+-+front+door.jpg[/qimg]

The door looked like this on Dec 18, 2007:

[qimg]http://murderofmeredithkercher.com/wp-content/uploads/Crime%20Scene%20Photos%20December%2018/002.jpg[/qimg]

I played with the colors a bit and you can clearly see that it (the door) is open on November 14. Was not 100% sure at first.

Even if nobody entered (being overly charitable), just the exposure to wind would have caused microscopic [Edit: Biological] materials to drift around the crime scene.

Anybody have any pictures if the broken window was boarded up at this time (November 14)?

 

[Bill Williams]

I played with the colors a bit and you can clearly see that it is open on November 18. Was not 100% sure at first.

Even if nobody entered (being overly charitable), just the exposure to wind would have caused microscopic materials to drift around the crime scene.

Anybody have any pictures if the broken window was boarded up at this time (November 14)?

There is an undated picture of Filomena's window, boarded up. I saw it once, and when challenged to find it again almost broke the internet looking for it.

Suffice it to say that sometime between when the window was broken, and years' later when the bars appeared on that window (to prevent entry through this impossible entry point!).....

The window was boarded up. If, indeed, it was well after Dec 18, who knows what manner of material blew in the window!?

Your mileage may vary.

 

[Desert Fox]

There is an undated picture of Filomena's window, boarded up. I saw it once, and when challenged to find it again almost broke the internet looking for it.

Suffice it to say that sometime between when the window was broken, and years' later when the bars appeared on that window (to prevent entry through this impossible entry point!).....

The window was boarded up. If, indeed, it was well after Dec 18, who knows what manner of material blew in the window!?

Your mileage may vary.

The trouble is that the pro guilt side either does not understand this or pretends that they do not understand. It is almost mind boggling.

 

[Methos]

Yes, those are the photos I saw.

Barbie Nadeau took these? She is beneath contempt.

Barbie took the first, the second is part of the Dec, 18th 2007 package Charlie Wilkes posted here ages ago, the original link is gone, but the file has been preserved here.

 

[NotEvenWrong]

Well, IIRC [and I usually do] there were no confidence intervals – just very precise figures.

That’s not to say it was completely lacking in ‘error bars’ – there was always the ‘25% correcting factor’ to fall back on.

Happy to be of assistance.

Thanks platonov. Here is a source I came across:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1440-1746.2006.04449.x/abstract

Since no food was found in the proximal small intestines, the relevant variable is t lag. The median t lag for food is 81.5 minutes. 75th percentile is 102 minutes. T lag for solids was not normally distributed so we can't calculate confidence intervals, but given the median and the interquartile range it is a slam dunk that she died within ~3 hours or so of starting her meal.

Since you are big on "actual numbers" with respect to medicine and are only interested in physical reality (and not... "cartwheel world", as you call it, right?) this, combined with information regarding access times of files on Raf's computer, makes it impossible she and Raffaele were at the cottage when Meredith died.

I do hope you stay grounded in this physical reality, and actual quantifiable numbers, as you say you do. This will be a good test for that. It would be unfortunate if all of this was a charade and you are in actuality so biased that you ignore all of science when it contradicts your desire to see Amanda in prison.

 

[LondonJohn]

Thanks platonov. Here is a source I came across:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1440-1746.2006.04449.x/abstract

Since no food was found in the proximal small intestines, the relevant variable is t lag. The median t lag for food is 81.5 minutes. 75th percentile is 102 minutes. T lag for solids was not normally distributed so we can't calculate confidence intervals, but given the median and the interquartile range it is a slam dunk that she died within ~3 hours or so of starting her meal.

Since you are big on "actual numbers" with respect to medicine and are only interested in physical reality (and not... "cartwheel world", as you call it, right?) this, combined with information regarding access times of files on Raf's computer, makes it impossible she and Raffaele were at the cottage when Meredith died.

I do hope you stay grounded in this physical reality, and actual quantifiable numbers, as you say you do. This will be a good test for that. It would be unfortunate if all of this was a charade and you are in actuality so biased that you ignore all of science when it contradicts your desire to see Amanda in prison.

As so often, platonov has (either knowingly or unknowingly.....) misunderstood the statistical analysis that I undertook some time ago.

The point it this: if we apply the experimentally-acquired data as they stand, it is a more-or-less certainty that Kercher died before 9.30pm, and a total certainty that she died before 10pm. But we must of course also account for differences to the experimental data, related to things like the slightly different composition and quantity of Kercher's meal versus the experimental meal, different environmental conditions, and so on. So that's where I suggested that even with an error correcting factor of 25% (which I said was - quite deliberately - a very over-generous amount of correction, in order to prove the point), it was still a near certainty that Kercher died long before 10pm and a total certainty that she died before 10.30pm.

Platonov either doesn't understand or chooses not to understand that it's perfectly possible to calculate precise statistical probabilities arising from experimental data, but to then need to account for any possibly differences between the experimental scenario and the "real world". And in accounting for such differences, it's customary to over-estimate the correcting factor if one wants to give the results any intellectual vigour (e.g. even if Mr A were 25% less good at critical thinking than Mr B, Mr A would still be far, far better at critical thinking than Mr B ).

 

[christianahannah]

I played with the colors a bit and you can clearly see that it (the door) is open on November 14. Was not 100% sure at first.

Even if nobody entered (being overly charitable), just the exposure to wind would have caused microscopic [Edit: Biological] materials to drift around the crime scene.

Anybody have any pictures if the broken window was boarded up at this time (November 14)?

Would it be possible to post the photos you played around with? I can't tell either way from the photo posted (from La Strada) whether the door is open or closed. The photo is taken from an odd angle and I am not sure if a zoom lens was employed in the taking of the photo. Sometimes I think I can see a floor and bottom of wall and sometimes I think I just see blurs and artifacts.

 

[carbonjam72]

Thanks platonov. Here is a source I came across:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1440-1746.2006.04449.x/abstract

Since no food was found in the proximal small intestines, the relevant variable is t lag. The median t lag for food is 81.5 minutes. 75th percentile is 102 minutes. T lag for solids was not normally distributed so we can't calculate confidence intervals, but given the median and the interquartile range it is a slam dunk that she died within ~3 hours or so of starting her meal.

Since you are big on "actual numbers" with respect to medicine and are only interested in physical reality (and not... "cartwheel world", as you call it, right?) this, combined with information regarding access times of files on Raf's computer, makes it impossible she and Raffaele were at the cottage when Meredith died.

I do hope you stay grounded in this physical reality, and actual quantifiable numbers, as you say you do. This will be a good test for that. It would be unfortunate if all of this was a charade and you are in actuality so biased that you ignore all of science when it contradicts your desire to see Amanda in prison.

I think you have Grand master P all wrong. I don't think he wants to see Amanda in prison. I think he enjoys the discomfort of people who have concluded amanda and Raf are innocent, and this seems to be his motivation.

For example, has he, and some notable others, even actually taken a position on guilt or innocence? Ever tried to engage in debate over a piece of evidence?

Rudy Guede murdered Meredith, and rubbed one out while she lay dying. That takes a special kind of person. The posters who delight in others discomfort, they are special too, in their own way. And that must be respected, its not their fault, who and what they are.

 

[carbonjam72]

The subtitle of Barbie's article is "A wedding to die for." She opens with "It might seem perilous to marry a woman who has been convicted of murder..." Apparently Barbie decided to challenge Andrea in the "you can't fix stupid" derby.

Did Barbie change the title? It's now called, "Amanda Knox found someone to marry".

Written in the same tone. Offensive, that is.

Where does Barbie's malice come from? And why is the Daily Best continuing to give her a platform?

Is Tina Brown, our newly fellow American, and former Brit, just showing off for her friends?

I wish/hope, someday, Amanda sues them all. Or better yet, the government does on her behalf. Wouldn't that be a breadth of fresh air?

 

[christianahannah]

Did Barbie change the title? It's now called, "Amanda Knox found someone to marry".

Written in the same tone. Offensive, that is.

Where does Barbie's malice come from? And why is the Daily Best continuing to give her a platform?

Is Tina Brown, our newly fellow American, and former Brit, just showing off for her friends?

I wish/hope, someday, Amanda sues them all. Or better yet, the government does on her behalf. Wouldn't that be a breadth of fresh air?

No, it is still there in the subtitle part of the article (above the main heading).

 

[LondonJohn]

Would it be possible to post the photos you played around with? I can't tell either way from the photo posted (from La Strada) whether the door is open or closed. The photo is taken from an odd angle and I am not sure if a zoom lens was employed in the taking of the photo. Sometimes I think I can see a floor and bottom of wall and sometimes I think I just see blurs and artifacts.

The door is definitely wide open in the 14th Nov photo. You can see the tiling beyond where the door would be, plus even from that angle the closed door would without any doubt whatsoever be entirely visible if it were indeed closed.

I also suspect that the police might have left the balcony door and/or window either unlocked or even ajar in their incompetence, and that this might have had some relevance to the later break-ins.....