Continuation Part 13: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

Status
Not open for further replies.
That didn’t take long – we are only on page 19.

Why does platonov keep saying "cartwheel world"? Isn't he pro-guilt? And didn't the initial rumor/smear campaign against Knox indicate she did a "cartwheel" in the police station? So... um... wouldn't "cartwheel world" be the guilter view?

Does platonov even realize he's making fun of his own side...?



It's a way to avoid debating the actual case facts. Just make sarcastic remarks, add an emoticon or two, and only mention your own position in vague terms.

It's a reference to the origins of debate here on this case, where there was much discussion about how Knox was only accused because of her so called "odd behavior". We've moved beyond that now, to an actual discussion of legal issues, and that thing called "evidence", which the pro-guilt side mostly avoids talking about.



And we would have gotten away with it too but that pesky Mayor of Perugia just won’t let it lie :mad:
 
Last edited:
carbonjam72 said:
IIRC, John Douglas put meredith's Time of death at 10pm, from his chapter in 'Rudy Guede, Forgotten killer'.

Why? That's too late.

IIRC John Douglas did that principally on the aborted mobile call data, sort of like Judge Hellmann did.

Unlike Hellmann, though, John Douglas had no "judicial truth" reason to doubt the digestion evidence; meaning that Douglas had no particular reason to protect fawlty forensics, just because they were generated by the police. So, we'll all just have to go back and read Douglas on this.

The thing about his analysis of this case, is that he writes so straightforward about it. One actually understands the logic of his timeline, and how the evidence fits in - and more importantly to what is coming in March, how the bogus evidence fails to convict AK and/or RS.
 
Very recognisable as it happens.

Her entire meal was still in her stomach, and recognisable. Even if there had been some peculiar reason why gastric emptying was delayed, things like pizza and crumble don't remain recognisably pizza and crumble indefinitely.

I had to do a post mortem on a cat a month or two ago. His duodenum was empty, but he had two separate meals of cat food in his stomach. The pyloric region had mashed-up paste, ready to head for the duodenum, while the cardia had dry cat food pellets that had scarcely had time to moisten. This chap had died very suddenly, while possessed of a good appetite, very shortly after having tucked into his food dish, and also having eaten a meal perhaps three hours previously. It was of minor importance, as he turned out to have died of a sudden asthma attack, but it was possible to tell the owners that he hadn't been lying around in agony for hours.

It's the same with Meredith. A reasonably fresh meal still in the stomach means a fairly short time since she ate. End point of probability, not long after nine. She was seen alive shortly before nine. What's so hard about that?


Nothing - It was trivial ;)

See LINK and for completeness LINK
 
Last edited:
the combination of good pieces of evidence

Why? That's too late.
Rolfe,

Perhaps John Douglas was using the activity on Meredith's cell phones to estimate [or possibly to put an upper bound on] the TOD. BTW this is a good example of the right way to combine evidence. Both the cell phone data and the stomach/duodenum data individually point to an early TOD. Together, they are even more powerful IMO.
 
IIRC John Douglas did that principally on the aborted mobile call data, sort of like Judge Hellmann did.

Unlike Hellmann, though, John Douglas had no "judicial truth" reason to doubt the digestion evidence; meaning that Douglas had no particular reason to protect fawlty forensics, just because they were generated by the police. So, we'll all just have to go back and read Douglas on this.

The thing about his analysis of this case, is that he writes so straightforward about it. One actually understands the logic of his timeline, and how the evidence fits in - and more importantly to what is coming in March, how the bogus evidence fails to convict AK and/or RS.


Did he think she made these aborted calls? That seems extraordinarily unlikely to me. The theory that they were made by Guede while trying to turn the phone off is far more likely. Wasn't one of them to Abbey? Who phones their bank at that time of night? But it would have been first in the phonebook listing. That's probably why they called it that in the first place. Abbey National.
 
Rolfe,

Perhaps John Douglas was using the activity on Meredith's cell phones to estimate [or possibly to put an upper bound on] the TOD. BTW this is a good example of the right way to combine evidence. Both the cell phone data and the stomach/duodenum data individually point to an early TOD. Together, they are even more powerful IMO.

The library gave me just a few days on "Misleading DNA Evidence" so I went ahead and ordered a softbound copy.
 
Did he think she made these aborted calls? That seems extraordinarily unlikely to me. The theory that they were made by Guede while trying to turn the phone off is far more likely. Wasn't one of them to Abbey? Who phones their bank at that time of night? But it would have been first in the phonebook listing. That's probably why they called it that in the first place. Abbey National.

Assuming a call 24 system, not impossible. . . . Now with mobile banking, I just use the app but will check at some odd times.
 
Did he think she made these aborted calls? That seems extraordinarily unlikely to me. The theory that they were made by Guede while trying to turn the phone off is far more likely. Wasn't one of them to Abbey? Who phones their bank at that time of night? But it would have been first in the phonebook listing. That's probably why they called it that in the first place. Abbey National.

No, Rudy thought he was just calling one of Meredith's friends for another date, he'd heard 'Abbey' was very nice.
 
Nothing - It was trivial ;)

See LINK and for completeness LINK

I followed that alright, and got to

Quote:
Answering specific questions from the defence of Raffaele Sollecito, Dr. Lalli stated that death had intervened two to three hours after eating (page 47), while reaffirming that the emptying of the stomach generally occurs between two hours and a maximum of 4 hours after eating (page 62, hearing on April 3, 2009).
What time did Meredith eat? (ignoring for the moment 4 hours is wrong, wrong and wrong again under all circumstances where we are discussing gastric emptying commencement)
 
Once again, there have been a plethora of reports from this thread, making lots of work for your friendly overworked neighbourhood mods.

To be perfectly clear, it's not the reporters we have a problem with, it's the posters who continue to post off topic, who are uncivil and who indulge in personal attacks.

Recently, we have had to split several posts to AAH for being off-topic. We have many other threads in several sub-forums where you can indulge your penchants for chatting about things other than the topic of this thread, so we'd like you to keep this one strictly on topic.

Whilst we would prefer not to put this thread back on moderated status, it could happen if rules continue to be breached.
Replying to this modbox in thread will be off topic  Posted By: Agatha
 
Last edited:
Can a confidence interval be calculated for TOD with the digestion information?

i.e. 99.9% certain TOD before X pm
99% certain TOD before Y pm
95% certain TOD before Z pm

etc. etc.
 
Bill Williams said:
IIRC John Douglas did that principally on the aborted mobile call data, sort of like Judge Hellmann did.

Unlike Hellmann, though, John Douglas had no "judicial truth" reason to doubt the digestion evidence; meaning that Douglas had no particular reason to protect fawlty forensics, just because they were generated by the police. So, we'll all just have to go back and read Douglas on this.

The thing about his analysis of this case, is that he writes so straightforward about it. One actually understands the logic of his timeline, and how the evidence fits in - and more importantly to what is coming in March, how the bogus evidence fails to convict AK and/or RS.

Did he think she made these aborted calls? That seems extraordinarily unlikely to me. The theory that they were made by Guede while trying to turn the phone off is far more likely. Wasn't one of them to Abbey? Who phones their bank at that time of night? But it would have been first in the phonebook listing. That's probably why they called it that in the first place. Abbey National.

Holey Moley, I'm going to have to go off to a bookstore and reread John Douglas!

IIRC he was talking about the latest the poor victim could have been attacked. I'm also assuming that because so much of his expertise is on behaviour analysis, he'd default to that rather than speculate on what he's not particularly top-notch-expert in.

Speaking of which: behaviour. He's a direct competitor to the keystone cops who solved the case in Perugia on behavioural cues alone, then bragged that they'd done it even before the (fawlty) forensics came in!

John Douglas re-invented profiling by taking much of the guessing or hunching out of it. He actually conducted interviews in prison of people who had actually committed the various ranges of crimes and noted a remarkable similarity of the type of person vs. who does what.

Does this mean that someone who doesn't fit the profile can't do the deed? Of course not. Where Douglas came in handy, and he made a top-notch career out of it, was helping out an investigation stumped and stalled - by narrowing the list of potential suspects based on what he'd learned.

Was this 100% reliable? Of course not. Only the pro-guilt lobby insists on 100%, and even a single deviation from it brings the label "malicious liar" from them

IIRC it's because it was Meredith's behaviour that she normally & frequently contacted her ailing mom, that guided Douglas. That there were aborted calls just after 10 pm, and then no attempt after pretty much sealed the deal for him - if I am at all summarizing things fairly.

Add in the stomach contents forensics...... and he'd probably be happy with 9:30 pm as well, and it was Rudy who pressed the wrong buttons at 10 pm - who really knows?

The thing about reading the fake-Wiki or trying to follow the guilters on those rare occasions when they attempt a timeline or a narrative, is that one ends up understanding things less; except for they really do hate Amanda Knox. Reading John Douglas is the exact opposite. No wonder they attack him and any other independent who comes to the same conclusion.
 
Last edited:
Did he think she made these aborted calls? That seems extraordinarily unlikely to me. The theory that they were made by Guede while trying to turn the phone off is far more likely. Wasn't one of them to Abbey? Who phones their bank at that time of night? But it would have been first in the phonebook listing. That's probably why they called it that in the first place. Abbey National.

To me, this is another thing that seems very logical, but that the courts seem to have gotten tied up in knots.

Two mysterious calls are made, both extremely brief, both either don't actually go through, or are stopped after a second or two. One is to a number that is one of the first, if not the first in the speed dial numbers (Abbey Bank). The other is to her voicemail (which is also typically a speed dial set up on most phones). Why would a living, coherent Meredith ever make such calls? She wouldn't. And why would anyone else make such calls?

The only reason I can see is by mistake. It is consistent with a person who is trying to turn off the phone, but doesn't know how it works. So they try different buttons. (it would be interesting to know if those numbers were assigned speed dial positions on Meredith's phone).

Although I can't prove it 100%, the logical thing seems that Guede wanted to turn off the phones, so if anyone called Meredith, her flatmates would not hear her phones ringing inside her room, and wonder why she didn't answer. So he tried to turn them off. He turned off one of them, but the other he couldn't turn off. So he took them with him, and chucked them in the garden at the Lana's house. Can't be sure this is true, but it is a hell of a lot more logical than any of the theories set forth by either the prosecution or convicting judges.
 
Could see a pro guilt argument of "Why didn't he just pull the batteries though?"

Yes, but he was likely not thinking clearly, and, from my experience, opening the back of some phones, or even finding the battery opening can be a frustrating experience. The fact that one phone was turned off seems to support this theory.

Regardless, the idea that a living Meredith made these calls, (as speculated by Massei) makes no sense at all.
 
To me, this is another thing that seems very logical, but that the courts seem to have gotten tied up in knots.

Two mysterious calls are made, both extremely brief, both either don't actually go through, or are stopped after a second or two. One is to a number that is one of the first, if not the first in the speed dial numbers (Abbey Bank). The other is to her voicemail (which is also typically a speed dial set up on most phones). Why would a living, coherent Meredith ever make such calls? She wouldn't. And why would anyone else make such calls?

The only reason I can see is by mistake. It is consistent with a person who is trying to turn off the phone, but doesn't know how it works. So they try different buttons. (it would be interesting to know if those numbers were assigned speed dial positions on Meredith's phone).

Although I can't prove it 100%, the logical thing seems that Guede wanted to turn off the phones, so if anyone called Meredith, her flatmates would not hear her phones ringing inside her room, and wonder why she didn't answer. So he tried to turn them off. He turned off one of them, but the other he couldn't turn off. So he took them with him, and chucked them in the garden at the Lana's house. Can't be sure this is true, but it is a hell of a lot more logical than any of the theories set forth by either the prosecution or convicting judges.

I've always wondered if they might be pocket dials. I'm not familiar with which phone made the calls but if it wasn't a flip phone it's quite possible. I imagined Rudy rummaging through the purse looking for keys and cash and, with the mind of a thief, grabs both phones and puts them in his pocket. If he was walking down in the trees or an area with spotty service the phone would dial but not connect. Once he's closer to home the text message comes in and he suddenly realizes that having the phones on him is dangerous. He proceeds to toss them in the garden. Just a thought.
 
Could see a pro guilt argument of "Why didn't he just pull the batteries though?"


I don't think that's a reasonable pro-guilt argument. It's on a par with, why didn't he break in through the balcony?

Just because an alternative course of action might have been taken, that seems logical to us, doesn't mean a murderer would inevitably have taken that course of action.

It's not pro-guilt, it just adds fuzziness.
 
'wrong, wrong and wrong again'

I followed that alright, and got to

Quote:
Answering specific questions from the defence of Raffaele Sollecito, Dr. Lalli stated that death had intervened two to three hours after eating (page 47), while reaffirming that the emptying of the stomach generally occurs between two hours and a maximum of 4 hours after eating (page 62, hearing on April 3, 2009).
What time did Meredith eat? (ignoring for the moment 4 hours is wrong, wrong and wrong again under all circumstances where we are discussing gastric emptying commencement)



Nope.:)

We’re not. I dealt with the confusion in LJ’s response (which you are quoting) in the 2nd link. It’s not complicated.

Rolfe’s defence of her argument will hopefully put an end to this confusion.
 
Last edited:
I don't think that's a reasonable pro-guilt argument. It's on a par with, why didn't he break in through the balcony?

Just because an alternative course of action might have been taken, that seems logical to us, doesn't mean a murderer would inevitably have taken that course of action.

It's not pro-guilt, it just adds fuzziness.

I finished with the ersatz-debate on the "logical" entry point, when a guy quipped: "Why can't a stupid burglar choose a stupid point of entry?"
 
I don't think that's a reasonable pro-guilt argument. It's on a par with, why didn't he break in through the balcony?

Just because an alternative course of action might have been taken, that seems logical to us, doesn't mean a murderer would inevitably have taken that course of action.

It's not pro-guilt, it just adds fuzziness.

I honestly don't think the first thing I would try is to pull the battery myself but I thought I would throw it out.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.

Back
Top Bottom