Global warming discussion III

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Trakar said:
Most actual working scientists balk at these individuals being called "scientists"
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Morano's dung-palace is the obvious place to host their prepared message - they knew this was coming and that place is something of a clearing-house, professionally run and well-funded.

If anyone could write the book on talking to useful idiots it would be Morano. Goebbels was a hack in comparison, but then Goebbels suffered from actually believing in the cause he served. Having beliefs or principles is a terrible handicap.
 
greybeard said:
I don't think you realise what you are saying Haig. Are you saying that the earth is warmer, as your favourite source NASA confirms in spite of lower solar output?
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I don't think you realise what the NASA data is saying.

This from May 2006 (notice our present Solar Cycle 24 was expected to peak at a sunspot number of over 150)

Long Range Solar Forecast
Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries.
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This from Jun 2014 (notice our present Solar Cycle 24 is shown to actually peak at a sunspot number of just over 50, a third of what it was forecast to be in 2006)

Solar Mini-Max
the sunspot number for Solar Cycle 24 is near its peak right now.
They agree on another point, too: It is not very impressive.
"This solar cycle continues to rank among the weakest on record," comments Ron Turner of Analytic Services, Inc. who serves as a Senior Science Advisor to NASA's Innovative Advanced Concepts program. To illustrate the point, he plotted the smoothed sunspot number of Cycle 24 vs. the previous 23 cycles since 1755. "In the historical record, there are only a few Solar Maxima weaker than this one."
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What is also clear from this NASA information is the Solar Cycles in the 20th century were some of the strongest on record ie a Grand Solar Maximum and the natural cause of Global Warming as can be seen from these charts for the last 400 years. The first one is from NASA the second HERE ...




It also follows that as Solar Cycle 24 is weak and Solar Cycle 25 forecast to be the weakest for centuries and the 18 year Pause marks the peak in Global Warming and the rapid slide into a Grand Solar Minimum and Global Cooling as happened 400 years ago in the Maunder Minimum.

Grand solar minima and maxima
Grand solar minima occur when several solar cycles exhibit lesser than average activity for decades or centuries. Solar cycles still occur during these grand solar minimum periods but are at a lower intensity than usual. Grand solar minima have shown some correlation with global and regional climate changes.
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If you STILL have trouble understanding where this is heading this makes it very clear ...

The Coming Solar Cycle(s)

and this too ...

Sunspots and Global Cooling





Bicentennial Decrease of the Total Solar Irradiance Leads to Unbalanced Thermal Budget of the Earth and the Little Ice Age PDF
After the maximum of solar cycle 24, from approximately 2014 we can expect the start of the next bicentennial cycle of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 2055±11. Thus, long-term variations of TSI (with account for their direct and secondary, based on feedback effects, influence) are the main fundamental cause of climate changes since variations of the Earth climate is mainly determined by a long-term imbalance between the energy of solar radiation entering the upper layers of the Earth's atmosphere and the total energy emitted from the Earth back to space.
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Haig said:
This from Jun 2014 (notice our present Solar Cycle 24 is shown to actually peak at a sunspot number of just over 50, a third of what it was forecast to be in 2006)
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Doesn't say much for solar cycle forecasts, does it?

It also follows that as Solar Cycle 24 is weak and Solar Cycle 25 forecast to be the weakest for centuries ...
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And yet here you are depending on one.

... and the 18 year Pause marks the peak in Global Warming ...
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Warmest year on record, remember. Of course that's on the surface and global, but on the other hand that is where we live.

... and the rapid slide into a Grand Solar Minimum and Global Cooling as happened 400 years ago in the Maunder Minimum.
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By rapid, do you mean we'll see cooling in the next five years? Ten? Fifty?

If you STILL have trouble understanding where this is heading this makes it very clear ...
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Something on youtube and two denier blogs (iceagenow and icecap) do not evidence make.

A certain Piers Corbyn, of whom you may have heard, announced almost ten years ago that the world had already entered a long-term cooling trend. Your belief is going to fare no better.
 
Haig said:
thum_3823654a948f72e0e4.png
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Haig, look at this graph. Tell me, what does the blue line mean?

Why is it at roughly 0.2 instead of the 0.00 it claims to be?
 
CapelDodger said:
Doesn't say much for solar cycle forecasts, does it?

And yet here you are depending on one.

Warmest year on record, remember. Of course that's on the surface and global, but on the other hand that is where we live.

By rapid, do you mean we'll see cooling in the next five years? Ten? Fifty?

Something on youtube and two denier blogs (iceagenow and icecap) do not evidence make.

A certain Piers Corbyn, of whom you may have heard, announced almost ten years ago that the world had already entered a long-term cooling trend. Your belief is going to fare no better.
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ehcks said:
Haig, look at this graph. Tell me, what does the blue line mean?

Why is it at roughly 0.2 instead of the 0.00 it claims to be?
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Guys it's simply another Solar Cycle .... a 400 year one.

Some of the Grand Solar Minima have names like Oort, Wolf, Spoerer, Maunder, Dalton and others don't ... like the one we have started to enter ... see here http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/GrandMinima.gif


NASA have an idea of what is happening ...
Indeed, the sun could be on the threshold of a mini-Maunder event right now. Ongoing Solar Cycle 24 is the weakest in more than 50 years. Moreover, there is (controversial) evidence of a long-term weakening trend in the magnetic field strength of sunspots. Matt Penn and William Livingston of the National Solar Observatory predict that by the time Solar Cycle 25 arrives, magnetic fields on the sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Independent lines of research involving helioseismology and surface polar fields tend to support their conclusion. (Note: Penn and Livingston were not participants at the NRC workshop.)

“If the sun really is entering an unfamiliar phase of the solar cycle, then we must redouble our efforts to understand the sun-climate link,” notes Lika Guhathakurta of NASA’s Living with a Star Program, which helped fund the NRC study. “The report offers some good ideas for how to get started.”
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I know you hate WUWT but you shouldn't shoot the messenger ;) The end of the RED line is Jan 2013 and SC25 is set to be MUCH weaker.



Sun Headed Into Hibernation, Solar Studies Predict
The combined data indicate that we may soon be headed into what's known as a grand minimum, a period of unusually low solar activity.

The predicted solar "sleep" is being compared to the last grand minimum on record, which occurred between 1645 and 1715.

Known as the Maunder Minimum, the roughly 70-year period coincided with the coldest spell of the Little Ice Age, when European canals regularly froze solid and Alpine glaciers encroached on mountain villages.
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You are ALL so desperate to spin this into it's somehow OUR fault but if you stop and think about it ... ALL we can do is prepare for the inevitable New Little Ice Age.

You can think of what has happened and what is about to happen in this little analogy of mine :blush: ...

The variable Sun (TSI, UV, X-ray, Magnetic) is a gas flame heating, Earth, a pot of earth and water a lot until it boils, Global Warming of the 20th century.

Then the gas flame goes down a bit and the pot simmers, The Pause now!, the heat with "no statistically significant difference"

Then the gas flame goes down a lot and the pot of earth and water cools dramatically, New Little Ice Age from approx 2015 and long into the 21st century.

This scenario is just the nemesis of what you CAGW Alarmists have been shouting about for decades ... but you got it backwards and the cause of it all isn't Anthropogenic. :jaw-dropp
 
Haig said:
You can think of what has happened and what is about to happen in this little analogy of mine :blush: ...

The variable Sun (TSI, UV, X-ray, Magnetic) is a gas flame heating, Earth, a pot of earth and water a lot until it boils, Global Warming of the 20th century.

Then the gas flame goes down a bit and the pot simmers, The Pause now!, the heat with "no statistically significant difference"

Then the gas flame goes down a lot and the pot of earth and water cools dramatically, New Little Ice Age from approx 2015 and long into the 21st century.

This scenario is just the nemesis of what you CAGW Alarmists have been shouting about for decades ... but you got it backwards and the cause of it all isn't Anthropogenic. :jaw-dropp
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That's hilariously idiotic. It's little wonder you believe the ******* insane things you do if you think that atmospheric physics can be simplified into such a cretinous analogy.
 
bit_pattern said:
That's hilariously idiotic. It's little wonder you believe the ******* insane things you do if you think that atmospheric physics can be simplified into such a cretinous analogy.
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And YOU think a trace gas (Co2) does fit the bill ? That's hilariously idiotic :D
 
Haig said:
Guys it's simply another Solar Cycle .... a 400 year one.

Some of the Grand Solar Minima have names like Oort, Wolf, Spoerer, Maunder, Dalton and others don't ... like the one we have started to enter ... see here http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/GrandMinima.gif


NASA have an idea of what is happening ...



I know you hate WUWT but you shouldn't shoot the messenger ;) The end of the RED line is Jan 2013 and SC25 is set to be MUCH weaker.
[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/imagehosting/thum_3823654ba3eafdafb1.jpg[/qimg]


Sun Headed Into Hibernation, Solar Studies Predict



You are ALL so desperate to spin this into it's somehow OUR fault but if you stop and think about it ... ALL we can do is prepare for the inevitable New Little Ice Age.

You can think of what has happened and what is about to happen in this little analogy of mine :blush: ...

The variable Sun (TSI, UV, X-ray, Magnetic) is a gas flame heating, Earth, a pot of earth and water a lot until it boils, Global Warming of the 20th century.

Then the gas flame goes down a bit and the pot simmers, The Pause now!, the heat with "no statistically significant difference"

Then the gas flame goes down a lot and the pot of earth and water cools dramatically, New Little Ice Age from approx 2015 and long into the 21st century.

This scenario is just the nemesis of what you CAGW Alarmists have been shouting about for decades ... but you got it backwards and the cause of it all isn't Anthropogenic. :jaw-dropp
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Haig do you just skip over the bits in your links that don't agree with what you want to believe?
From your link:

"We have some interesting hints that solar activity is associated with climate, but we don't understand the association," said Dean Pesnell, project scientist for NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

Also, even if there is a climate link, Pesnell doesn't think another grand minimum is likely to trigger a cold snap. "With what's happening in current times—we've added considerable amounts of carbon dioxide and methane and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere," said Pesnell, who wasn't involved in the suite of new sun studies.

"I don't think you'd see the same cooling effects today if the sun went into another Maunder Minimum-type behavior."
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greybeard said:
Haig do you just skip over the bits in your links that don't agree with what you want to believe?
From your link:
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greybeard said:
Oh dear Lord!
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So you prefer to ignore Solar history repeating itself every 400 years ? That's hilariously idiotic http://www.vukcevic.co.uk/GrandMinima.gif

As for humans breaking this pattern, nope not even close :D

What your explanation for the Pause ? If you can't explain the 'pause', you can't explain the cause...:p
In the conclusion to the open access paper McKitrick wrote that in the Met office surface data “we compute a hiatus length of 19 years, and in the lower tropospheric data we compute a hiatus length of 16 years in the UAH series and 26 years in the RSS series”.

The existence of the pause in global warming was acknowledged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year but there has been significant debate about the actual duration of this hiatus with some commentators alleging that the length is exaggerated by cherry-picking the start date as 1998 – a particularly warm year.

McKitrick says that the statistical analysis technique he used avoids potential biases and is immune to the charge of cherry-picking.
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Haig said:
So you prefer to ignore Solar history repeating itself every 400 years ? That's hilariously idiotic
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So how do you explain the interglacial cycles? Can you please describe how changes solar irradiance alone are enough to warm the planet to the degree that it does between ice ages? And if not the sun then what does explain the balmy conditions we've enjoyed throughout the Holocene?
 
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